Why China, Russia Have Not Joined War With Iran, And Don't Plan To

It has been nearly a week since the US and Israel carried out a coordinated attack on Iran, killing its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Tehran has since launched a fierce counterstrike, targeting US bases in the Middle East and plunging the region into chaos.

A question doing the rounds is why China and Russia, Tehran's powerful diplomatic partners, have not come to its aid militarily. Beijing and Moscow have slammed the war in Iran and condemned Khamenei's assassination.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said the killing is a "cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law". China's Foreign Affairs Minister Wang Yi told his Israeli counterpart Gideon Saar, "Force cannot truly solve problems; instead, it often creates new ones and leaves serious long-term consequences."

Both Russia and China have requested an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council, but for all the sharp remarks and diplomatic moves, they have not acted militarily in Iran's support.

Russia Does Not Want Another War

Russia is already fighting Ukraine in a long-drawn-out conflict and does not want to be drawn into another war in the Middle East. Interestingly, Russia and Iran signed a strategic partnership treaty in January last year. This pact deepened intelligence and defence coordination, but does not have a mutual defence clause.

So, Moscow is not bound to respond because the agreement stops short of a formal military alliance. Andrey Kortunov, former director general of the Russian International Affairs Council and a member of Russian foreign policy think tank Valdai Discussion Club, told Al Jazeera that Russia's 2024 treaty with North Korea is an example of a "more binding" agreement on military support.

Under that agreement, he said, Russia would be obliged to join North Korea "in any conflict the country might get involved in". But in the case of Iran, "it just mentioned that both sides agreed to abstain from any hostile actions in case the other side is engaged in conflict".

Kortunov added that Moscow appears to be "prioritising the United States mediation in the conflict with Ukraine". Kremlin has said in a statement that Russia "has not received any requests for assistance" from Iran.

China Has Its Priorities Clear

China, another long-time ally of Iran, is unlikely to risk its interests by confronting Washington and helping its long-standing partner, according to reports.

Jodie Wen, a postdoctoral fellow at the Centre for International Security and Strategy at China's Tsinghua University, told Al Jazeera,

"From the political side, we have regular exchange. On the economic side, the cooperation is very deep; many enterprises have investments in Iran." But Beijing, she said, has drawn clear limits to the partnership. "The Chinese government always adheres to not interfering in other countries' issues ... I do not think the Chinese government would send weapons to Iran," she said.

Significantly, the war in the Middle East endangers Chinese interests. Iran's threats have effectively stopped traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf's only access to the Arabian Sea. Among other Asian economies, China imports oil from the Middle East, and the blockade will stretch its supplies.

There is also the upcoming summit between President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump. "The Iran crisis is unlikely to derail the Trump-Xi summit unless the United States launches a sweeping crackdown on Iran-China (oil) flows," Dan Wang, China Director for the Eurasia Group, told AFP. "Beijing views Iran as a strategic partner rather than a military ally. China also values its relationship with other Gulf states, making direct military support beyond rhetoric highly unlikely," he added. According to the AFP report, experts say stockpiles will help Beijing endure short-term disruptions in supply.