4 Reasons Why Iran Conflict Is Full Of Surprises

The bombing of Iran's nuclear assets exposes Washington to a new warfront. Officials suggest that President Trump mobilised bomber jets over the Middle East after multiple attempts to bring Tehran back to the table to discuss its nuclear programme failed. But Iran remains undeterred in its atomic ambitions and has vowed to strike back.

A series of surprises has emerged in this entire episode, reflecting the uncertainty that binds war zones:

Peacemaker to B-2 Bomber

Trump has been vociferously claiming credit for stopping wars around the world, including the India-Pakistan conflict, arguing he must now receive the Nobel Prize for bringing peace to a war-torn world.

But he wouldn't get one, he lamented yesterday in a social media post.

Trump's self-claimed peacemaker label dates back to his MAGA campaign. Ahead of the elections, he promised a calmer world, telling his supporters, "We're uniting forces to end the endless foreign wars."

His declaration was met with a round of applause.

Read: B2 Bombers, Bunker Busters, Tomahawks: The Weapons US Used To Strike Iran

By June 22, that had changed. Trump, who repeatedly slammed his predecessors for getting involved in foreign wars, was convinced that some wars are meant to be fought, not avoided, after his ultimatums failed to achieve dialogue.

The Washington Post quoted a senior official as saying that Trump probably knew a breakthrough wouldn't be possible. Maybe this is why, "the Pentagon was putting a plan together" through the week, the official said.

Trump's 2-Week Window A Bluff?

The US appeared largely undecided on whether to get involved in the Middle East crisis, even 48 hours before the strikes. But ally Israel, which claims Iran is a threat to its existence, insisted on Washington's participation in its aggression against Iran.

President Trump made an evacuation call to Tehran's residents on June 17, raising an alarm of an imminent US attack. But a day later, he again gave mixed signals. "I may do it, I may not do it - nobody knows what I'm going to do," he said on June 18.

On June 20, he sought a two-week window to make a decision. But with none of his efforts able to convince Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, he ordered the B-2 stealth bombers to take out nuclear sites in Iran.

Israel's Air Superiority

The latest flareup in the Middle East began with Israel's Operation Rising Lion on June 13. A dozen Israeli jets carried out pre-dawn hits on Iranian nuclear and military targets, including the Natanz uranium enrichment site. With key missile storage and air defences destroyed in the multi-layered attacks that involved Mossad setting up a covert drone launch site near Tehran, Israel declared "air superiority" over Iran.

Read: Trump Sought 2-Week Window For Iran: What Made Him Attack In 2 Days

Russia, which boasts a much larger fighter fleet than Ukraine, still hasn't claimed air superiority over Ukraine despite fighting the war for three years.

While Gaza - with no air power - was an easy target for Israel, piercing Iran's airspace was a challenge that Tel Aviv overcame easily in overnight strikes, ignoring Tehran's air capabilities that included hypersonic missiles and air defences. 

Wall St Ignores Middle East

The Wall Street, where the world's biggest companies trade, has remained largely unimpacted during the conflict.

S&P 500, which tracks the leading 500 companies listed on US stock exchanges, has made only marginal losses since the Israeli attacks began this month. It opened at 6,000 points on June 13 and closed at 5,967 on June 20. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index opened at 19,450 on June 13 and closed at 19,447 on June 20.

US futures were down about 0.5% in the morning, indicating that the markets would open lower this evening after the weekend break.

In India, analysts suggest the conflict's impact will be limited on domestic markets, and that the timing and nature of Iran's retaliation is an uncertain factor that risks a stronger response from the US.