- Bangladesh marks two years since student protests ousted Sheikh Hasina's government in 2024
- India-Bangladesh ties were strained, and Tarique Rahman became PM, but they are now showing signs of a reset
- India and Bangladesh appoint new envoys, signalling efforts to improve bilateral relations
Bangladesh is marking the second anniversary of the student-led protests that toppled former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's government.
Hasina had to flee the country on August 05, 2024, as mobs laid siege to her residence after days of protests across the country that led to the downfall of her government.
Minutes after she left her official residence, Gana Bhavan, a mob broke into her home and ransacked and looted the premises. Hasina was evacuated on a military plane and flown to Delhi, where she is believed to be residing till today.
What followed was a crackdown on her party, the Awami League, as the new dispensation accused it of serious crimes like forced disappearances.
Since then, Bangladesh has seen an interim government, and the democratically elected government finally took over this year in February, with Tarique Rahman becoming the Prime Minister of the country.
As the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus took over, anti-India sentiments and radical voices were emboldened in Bangladesh, and the India-Bangladesh relationship deteriorated, with Yunus making statements that were seen as a threat to India's Northeast region. Things seemed to turn around only after the new government took charge, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi inviting Rahman to visit India.
While that visit to India is yet to happen, Rahman visited Malaysia and China for his first official visit abroad as prime minister.
Two Years Since Hasina's Ouster, India Still Her Home
The fleeing of Hasina and arrival in New Delhi became a sore point in the India-Bangladesh ties, but the current establishment in Bangladesh has made it clear that her return is a legal procedure that will take its course. This is being interpreted as a way to work on mending ties while parking the Hasina issue for a legal resolution, rather than a diplomatic one.
However, Bangladesh continues to describe her as a 'fugitive criminal' and has asked New Delhi not to allow her to engage in political activities or make political statements from Indian soil.
Hasina's interaction at the Foreign Correspondents Club of South Asia has led to consternation from the Bangladesh side. On Monday, Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh, Dinesh Trivedi, met Humayun Kabir, Tarique Rahman's adviser on foreign affairs, at the Prime Minister's Office in Tejgaon, Dhaka.
Bangladesh conveyed it expects India's cooperation to ensure that neither Hasina nor any individual associated with a banned organisation uses Indian territory to deliver political speeches or conduct activities aimed at destabilising the situation within Bangladesh.
"We do not want India-Bangladesh relations to be harmed by the statements of fugitive accused individuals," Shama Obayed Islam, Bangladesh's minister of state for foreign affairs, told reporters in Dhaka.
Tarique Rahman's Visit To India Will Be An Ice Breaker
India has made it clear that it wants to engage with the new dispensation in Bangladesh. PM Modi was among the first world leaders to congratulate Rahman after his election victory and invited him to visit India.
While Rahman chose Malaysia and China for his first official visit abroad, he may visit India for his next visit abroad.
One of the events that Rahman could be a part of is the BRICS summit in New Delhi. He has been invited and could attend the summit in his role as the chair of BIMSTEC as part of the larger BRICS outreach efforts led by India.
The 18th BRICS Summit is the upcoming international summit of the BRICS nations, scheduled to be hosted by India in New Delhi later this month as part of India's BRICS chairmanship.
After a meeting with Bangladesh's Foreign Minister Dr Khalilur Rahman, India's High Commissioner to Bangladesh, Dinesh Trivedi, said, "From our side, I can tell you for sure that we are anxiously waiting for a visit from the Honourable Prime Minister of Bangladesh to India, and I am sure in the near future it will happen. We are very hopeful and we are looking forward to it."
However, as the term of Bangladesh's High Commissioner to India, Riaz Hamidullah, nears its end, Bangladesh has appointed a new High Commissioner to India, and the visit could also happen after Dhaka's top diplomat and serving Foreign Secretary, Asad Alam Siam, arrives in India on what is considered one of Bangladesh's most important diplomatic assignments.
The Teesta-Ganga Sticking Point
Two transnational rivers, the Teesta and the Ganga, have been key elements of the India-Bangladesh relationship, and in both areas, there have been challenges when it comes to the bilateral relationship.
On the Teesta front, a joint statement issued after the conclusion of Rahman's visit to China said, "The two sides agreed to deepen cooperation in such areas as integrated water resources management, water resources planning, hydrological forecasting, flood prevention and disaster reduction, and river dredging, and related technology sharing. The Chinese side will provide support and help within its capacity to the Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project (TRCMRP) and support experts from both countries in expediting the feasibility study of the project and relevant work."
The Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project (TRCMRP) is being closely watched in India, particularly because of the project's geographical proximity to the strategically important Siliguri Corridor (Chicken's Neck).
India is watching the developments very closely and responded to the development, saying, "India's development assistance for projects in Bangladesh is based on a mutually agreed roadmap which is regularly reviewed. Our views on the Teesta River project have been previously conveyed to the Bangladeshi side. We will factor all related developments in our overall approach to the Teesta issue."
When it comes to the Ganga, the Ganga Water Treaty, a 30-year bilateral agreement signed on December 12, 1996, expires this year. There has been no breakthrough yet when it comes to the renewal of the treaty. When asked about the issue, Dinesh Trivedi said, "There is no issue that cannot be resolved. Whatever is necessary in the interests of the people of both countries will be done."
While there have been efforts by both sides to rebuild confidence, the Teesta issue appears to remain a bone of contention.
However, any significant movement on the Ganga Water agreement will be a major step forward in improving ties.
India has reiterated that discussions on the Ganga Water Treaty with Bangladesh will take place through the existing bilateral mechanism between the two countries. India says all water-related issues, including the Ganga Water Treaty, are addressed through established bilateral channels.
"There are 54 rivers that are shared between India and Bangladesh; any discussion on Ganga water treaty will also be held as part of bilateral mechanism that we have in place," says MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal.
Border Issues: Conversations On Fencing And Pushback
India has begun to enhance border fencing initiatives, especially in West Bengal, the state that shares the largest border with Bangladesh. Last month, Union Home Minister Amit Shah said the Siliguri corridor in West Bengal, which was "once a corridor of infiltration under previous governments", is now becoming synonymous with a secure border.
India shares a 4,096 km border with Bangladesh, of which more than half – 2,216 km – lies in West Bengal, while Tripura shares an 856 km, and Assam a 267 km. India has also adopted a new "push back" strategy to tackle illegal infiltration from Bangladesh and used it to deport illegal immigrants, including Rohingyas.
Bangladesh has protested the move, and in some cases the exercise has resulted in standoffs with the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB). As India toughens its stand on illegal infiltration, coupled with the completion of border fencing and 'pushbacks', the issue has often become a flashpoint in bilateral ties.
New Envoys To Navigate Bangladesh-India Ties In Reset
As India and Bangladesh navigate a transitional phase in their relationship, serving Foreign Secretary Asad Alam Siam's appointment and posting in India will be significant.
A career diplomat, Siam joined the Bangladesh Foreign Service in 1995. Throughout his diplomatic career, he has served extensively both at home in Bangladesh and abroad. Siam's appointment as High Commissioner to India shows that Bangladesh still sees the role as one of Bangladesh's most important diplomatic assignments.
India has also appointed a new High Commissioner to Bangladesh – a senior politician from West Bengal, Dinesh Trivedi – who has served as Union Minister for Railways and Minister of State for Health and Family Welfare in the union government.
Apart from meeting Dr Khalilur Rahman and his deputy Shama Obayed Islam, Trivedi's initial moves, like relaxations on issuing visas and reaching out to the Bangladeshi establishment, including meetings with Rahman's foreign affairs advisor Humayun Kabir, have signalled that a reset in ties is underway.
