- Wall Street analysts project airlines could save millions on fuel from lighter passengers
- A 10% drop in passenger weight may reduce aircraft weight by 2%, cutting fuel costs by 1.5%
- Fuel costs make up nearly 19% of major US airlines' operating expenses, about $39 billion in 2026
Wall Street analysts have projected that airlines could save millions on fuel costs as the increasing popularity of weight loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy leads to a "slimmer society" of passengers. According to a CNBC report, a 10% reduction in average passenger weight could lead to a 2% decrease in total aircraft weight, resulting in fuel cost savings of up to 1.5%. Since fuel costs are airlines' largest expense, these potential savings are significant. Analysts at Jefferies estimate this could boost earnings per share by up to 4% for major airlines, with American Airlines potentially seeing an 11.7% increase.
"A slimmer society = lower fuel consumption. Airlines have a history of being vigilant around aircraft weight savings, from olives (pitless, of course) to paper stock," the Wall Street firm said in a note to clients.
Fuel Savings: In Numbers
Notably, the four largest US airlines - American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, and Southwest Airlines - are expected to burn around 16 billion gallons of fuel in 2026, costing them nearly $39 billion at $2.41 per gallon. This fuel expenditure accounts for almost 19% of their total operating expenses.
A 2% reduction in average passenger weight could boost earnings per share by around 4% for major airlines, with potential gains of 2.8% for Delta, 3.5% for United, 4.2% for Southwest, and 11.7% for American Airlines. This is because a 1% weight reduction improves fuel efficiency by 0.75%, and weight is a key driver of fuel efficiency, according to aircraft manufacturers like Boeing.
How Weight Affects Fuel Efficiency
Weight plays a huge role in aviation fuel efficiency. Jefferies analysts used a Boeing 737 Max 8 as an example, which has an operating empty weight of 99,000 pounds, with 46,000 pounds of fuel capacity and 36,000 pounds of payload. With 178 passengers at 180 pounds each, passengers account for 32,000 pounds. A 10% reduction in average passenger weight would cut total passenger weight by 3,200 pounds, or 2% of maximum takeoff weight, leading to significant fuel savings across thousands of flights annually.
Airlines have long focused on weight reduction to save fuel, including using lighter paper for in-flight magazines or installing lighter seats, as fuel is their single largest operating cost.
