- Markets surged after US-Iran ceasefire, but gold prices rose independently of equities and oil
- Oil prices dropped sharply, with Brent crude down nearly 6% and US oil falling as much as 15%
- Equities rallied strongly, pushing the S&P 500 close to record highs and Bitcoin above $72,000
Markets ripped higher after the US-Iran ceasefire, but gold refused to play along.
Oil prices tumbled after US President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week truce and reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude fell nearly 6%, while US oil dropped as much as 15%. Equities surged, sending the S&P 500 to within roughly 3.5% of record highs near 6,800. Bitcoin pushed above $72,000.
The move was instant.
"The under-reported insight here is that the time preference of US investors is about 2 weeks," said Baron Koch, head of capital markets at Braiins.
That short-term thinking is showing up across markets.
Kobelsi's letter calls the market reaction "very telling," noting that equities have snapped back toward recent highs despite war-driven volatility. It also pointed out that equity exposure has fallen to its lowest level since May 2025, leaving "trillions of dollars of sidelined capital" ready to move.
That cash is helping drive the rebound.
Gold, however, is telling a different story.
June gold futures rose about 4% to roughly $4,851 an ounce after the ceasefire. Silver jumped more than 6% to around $76. The gains came even as stocks and crypto rallied, suggesting investors are not simply rotating into risk.
"Oil fell 16%. Equities rallied hard. Gold up 4% on the same tape. That's not correlation with markets. That's gold moving independently on a day when everything else moved together. Why did precious metals hold a bid on a day when the 'crisis over' trade was fully on? Relief is one answer. The market not being fully convinced is another. Precious metals don't rally like this when a crisis ends. They rally when people aren't sure it has. Two weeks is a countdown, not a resolution. Watch the facts. Not the statements," said analyst Vinod Sreenivasan.
The split is about time horizon.
Stocks and digital assets are reacting to the immediate easing in geopolitical risk. Gold is still being supported by bigger forces: heavy AI spending, stubborn inflation pressures, fiscal deficits and supply-chain shifts.
"Magnificent 7 companies are investing over $600 BILLION in AI CapEx this year alone," Kobelsi noted. That kind of spending keeps long-term growth and inflation expectations elevated, regardless of short-term headlines.
At the same time, fiscal deficits and supply-chain realignments continue to keep medium-term inflation concerns alive.
That's why the ceasefire can calm oil and lift equities without knocking gold off course.
The message from the market is clear: relief in the short term, caution in the long term.
"Own assets or be left behind," Kobelsi says. Gold's behaviour suggests one more condition: own assets that still remember the risks everyone else is trying to forget.
