- Kim Ju Ae, Kim Jong Un's daughter, may soon be named North Korea's next leader
- Kim Ju Ae has appeared publicly since 2022, including at missile tests and Beijing visit
- Kim Yo Jong, Kim Jong Un's sister, is a powerful figure who may challenge Ju Ae's succession
North Korea could be headed for a tense family showdown. South Korea's spy agency says Kim Jong Un's teenage daughter, Kim Ju Ae, is close to being named the country's next leader, a move that could set her against her powerful aunt, Kim Yo Jong, in a future fight for control.
South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) told lawmakers last week that Kim Ju Ae, believed to be around 13, is nearing formal designation as heir. The timing is crucial, with North Korea preparing its biggest political conference later this month, where Kim Jong Un is expected to set major goals and tighten his grip.
In a closed-door briefing, NIS officials said they are watching whether Kim Ju Ae appears with her father before thousands of delegates at the upcoming Workers' Party Congress.
Kim Ju Ae first appeared publicly at a long-range missile test in November 2022. Since then, she has joined her father at more events, from weapons tests and military parades to factory visits. She even travelled with him to Beijing last September for a meeting with China's leader on the sidelines of a World War II event.
Officials in Seoul had earlier doubted that a girl could be chosen to lead North Korea, pointing to the country's conservative, male-dominated leadership. But Kim Ju Ae's frequent appearances have forced a rethink. In a previous assessment, the NIS told lawmakers that bringing her to China likely helped build a narrative for her succession.
The Aunt Who Could Challenge The Crown
A potential challenge could come from Kim Yo Jong, Kim Jong Un's sister. At 38, she is seen as the second most powerful figure in North Korea and enjoys strong political and military backing.
Kim Yo Jong currently holds a senior position in the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, and is reported to have influence over her brother.
A former senior South Korean intelligence official, Rah Jong Yil, warned that a power struggle is "probable" and said Kim Yo Jong would move to take the top job if she believed she had a chance, New York Post reported. He argued there would be "no reasons" for her to hold back from pursuing her own political project.
Rah told The Telegraph, "It depends on the timing, but I believe if Kim Yo Jong believed that she had a chance of becoming the top leader then she would take it. For her, there are no reasons to refrain from putting into effect her own political project."
Kim Yo Jong has built a fearsome reputation inside and outside North Korea. Known for her cutting remarks, she regularly issues statements in her own name.
In 2022, she targeted South Korea's defence minister with one of her harshest comments yet, calling him "a senseless and scum-like guy" and warning that Seoul could face "a miserable fate little short of total destruction and ruin," The Guardian had reported.
"The senseless and scum-like guy dare mention a preemptive strike at a nuclear weapons state," Kim Yo Jong said in a statement carried by state media. "South Korea may face a serious threat owing to the reckless remarks made by its defense minister."
She added another warning, "South Korea should discipline itself if it wants to stave off disaster."
A December report published on 38 North, the website of the US-based think tank Stimson Centre, had also raised concerns about potential "turbulence" should Kim Jong Un suddenly die. The analysis also underscored the "high likelihood of a power struggle emerging between Kim Jong Un and his potential successor candidates."
According to the report, "in the immediate term, more politically established candidates, like Kim Yo Jong, are more likely to succeed in the event of Kim Jong-un's sudden death or serious illness."
In contrast, other potential successors, including Kim Ju‑ae and her siblings, believed to be two boys, "are still too young and unestablished to realistically be considered for succession in the coming five to 15 years." the report noted.
The report further emphasised that Kim Yo Jong holds an advantage. "Kim Yo-jong, for example, will be able to immediately outmanoeuvre the others due to the political and military support she has garnered within the [Workers' Party of Korea]," the report stated.
A Brutal Family History
North Korea has seen brutal internal purges before. After taking power in 2011, Kim Jong Un moved against his uncle and mentor, Jang Song Thaek, who was executed by firing squad in 2013 following accusations of "anti-party, counter-revolutionary, factional acts."
Kim's half-brother, Kim Jong Nam, the one-time heir to North Korea, was also killed when a pair of women smeared the deadly VX nerve agent on his face at Malaysia's Kuala Lumpur International Airport in 2017.
North Korea's Growing Nuclear Stockpile
North Korea today is regarded as one of the world's most heavily armed nuclear countries. The country is estimated to have assembled 50 nuclear warheads, as of January 2024, and to have the fissile material for an estimated 70-90 nuclear weapons, as well as advanced chemical and biological weapons programmes. In the past several years Pyongyang has accelerated the pace of ballistic missile testing.
(With inputs from agencies)
