New York City Mayor Eric Adams bowed out of his struggling reelection campaign Sunday, but the decision may be too late to fundamentally alter the outcome of the November election to replace him.
Adams' decision to withdraw, amid faltering poll numbers and a struggle to raise money, was a long-speculated outcome by donors and sought by others who hoped to boost former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's chances to defeat frontrunner Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist.
But political analysts questioned Sunday whether the decision can make a difference with just 37 days until Election Day.
Multiple polls show Mamdani likely to win the election in November, in most cases by double digits, while Adams has consistently polled in fourth place in a four-candidate field that also includes Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa, the founder of the Guardian Angels.
Andrew Cuomo
But with Adams' withdrawal, even if every voter who had planned to cast a ballot for him decided to vote for Cuomo instead, it still wouldn't be enough to overcome Mamdani's current polling advantages, strategists and pollsters suggested.
"If it had happened a few weeks or a few months ago, it would have represented a real sea change. It would have been a real shot in the arm for Andrew Cuomo's effort to beat Mamdani," said Evan Roth Smith, a founding partner at Slingshot Strategies.
Mamdani, 33, posted a video of him responding to Adams' decision and quickly turning it to Cuomo.
"Andrew Cuomo, you got your wish," Mamdani said. "You wanted Trump and your billionaire friends to help you clear the field. But don't forget, you wanted me as your opponent in the primary, too. And we beat you by 13 points. Looking forward to doing it again on November 4. Hope you're well," he said.
Adams, 65, also missed a Sept. 11 deadline to have his name removed from the ballot, so it will still appear as a possible choice for voters despite his decision to drop out.
Adams' withdrawal "doesn't represent as much of a reordering of the race as it could have if it had happened earlier," Smith said. "It's too little too late to really make this a whole new ballgame."
Zohran Mamdani
Some polls have shown Cuomo, 67, stands a better chance of competing with Mamdani in a head-to-head contest, a hypothetical scenario that would require Sliwa to drop out. But Sliwa has repeatedly insisted he will not bow out, despite repeated entreaties.
"They have come up with all kinds of ways to get me out of the race. And truly the only way would be if something unfortunate happened to me, like me being hit by a Mack truck," Sliwa, 71, told Bloomberg in an interview in July. "That's not happening."
Sliwa doesn't view a potential Mamdani mayoralty as the "existential" threat that some people pressuring him to drop out of the race believe it would be, Smith said.
"I think Curtis Sliwa can live with a New York City where he loses honorably and Zohran Mamdani is the mayor," Smith said.
Adams' withdrawal could make an immediate impact in fundraising.
Some potential donors have been waiting to see if the field consolidates behind fewer anti-Mamdani candidates before choosing to give. On Sunday, after Adams announced plans to drop out, several donors reached out to representatives of Fix the City, a PAC backing Cuomo's candidacy, to discuss giving to the PAC, a source familiar with the conversations said.
Some political strategists suggested Adams dropping out could actually damage Cuomo. The New York Times reported the former governor spoke with Donald Trump about getting involved in the race to stop Mamdani.
"If I'm Mamdani, I think one of the narratives coming out of this campaign would be that Andrew Cuomo and Donald Trump got exactly what they wanted" when Adams dropped out, said Basil Smikle Jr., former executive director of the New York State Democratic Party and a professor at Columbia University's School of Professional Studies.
Cuomo should not assume Adams' withdrawal means the path toward victory has become easier, said Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf.
"It's a mistake for Cuomo to think Adams dropping out means this race is locked up," said Sheinkopf, who runs a pro-Adams PAC. "Cuomo has very high negatives. It will be hard for him to make a comparative argument. And unless voters really understand who Mamdani is, why would they vote against him?"
"Cuomo will argue he's more qualified and has more experience to run the city," Sheinkopf added. "But if that were truly believable, he wouldn't have lost the primary so badly. The basic argument is still the same - you've got to define Mamdani."
