- Donald Trump signs framework to end US-Israel war with Iran that began February 28
- The war has cost the US $111 billion, a majority of which was spent on missiles and weapons
- Trump now invokes Defense Production Act to boost missile and bomb production amid depleted stocks
On Wednesday Donald Trump signed the framework for a peace deal with Iran, an agreement to end a war the US and Israel began in February 28. Based on Pentagon estimates, the war has cost the US $111 billion, most spent on missiles.
A week before that the president signed an order to 'force' American defence firms to make more missiles and bombs, because it had used up a chunk of its munitions and weapons stockpiles in compelling Iran to re-open a global energy chokehold that had been open before fighting began and to agree to restrict a nuclear programme that had already been under limits.
CNN reported this week Trump's order stated 'the president finds conditions exist which may pose a direct threat to the national defense or its preparedness programs', and referred to 'systemic constraints in the munitions industrial base'.
These 'constraints', Trump claimed, include 'limited production capacity, fragile supply chains... related production bottlenecks (that) may impair the ability of the US to produce, sustain, and expand availability of munitions, missiles for national defense".
One of the more widely reported takeaways from this war has been the rapid pace at which American missile stocks - specifically Patriot and THAAD interceptors - have been depleted, even leading to concerns of knock-on impact on US allies in Europe and Asia, who rely on American air defence cover to keep Russia and China at bay.
Patriot missile battery (File)
Iran's tactic in the early days - of firing swarms of cheap mass-produced Shahed drones - overwhelmed US air defences and boxed Washington into a necessary but costly situation. US forces had to continue firing expensive missiles - a Patriot costs $4 million each - to take down a drone that cost just $20,000 because ignoring even one meant risks to critical targets.
That cost offset is a problem the US still hasn't really answered, except to keep firing its more expensive interceptors. And Iran strikes that disabled THAAD batteries in the region put even more pressure on the available Patriot launchers.
CNN this week noted the Pentagon's long-held concern on this topic, that the war had exposed the defence industry's ability to produce weapons at the rate needed. It isn't just a military problem.
By most estimates the US has fired billions worth of interceptors, missiles, and rockets, as well as jet fuel and other operational costs. The final two days of bombing alone cost over $200 million in munitions alone, Trump said this week.
RECAP | Iran's Missiles Still Flying, So Is Hormuz Threat. US May Be Running Out
"...those last two days were brutal. $200 million worth of bombs. And it is expensive too, by the way, aside from everything else," he said at a press meet during the G7 Summit in Switzerland.
The president and his administration have, understandably, downplayed any talk of the US running out of missiles. The White House told CBS News the narrative is a "manufactured story that the media wants to peddle".
What law did Trump sign?
He invoked the Defense Production Act, a 1950s legislation that essentially gives the president power to compel the manufacturing sector to make weapons - missiles, bombs, guns, etc.
This isn't the first time he has leaned on this law; he did so during the COVID pandemic too, but then it was to increase production of medical equipment, like ventilators and face masks.
Trump's predecessor, Joe Biden, used it to focus on clean energy technologies.
And what about Iran?
In April and May NDTV reported on US intel that said only a third of Iran's vast missile arsenal - the largest in the Middle East - had been destroyed, and that Tehran had restored access to 30 of 33 missile launch sites along the Strait of Hormuz.
RECAP | Trump's Iran 'Knocked Out' Claim Blown Up By US Intel On Missiles, Drones
This despite Trump's many claims of having destroyed Tehran's military, a claim he repeated this week as he signed the peace deal, when he said: "The military capabilities of their evil regime are crumbling."
However, shortly afterwards, reports by The New York Times, CNN, and The Washington Post offered a sobering reality check. All three cited US and allied intel sources as saying Iran still had 70 to 75 per cent of its missiles.
So what now?
A pause. Hopefully a permanent one.
The agreement calls for an immediate end to all fighting, in Iran and Lebanon, and requires American forces to pull back from the region within 30 days of signing a final deal.
That deal will include steps for Tehran to hand over a stockpile of 440kg of 60 per cent uranium enriched - below the 90 per cent weaponisation threshold but enough to make bombs. Squabbles over how it will be turned over could derail any peace.
