hello and welcome to this big fight special. As we count down to 2024 with heightened anticipation of what the year holds for us, we decided to bring to you five ideas that could shape the new Year. The year 2023 brought forth many firsts. India hosted a historic G 20 summit. Indian Space Research Organisation became a Trailblazer to land on Moon's South pole. Indian economy became a bright spot amidst global economic slowdown. C gpt became a part of living room conversations and a I only showed its challenges have just begun. Will 2024 witness a fight of ideas and that's on the big fight today, 2023 made a science fiction dream come true. The customer service role is becoming more automated as tools like chatbots and virtual assistance handle a broader range of customer inquiries and requests. Research centric positions like market research, analyst and financial analysts are being performed by artificial intelligence. Many administrative tasks completed by paralegals are within the range of a I capabilities. I anchors became a fad as well, and we have just begun. The year witnessed a big rise of generalised A I chat bots open a IS chat. GP T demonstrated how computers can have intelligent conversations with people. The growing popularity of A I will surge in 2024 with people and businesses across the globe rapidly experimenting with technology to meet this growing demand. Meta, in fact, is planning to introduce 28 different special purpose bots and according to the World Economic Forums, the Future of Jobs report A. I is expected to replace 85 million jobs worldwide by 2024. Though that sounds scary, the report goes on to say that it will also create 97 million new jobs in that same time frame. I also invaded privacy with Dake, forcing countries including India to issue regulations. So to discuss this, let me bring in my guests. Joining me first are two young professionals who were named in Forbes 30 under 30. Abhinav and Raghav Agarwal are founders of fluid A. I let me begin by asking both of you, Abhinav and Raghav is artificial intelligence. Now, new beings like human beings among us, I think one of the big themes we're seeing that's going to come out next year, and at Fluid, we already have some big experiments in our labs is autonomous agents is going to become a reality, which is basically a bunch of a I is working on their own right. Right now, it's a very prompt culture. So you prompt the A I the A. I prompts back, but it soon going to have the autonomous A IS that are able to interact with each other and solve a given problem. So whether it's handling a customer support call end to end with, you know, amazing voice and integrations at the back, or whether it's an deciding what to invest into the stock market, they are just going to be completely autonomous and and do the end to end for you and yeah, And when it comes to this whole Frankenstein thing, I think at fluid we have a very different opinion. I think what's gonna happen is they're just gonna be like a I beings among us, right? They're gonna sort of be part of our day to day like Abhina was mentioning about investing. We're creating this a I for investing. Uh, you know, that's like, you know, Now you reach out to your wealth management advisor That's another being that you can reach out to for advice, right? So I don't think so. They're going to sort of take over, going to be advisory recommendation, those kind of things. So that's what we feel. We have to learn to adapt, how to live with these new beings that we are sort of almost creating as a culture. But it's going to be very. It's going to be very supportive is what we believe. But the fake has taken us in a negative direction. What do you think will be the defining? A. I idea of 2024. I think one of the key ideas we are very excited about is going to be the kind of interactions that we'll be seeing in the future, right? I know. Deep fix, uh, took it in a negative light. Uh, but, you know, just like how S MS text, you know, and those emails from Nigeria in the early nineties, You know, people get aware of them, right, and we'll figure out the technology or we'll figure out the human methodology and how to sort of identify that. But what excites us is, you know, there's so many times when, like, for instance, call centre support right. There's so many times when you are on hold for 20 minutes, 25 minutes and you have a very simple query. I think those kind of experiences where A. I is going to make a huge impact in terms of allowing folks to just have free flowing conversations get answers instantaneously. And secondly, one area is creativity. I think we've not yet seen a. I be really creative. It's still, you know, we are prompting it, we are telling it. But like Abhina was talking about those autonomous agents. When you just say to A I OK, you know, write this play and I want it to be funny and I want to be said in 16 century and it can come up with something. I think those are going to be really exciting avenues. Let me bring in Ankush Sarwa. He's the co founder of KOA, which is the world's first and the highest ROI delivering human centric, conversational A I platform. Ankur 2023 is ending on rather gloomy note, You know, vis a vis artificial intelligence. There are so many job cuts being reported, will it be replacing humans, I would say I think we will not. I will not expect more disruption. More things to come. I think it's already high being created. I think it will narrow down. I think more of the technologies and LL MS and JA I is being launched. Uh, I think they have been launched. Not considering any specific use case in mind. Uh, I think next year 20 24 I think it would be more of being realistic and more of being use case centric, more of being solving some specific problems of the societies. I think we would not see much of hype, which we are seeing now, uh, all for good, for sure. But I think next year would be more of consolidating, um, reality checks and using all the technology being created in this year Far, uh, solving specific problems. I think, uh, it would be more of, uh, solving spec specific stuff more narrowing down on the technology hypes being created, uh, more of being realistic and more of, uh, we'll see problems being solved with a I. Currently it's all even creators do not know the technology which they have created would be used. For what? Use case? I think we will start seeing actual use cases. Actual problems being solved next year. Ankush Indian government has issued advisories to intermediaries for ensuring they can counter misinformation, which is powered by the A I the menace of defects. Do you see more and more countries coming up with policy interventions to handle these? A. I challenges. Absolutely. Absolutely. As I was saying, saying it will narrow down. And it will also be, uh, regulatory checks and regulatory interventions. Uh, right as I was, uh, watching honourable IT minister, saying, um, during the launch of, uh, GP G pay. Uh, so he was saying, we have to balance, uh, between, uh, the innovation and regulations and and see, as we usually see right when we we perform some actions, we do innovations. We do. Um uh, research. We do launch products. We see a new use cases being implemented using technology, and then the laws come up. And, um, of course, uh, so when I'm saying, uh, we will see the funnel getting narrowed down, Uh, it would be again getting contextual and also being regulated. Um, yes. Uh uh uh. I think uh, it's definitely right. Point the right question. Uh, I definitely see, uh, regulations coming up for good for the society. All right, Ankush, thank you so much for joining us. Um, well, you never know. In 2024 you might just have an a I anchor for big fight. So let's move on to one second. Big idea 2024 will be the biggest election year in history. 2 billion voters in 50 countries will vote. That's 41% of the global population and 42% of the GDP, the world's largest democracy in India. And the oldest democracy in US will vote in April, May and November respectively. More than 900 million people are registered to vote in India out of the population of 1.4 billion. Prime Minister Narendra Modi hopes to be re elected for a third five year term. Looks about polls for 2024 will be the largest world election ever. More than 160 million registered Americans will be choosing their 60th US president. Incumbent President Joe Biden hopes to secure a second term in office, while former President Donald Trump is hoping to secure a second non consecutive term. Then there will be elections in our neighbourhood. Will political stability return to Pakistan is the big question. The European Union, which crosses many border, will witness the world's biggest transnational elections. More than 400 million voters will elect 720 members of the European Parliament across 27 member countries. With so many elections all across the world, the question we ask will 2024 be the year that will decide the future of democracy. Manjeet Kriplani is executive director of Gateway House, which is a foreign policy think tank. She's joining me from Colombo. Manjit, I appreciate your time. 41% of the world will be polling. Uh, next year, Bill. Big elections. According to you, What will you be watching out for, Mara? Thank you very much for having me on the show. But first, you know, these a lot of these are democracies that are going in, uh, for elections. Uh, some of them are semi democracies, but whichever way it is, they are still democracy. And, um, what we're going to see for India in particular, this is the This is the defining period for the world because the way the elections are going to work out, these are big and small countries. And we know now that all countries matter the big and small, the votes in the UN, taking sides which way Who's going to trade with the dollar, who's not going to do it, et cetera. Uh, we know that, but for India, what's really, really critical is three things. One is we're gonna have the three major blocks which are going to have three leaders six in South Asia, right this next year. Uh, Maldives has already gone to the polls and we know how that went, which is not in India's favour. 10 countries with the G 25 of the BRICs plus. So India has an interest in all three. We've got our own national election, and that will have an impact on the neighbourhood and vice versa. In the G 20 India is still part of the troika. South Africa has an election next year, and it's going to be the president of the G 2020 25. And finally there's the BRICs plus and you know, there is a new global game of foot here So, um, we have to pay attention. The biggest elections that really matter is the US elections, which is going to be at the tail end of the year, our elections, which is going to be at the beginning of the year. And Russia is going in for elections. Um, you know, it's a whatever those are Taiwan is going in for elections. So the hotspots of the world are, um, and the decision makers of the world, the big economic powers of the world, the big emerging markets of the world. These are all going into elections. So we have to see it's going to set the course for the next five years, just five years. Or would you say that this will decide the future of democracy? I don't think the future of democracy is in any danger at all. The very fact that you've got, you know, almost half the world going in for elections. I mean, this is a wonderful thing, and really, democracies are not perfect things. They are semi democracies there or quasi democracies. There are slight democracies, but the fact is that there is a will for people to participate in the elections of their leaders. So I think democracy is in fact doing much better now than it has ever done before. All right, Manjeet, I appreciate your time. We have, uh, Richard Russo. He's the chair of US India policy strategic, uh, study years, which is the centre of strategic and international studies. Joining me from Washington DC Richard, I appreciate your time. Um, you know, 50 countries going to polls. What do you think will take centre stage in the political space? Well, there's a lot of issues, obviously that have been driving election trends across the world. You know, this, uh, this gearing towards nationalism concerns about, uh, too much integration, Too much internationalism, Uh, although occasionally bright spots in France and other places where they push back against that. Um, but I would say the one issue, whether people like it or not, that really does bring us together is climate change. And there, of course, you may have leaders coming in that don't want to be a guard of International Cooper in that front, others that are gonna kind of double down a lot of other issues that, uh, elected officials will deal with on global issues. the rise of China is a mixed bag. Uh, some are actually friendly towards China. Others consider China a great threat to the world order. So a very much a mixed bag. But I think this, uh, this push and pull towards conservatism and then the need for all countries to work together on climate change. Hopefully, those will be two things that break in the right direction. With all these massive elections happening next year. OK, Richard, in terms of what are the elections which are being watched very carefully by the US thinkers or experts? How much of Indian elections are of interest to you? Well, you know, I mean a lot of the elections that are happening next year. I mean, you think about some of the elections, like in Russia and Bangladesh, where we're not expected to have free and fair elections. So I think we can probably guess who's going to win those elections. Uh, they don't get quite as much attention simply because they're you know, Bangladesh is outside of most of the American mainstream interest and and Russia, we think that that's a bit of a lock, but we'll watch a lot more closely. I think the elections in India, um, we've had a good relationship, I think, with the Modi government on defence and security to some extent on commercial issues. But, you know, concerns about some of, uh, some of the political drivers that Modi sped into, particularly at times, the B JP has been weak. And for us, of course, Mexico being our next door neighbour, Um, we've got a government there today that, uh, has been, uh, more aggressive and concerned about, uh, too much entanglement with the United States. And yet so many US companies have a dramatic expansion of supply chains in New Mexico. A lot of Americans have their heritage, uh, from Mexico. So keeping a good relationship with our massive southern neighbour and making sure that, uh, both countries keep a relative. Uh, ideal understanding about border controls is very important, too. So, um, so a lot of these elections that are happening are either outside or, uh, the the the interest zone for most Americans. Uh, some We think we know what's going to happen for some of the big elections. Um, but I would say India and Mexico are two. That, uh, we pretty heavily to see what's going to happen for a lot of Americans. All right, Richard Russo. I appreciate your time, and when democracy fails, it creates chaos. Let's move to a topic where the nation's prime minister predicted a long and difficult war. We enter 2023 with one war. But the year is ending with three major conflicts, all of which are not showing any signs of ending. On October 7th 2023 terror group Hamas crossed over from the Gaza Strip to launch a shockingly co ordinated attack by air, water and land on the deadly terror attack began the war, which has claimed over 19,000 innocent lives so far. The fear that other countries in the Middle East may soon become embroiled in this ongoing conflict in one way or another is real. While Russian President Vladimir Putin condemned Israel's incessant bombing of Palestine, Gaza Strip, he also promised to intensify the offensive in Ukraine. Though Moscow promised a quick victory over Ukraine nearly two years ago, no end is there in sight of the fighting, which is ongoing. Whether Putin will end this war will depend on the outcome of the elections On the other hand, Ukraine alliances with the US and Europe could be destabilised further in 2024 putting the future of military aid packages in doubt. There are many other life conflicts stretching both the globe and the alphabet from Afghanistan all the way to Yemen. And in these as Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, predicted long and difficult war. What brings louder as Prime Minister Narendra Modi's message of this not being an Iraq war? So can there be peace? Can 2024 be that watershed year when the conflicts could end? And joining me first is ya? He is a Ukrainian MP appreciate your time. I can see you in Army fatigues as we usher in the new Year. What do you think will happen? Will that be a year without wars? All the wars And, uh, the reality is I'm beside the member of Parliament. I'm a mobilised soldier, and I'm talking to you from the front lines where I have a moment, Uh, and speaking with, uh, your amazing nation is the best chance to use that moment to try and tell as much as possible. But the reality is this horrific war which is happening and killing and destroying day in, day out, Night in, night out Are you hoping that the war will end this year? The coming year? 2024. Of course. As soon as Russians leave our country alone, the war will end. And I hope they leave our country alone as soon as possible. All right, ya. I appreciate your time. Let me bring in Dr C Raja Mohan, senior fellow of Asia Society Policy Institute. Uh, Doctor Raja Mohan, I appreciate your time. 2024 will be also the year, uh, which will witness many elections before I talk about the war I want to understand from you. Uh how do you see? Uh, the things change in democracies in particular. Look, I think that elections are taking place in many countries. That is true. Many large countries, including India US, Russia You have elections in Pakistan, Bangladesh, a whole lot of countries. But I don't think you can draw a general conclusion about democracy around the world. Each country has its own specific set of issues and complexities. So I would say the impact is not on democracy but like so for example, if Trump is elected in the US? Uh, there is a certain consequences that will follow in terms of US policy that will have a great bearing on the on the international system. Uh, no one is betting that President Putin will lose the election. But so so I. I think it's broadly predictable in Pakistan. We know, Uh, whatever the talk about elections is, finally the army will select, uh, the the the next prime minister. So in India, the prime Minister is so strong that there are very few doubts now of what's going to happen in the election. So I think you have to take it country by country rather than framing it as a single year of democracy or something in that manner. OK, Dr Ramon, Ongoing wars Russia, Ukraine, war, Israel, Hamas. There is a great degree of instability as well. Do you see a new axis emerge in in 2024? Absolutely. And I think in all the three, of course, the US is A is a key player. So what we are seeing is the sudden, uh, kind of destabilisation of all the three major theatres in the world. Uh, one is Europe, of course. Historically, last 100 years, it's been the the Central Theatre where war and peace, uh, have have, uh, having been the principal issues. Uh, the peace of last 3040 years is shattered. So the Russia does not like, uh, the existing arrangements in Europe. It's thought it thinks that it has been, uh, you know, uh, you know, the deals that were made in 1991 were undone, So therefore it wants a revision of the European security order, but Europe is not ready to give it so So, in a way, uh, what happens next year in these elections will be will be of consequence. Second Theatre is the Middle East. Uh, just when we thought Middle East was reasonably stable, Uh, we have the Gaza War, and I suspect in in, uh, in the case of Middle East, both Israel and Iran are trying to revise the regional order. Uh, and I think that is going to be. It's already destabilised the system quite significantly, and at this point, it does not look like how this can be stabilised. So we are in for a pretty turbulent Iraq in the in the Middle East and then in East Asia. Things have not come to, uh, shooting yet, but I think the tensions between China and the US on China's claims that it will unify Taiwan with or without peaceful means. China's pressure against the Philippines. China's pressure against India We've been seeing a slow burn of issues here. But if Taiwan, if China tries to take Taiwan, I mean the US will get directly involved. So unlike in the, uh, in the in Europe, the US could get drawn more directly into conflict with China if China does step forward. But But at this point, we have no clue which way the ice is going to roll. OK, tell me who will be the peacemaker in all these wars when you are really hopeful? I mean, there will be a peacemaker. I mean, I think Europe we just had peace for almost 75 years is struggling, uh, to to come to a settlement on Ukraine and more broadly, uh, understanding with with Russia, the Middle East, the US is still the main interlocutor between, uh, you know, we saw US is the one which negotiated the hostage release because it still has some leverage with Israel and the Arabs, but it has no leverage with Iran, which is the one of the, you know, one which is really challenging the the existing order in the East Asia. Of course, again, the US is the dominant player in terms of how it can settle things. So I think using word peace is is somewhat of a misnomer here. The question is who has the power and the cloud to negotiate new arrangements, stabilising these regions. So I think that's where what the US does is going to be consequential and whether Russia and China will facilitate that, whether Russia and China will undermine that at this point. The Russia and China dug is wrong with the United States. So the US capacity to actually get things done is is is also shaky. OK, so let me rephrase it and not talk about peace. But say what will be the nature of these arrangements? Will it be different from what we have seen in the past? Look, yes, there will be. I mean, that is the point. I mean, in Europe. Russia is saying the existing order needs to be revised. NATO needs to go back to the 1997 borders and that it needs a security sphere of it needs a sphere of influence in eastern and Central Europe that the Russian desire for such an arrangement is not acceptable to the Central European states. It's not acceptable to, uh, to the US. So how will they come to a compromise? I mean, uh uh, but that system has broken down. So when I talk about an arrangement here, there has to be a compromise if neither side wins. Uh, so at that point, compromises will like to be made in Russian call for a fundamental division of the European order and the European interest in stable borders. Uh, so there how much of the territory of Ukraine can be sacrificed? Those will be the kind of issues. So the question of sovereignty of Central European states, the question of security of Russia and the role of the United States and NATO in in facilitating that these all these issues are contentious, and I think it's going to be problematic in in Asia. Uh, Taiwan. Sorry, Xi Jinping says he has the right to integrate Taiwan. So how that proceeds Uh, we don't know, are there? The existing arrangements are being broken down that there's an idea that US would respect it. Uh, one China policy And the China would only do peaceful integration of Taiwan. So that is breaking down. We don't know if there's a fresh arrangement can be made. And on top of it, all these are being tested by the emergence of new technologies. The drone warfare. We've seen the rise of artificial intelligence. So how do these technologies affect the military balance? How do the new tactics of the Grey zone conflict that we're seeing in Red Sea? Uh, how do they undermine deterrence, or how do they undermine peace? Those are most structural issues that are going to affect all these processes that we are that we talked about. What about India, Dr Ramon? Sure. I mean, I, I think, uh, we have a situation with China. Uh, now we're into the fourth winter. We have 60,000 troops deployed, uh, 17,000 ft. Uh, no resolution in sight yet. Also, the question is, will 2024 be any better than 2022 and 23? Uh, the negotiations with China, uh, have been going on, but without no real progress in terms of beyond disengagement in a couple of places, but structurally restoring the status quo until before 2020 summer. We are nowhere near it, so that's where we are. In the case of Pakistan, we've had a fragile peace. There was a ceasefire in 2021 February that is largely held, but in the last few weeks there are signs that that might be breaking down. So we have problems there. And meanwhile India's It's not just on the land borders. Now with the attacks on the Indian shipping in the Arabian Sea. The maritime frontier too is going to be very, very consequential because that's where India's trade is going to be affected. India's energy imports are going to be affected, so I think we're beginning to see all these years. India could say Look, there's no real maritime threat except the Chinese coming into the ocean in a Broadway. It is a direct attack on shipping coming into India, so that is that will play out in the next few days. Dr. Ramon, really appreciate your time. Let me also try and get an Israeli perspective. Uh, Limor Blatta, Deputy counsel General Israel is joining us from Bengaluru. Uh, Limor, You know, certainly one question that will be asked because of this ongoing Israel. Israel a mass conflict will 2024 be the year that we'll see the end of wars and that being one of them in the end of the day, we're looking for peace. We want to live with, uh, in peace with our neighbours. We're living in a difficult region, Um, and our goal is definitely to to have peace with our neighbours and to have them live well. And right now, unfortunately, uh, the events of the seventh of October, Uh, the massacre, the horrible massacre and the invasion of the Hamas terrorists to Israel. Um um uh has, uh, deeply, deeply, uh, created a situation where, uh, Israel has to right now to defend itself and to, uh, do whatever it can in order to destroy Hamas and to make sure that something like that never happens again. And, of course, um, the situa, uh, Israel is, uh, dealing with, uh, releasing the hostages to 100 and 29 hostages that are held in Gaza, Uh, including, uh, Children babies. Uh, women elderly. These people are still there. So, um, we're hoping we're hoping only for peace. We don't want to fight with anyone. We're not interested in war. Uh, and our hope is first of all to bring the hostages back to bring back, uh, bring back, uh, the safety, the security to the state of Israel and make sure that something that happened like this will not happen again. And for that, we have to work on destroying Hamas. Uh, and of course, we're not only fighting, uh, the front, uh, with Gaza. Uh, the, uh we're fighting with Hezbollah. We have the houthis that are shooting that are a proxy of Iran that are always, uh, threatening Israel. And they're, uh, also, uh, firing rockets, Uh uh, towards the ships and jeopardising, uh, the freedom of trade. So everything is the whole area is right now, uh, being mandated by, uh by, uh uh, and supported by, uh, the re the Iranian regime, which is only interested in denying that peace and not, uh, and and fighting Israel, which is representing the free world. Ok, ms. Can Israel Saudi normalisation agreement still happen? Or is it a distant dream. Uh, we are interested in peace with anyone that wants to have peace with us. That's that's the only thing I can, uh, we we are. We're not interested in having any enemies. And for us, uh, anyone who wants to do peace with Israel, we would be very happy to. So definitely, if we will have allies for that, it's, uh we we will always be interested. And, uh, we've seen how Israel can do Uh, um, peace, uh, agreements with the Arab countries. So we're very, very, uh, we're always hopeful to get more, Uh um, to get more warm relationships with whoever we can. All right, limo. Appreciate your time. Thank you so much. So how much will these wars impact world economy? That's our next big idea. Should there be optimism about the state of our economy? Many experts say yes. Despite the global repercussions of the Israel Hamas and Russia Ukraine wars, heads of states, global institutions and economists are all gung ho on India's prospects for economic growth over the next two decades. As India marches on towards high growth figures, the major 2024 factors are likely to be how well the government manages to curb inflation, especially food inflation, and also whether our employment generation figures can actually translate to more jobs on the ground. The 2024 looks by election is also likely to play a key role in how the future of government decides economic policies in the post covid era. When it comes to manufacturing, has India become the go to destination? The question is also, can India also absorb the shock of overall slowdown in its neighbourhood countries and stagnation in the developed countries? Joining me to talk about it is Professor Arvind Pane. He's a professor of economics at the Columbia University. He's joining me from New York City. Professor Pane. Always a pleasure to speak to you in the world of economics. Money policy. What do you think you will be watching out for in 2024? Well, you know, uh, but it's a wide ranging question. Um, but, uh, uh, I think we'll now see a bit of a shift from pessimism to optimism. Uh, global economy was seen to be in recession or going into recession, but, uh, it was, uh it turned out to be neither in recession nor going into recession. Uh, we see, uh, uh, the United States growing in 2023 between two and 3% closer to three, actually. Uh, and in the last quarter that we have numbers for which is the third quarter of 2023. Growth rate was about 5%. So, uh uh uh, Europe is is still a little bit, uh uh, soft. Uh, and so there are some problems. Uh, there, Uh, and, uh, China seems to be coming out a bit better than we previously thought. Uh, and India, of course, is doing fantastically well. I mean, my own view now is that, you know, in India, we sort of worry about what the global economy is going to look like. But instead, we should be worrying about, uh, lifting up the global economy. You know, our share in the, uh uh, that is our contribution to the global economy's growth has been growing. Uh uh. Now and it's, uh, well about double digit levels And Professor Pan, you know, a hedge fund managers. Several policy institutes watchers say India is a country to watch out for. Do you think there would be that visible shift, which has, perhaps begun in some way of manufacturing units moving from China to India. Uh, that I think, has to happen now. It's already happening. In fact, you know, 2023 already looked at a lot better than 2022. Uh, I'm just going by. You know what you see in the news reports? Because the actual data take a longer time to come out. But going by those reports, clearly, 2023 looked a lot better than 2022. Uh, and the buzz around India is very, very strong. Uh, India. Also, I think, you know, policy wise is sending out good signals. Meaning that, you know, uh, the the the government really is very receptive. Uh uh, to the foreign investors, Uh uh, trying to, you know, even though, uh, uh, uh, it it still remains a difficult place to do business, in the view of, you know, foreign investors. Generally, when I speak to them, Yeah, uh uh, at the same time, uh, they they, uh uh, you know, selectively. At least the government tries to, uh, uh, remove the barriers. Uh, for for the large investors. So that is all Good sign. Uh, and, uh, the the move out of China is not about to stop. I think you know, the, uh, trajectory of China looks, uh, uh, pessimistic overall, Uh uh uh, in the longer term. So, um, certainly I think, you know, I would expect India to, uh, be, uh also, by the way, uh, another, uh, good government is the decline in the interest rates and or at least the prospects of a decline in interest rates in the United States. Uh, that ought to also bring the capital, you know, uh, out of the United States into the emerging markets back. Uh, and that should help India in particular. Because, you know, again, uh, when the capital wants to go to emerging markets, where is it going to go? To India is clearly a prime destination. And what about this constant fear of the impending recession in the developed world? Professor Pan Arya, This has been going on and on after covid. Uh, and and each time I get asked, uh, particularly in the Indian press. You know, I sort of ask me, where is the recession? Uh, and I ought to ask you the same question. Uh uh. Europe is a little softer, so, you know, But even Europe, you know, if you talk of recession, if we address a mild recession because, you know, the decline in the last quarter. 3rd, 3rd quarter of 2023 in the European GDP was about 0.1%. Uh uh uh. Now, you know, uh uh, by definition, recession means, you know, decline in, uh, in, uh, the GDP for two consecutive quarters. So we will see what happens in the fourth quarter, But even Europe, you know, if there is a recession, it will be very, very mild. Uh, but the United States economy is getting quite robustly. Uh, you know, uh uh, uh, beating all the, uh, forecasts. You know, that is where, uh, continuously, uh, fears were being expressed. And now the Fed having already said that, you know, now it is going to actually go easier on, uh uh, interest rates. Uh, it it it is contemplating 2 to 3 increases in decreases in the, uh, interest rates in the next year. Uh, I don't see any prospects, really, Of recession and even Chinese economy which overall is in sort of, you know, growth rate has declined. Not about you know, but, uh uh, uh. IMF raised its forecast that to about a little above 5% now for, uh, the 2023. And for 2024 it's forecasting 4.6%. Uh, so these are really the two large. I mean, you know, uh, among the large regions you got the US Europe, china. And then comes India. Uh, but, uh, uh, uh uh, US and china look reasonably good. Uh, Europe A little soft. Uh uh, India. Very robust. So I think, you know, uh, uh, uh, we ought to do quite well in 2024. And, uh, I'll continue this conversation with you, Professor Pane, I appreciate your time. Joining us now is Sonia khi Gosh, She is, uh, a group chief economic advisor of SB. I, uh, really appreciate your time. Mr. Gosh, uh, what's in its store for India? Let's, uh, put the lens on India. Us? Yeah. Thank you, Maria. I think, uh, the as 2023 draws to a close. I think if we pondered over what has happened over the last 2 to 3 years. If I just take a little bit longer perspective and go back to the past, I think there has been significant achievements. As for India has been concerned as you know, that the last several years last 15 years there has been several crisis. In 2008, we had the global financial crisis 20. We had the Pandemic 21. We had the second wave 22. We had the war 23. We had again another war in the Middle East. So despite all these wars and this is basically all the mean that this happens once in 100 years, India has actually achieved remarkable success in terms of its growth rate. This year, the growth rate, as you know, is possibly going to exceed 7%. Last year it was more than 7%. For three successive years, the growth rate has been more than 7%. And if you look into the numbers also in terms of the various leading indicators as we move on to 2024 in terms of the markets in terms of the economy in terms of the rural indicators in terms of the urban indicators in terms of the inflation in terms of the deficit, even in terms of the programmes, the socially inclusive programmes that the government is running. I think all of these make us optimistic about an even better 2024. But Mr Gosh, we really do not live in silos. How much of the world slowdown will impact us? No, I think that's a fair question to ask. Uh, the point to note is that if you have seen for the last 2 to 3 years, the global economy has continued to be quite uncertain, even as the economy global economy has continued to uncertain in 2024 it may still look uncertain because we don't know what is going to be the likely impact of the rate hikes by the advanced economy central banks. But the interesting point is that I think our regulators, the Reserve Bank of India and the government has actually acted in collusion and this has been one of the most important policy co ordinated policy response post pandemic. When both of the work inclusion the other one, the government, working on trying to target the benefits at the bottom of the pyramid and the central bank trying to front load the policy actions so that the inflation, which was of course a major threat for most most of the economies, including India, in 2023. The threat actually decelerates quickly and to both the extent I think both the regulators have been successful doing that. As you know, that the central bank, the R, has in fact front loaded most of the rate hikes. And now we're in a situation. We are seeing that the infection is slowly coming under control, so that will actually open up the space for monetary policy actions for the advance economy, central banks and possibly the central bank in India towards the middle of next year. The important, but the only thing which we need to be a little bit careful about is an uncertain global economy. If there is a slowdown in the global economy, there be some impact on our exports. But the good thing is that even on the export side, the service exports has more than compensated the goods export. Just to give you a number, we had 407 170 billion exports of goods and services. I think in 2000 last year, of which 3. 54 billion was service exports and around 420 billion was goods exports. So at some point of time, the service exports is really going to outpace the goods export if we continue in this pattern. And I think that has been one of the several things which has changed over the last couple of years to give us a solace of hope that even in this uncertain circumstances, some things will come up which will insulate the Indian economy from the vagaries of the of an uncertain world in future. All right, so I appreciate your time on that note. We are slipping into a short break. You don't have to go anywhere because big fight will be taking you to a completely different world altogether. So stay with us. So from a I to worldwide elections to economics now we are moving to an outer space. India will begin 2024 with a note of optimism right at the start. Israel's Aditya L one mission is expected to reach its destination on the sixth of January. This will be a major push in India's space exploration programme after the heavy success of the country's moon moon mission this year. Another key milestone is expected to be the launch of the low earth orbit observatory jointly developed by NASA and is in the first quarter of 2024. NASA data will help scientists observe climate change in great detail and its success may be the beginning of many more collaborations between ISO and NASA, something that is expected to accelerate India's space programme immensely. India plans to launch a new orbiter to Venus called Shukan, in 2024 2. On the international front, Russian and US space agencies have agreed to keep working together to deliver crews to the international space station until at least 2025. The space sector, including its so called cross flights that involve sending crews from different nationalities on one spacecraft, is a rare area of Cooper operation remaining between Moscow and Washington. Since Russian troops sent Russia in fact entered and sent troops to Ukraine to talk about it. Let me go straight to New York City where Dr Amit Ghosh, scientist, is joining us live Dr Gosh, really appreciate your time 2023 will be known for India becoming the first country to land in southern polar region of moon. What do you think 2024 will be about in the space of space and technology? Well, there is a lot of exciting problems out there, so let me just run through some of them. One is so far. If you when you saw launch vehicles, they launched and then they were destroyed. They fell into the sea and they were destroyed, and as a result, launch costs were very high. So every time you flew something, you had to also account for the cost of the hardware. So what Elon Musk is doing, he's developing something called Starship, where the entire vehicle launch vehicle can be reused. This will lower costs by as much as 95 percent. Um, this will make, um, missions to Mars, affordable human missions to Mars. Uh, this will make missions to other planets much more affordable. Like, um, missions to Jupiter probably were very expensive. That would come down, and then it also there's a promise of point to point transportation on earth, so you could fly from one place to another on Earth in maybe 30 se 30 minutes. So that is, I think, the most exciting thing. The second exciting thing is perhaps humans will go back to the moon this time not to explore, but to actually set up a base much like the International space station. So in, in addition to the, um, uh, base by NASA, which is the Artemis programme, Jeff Bezos, blue origin is also planning to set up a base. So that is going to be fascinating to see, uh, humans on on the moon. Um, 3, 65 days a year. Um, another interesting thing, which is probably not as much in the news, Blair is that NASA is about to launch a satellite to Europa. Europa is a satellite of, um um in the solar system. Jupiter. And why is it so fascinating? So below the crust of Europa, there is an ocean, and the ocean carries double the volume of water on all of earth's oceans combined. There's so so there's so much water. Um, there and it's a salty ocean. And it is since it's under the crust, maybe 10 kilometres under the crust. It is absolutely dark. And, um And what is the similarity with Earth? The similarity with earth is the earth. Oceans are also dark below a certain depth, maybe one kilometre. And yet there is. It is teeming with life. So could Europa be teeming with life? So, um, so in Mars, we we we know that there's water there, but we are probably, um, getting to the place where there's the current life here. But in Europa, there be there can be current life. So there's going to be a mission there, and I'm sure there's going to be follow up missions. And I know there are prototypes being tested here on, um, on earth under Antarctica, Um, like robotic submarines to go into those oceans and see whether there is present life on Europa. Um, Then there is, um, about Mars. Where are we about Mars? In Mars, we know that there was past water, definitely, but it was their past life. Was there past fossils? Um, is there present micro organisms? So to address that, uh, there's a sample return mission from NASA, which is which is trying to take off maybe later part of the decade. And once those samples arrive in laboratories on Earth. We'll have a very good idea of whether Mars has life or not setting up of a base on Moon. That certainly sounds really fascinating. So Europa is next. Not Venus, because, you know, India plans to launch a new orbiter to Venus called Suk in 2024. So it's a fascinating place. It's very close to Earth, and the Russians have sent a whole lot of missions. The thing about Venus is that the surface is very hot, more than 500 °C. So all the missions the Russian missions which landed on Earth on Venus were destroyed pretty quickly, but they did give some information. But India is not doing a lander. It's doing an orbiter which will teach a lot about the climate. And the interesting thing about Venus is to understand, Why did Venus evolve the way it did? It did, and it seems that they had a runaway greenhouse effect. So this is to do with climate change. So, um, what is runaway greenhouse effect? Um, at some point, this is, um, called feedback loops. So do you have a negative? Basically, you have a situation where the the global warming on Venus became worse and worse with time. So why did it happen? And then another interesting thing about Venus is there was a gas which was de detected, called phosphine, which is related to life on, um, Venus. And and and? And it is controversial, whether it's really P or not. But there's something to check out whether, maybe in some miracle, there is some life. Roman Venus, if you recall hydrothermal vents on Earth, do have microscopic life. So it's very surprising that in extreme environments they can still be like So. So, yes, this was about the Venus fiction, All right. A lot of fascinating thoughts there. Thank you so much. Uh, well, that's all from me and the entire team. Hope you liked what we have compiled for you in this last episode of 2023 of Big Fight. It has ended without any shouting without any fighting. See you next week.
