thanks for watching this video blogged on where we stand with this fascinating and confusing go elections were the politics is as wrestlers and turbulent as the Arabian Sea. Now look at how the wheel of Fortune turns in Indian politics. When this campaign began, it appeared that in this messy, fragmented political landscape of Goa, it was advantage to the ruling BJP. Despite a perception of discontent. Number one because the main opposition, the Congress, had completely collapsed, losing almost 15 of the 17 glass. It had one in 2017, with most of them having either defected to the BJP or snapped up by political newbies and start ups like the Trinamool Congress. Number two Advantage BJP because the non BJP or the opposition vote seem divided between all these different players, from the Trinamool to the Aam Aadmi party to the Congress to regional and smaller outfits. Now, if you talk to people here, analysts and experts and the public sense, the mood seems to have shifted. It appears that the Congress, which had virtually collapsed, now seems to be climbing. The BJP seems to be struggling. Trinamool, after it's big bank entry, seems to have started to disappear from the political scene, one of some of the factors that lead to the shift number one. Michael Lobo, who's a North go a strong and from this region where we are beautiful Candle in beach defected. Two. The Congress from the BJP. Now he somebody who controls they say, close to five of the seven seats in this bar. Dis region. This is goes Party Central, and he is considered to be the king here that sent shockwaves through Goa. The number two factors. Many believe that even if they were to vote for the Congress, what is it? Helped because of Congress? Is MLA sold effect? The Congress took an unusual step of getting its candidate to pledge that they will not defect pledges in Amanda. A multi ID and a church. And as if to show that they're walking the talk when one of their MME. Lass would crossed over it over Trinamool election. Greg Naldo. When he wanted to come back, the Congress said No, we will not take him back. So no defectors welcome and also pledged against defections. Factor number three. The BJP denying a ticket to Manohar Tarik Er san from the Pan Jim seat. Late BJP veteran Karraker had always fought from that seat while wanted it, but they instead gave it to Bob Bushman Surratt, who defected from the Congress to the BJP and who's currently the sitting MLA Franjic, saying Win ability trumps sentiment. This again created ripples in goes always turbulent political waters. Factor number four. The Trinamool promised come in with the promise of a navy circle for Goa, the new dawn. But instead they seem to have recruited old Dawn people like Churchill, Alamo and Losing Falero. These are people who crossed party lines number of times. They face multiple charges against them. It sent out a signal that did not match with the Trinamool promise. The perception that the Trinamool was being run by Prashant Kishore political consultancy AIPAC were people dealing with the political party or a political consultancy. This trinamool decline boosted the Congress's prospects, with many believing that they were actually interested in dividing the opposition vote. And so the anti BJP vote started to consolidate around the Congress, to the point where the Trinamool from attacking the Congress was actually asking it for an alliance and the last factor under Manohar Karraker. The BJP tried a more wide tent approach in Goa, reaching out to the states 25 to 30%. Christian community Today, many believe that Karraker model has somewhat been abandoned, and that may leave to this community again, consolidating around opposition parties like the Congress. Now this doesn't mean necessarily that the wheel has completed its circle because this is Indian politics. And, as they say, a week is a long time in Indian politics. There are many other X factors at play. Number one, the BJP election machine, which is known to kick in, especially when it senses a threat, cannot be underestimated. Number two. In the event of a hung assembly, which many believe could well be the outcome once again in Goa, it could once again like in 2017 Be advantage BJP. So watch this space for how the storey and falls
