An explainer on vote-share simulations in Tamil Nadu showing how Vijay's TVK, even at 8-14 percent, may not be in contention to form a government but could decisively alter outcomes between the DMK and AIADMK. The data highlights that the key variable is not TVK's overall vote share, but which party it draws more votes from-an imbalance that could either widen DMK's lead or, in specific scenarios, push the AIADMK ahead in a tightly-fought contest.