- As SpaceX prepares to launch its IPO, questions of a merger with Tesla remain.
- Musk has discussed the possibility of combining the two firms, according to reports.
- Betting platforms feel a merger is on the horizo
As SpaceX prepares to launch its public issue, analysts and betting markets are concerned about one big thing- the possibility of a merger with Tesla, another Elon Musk company.
Earlier this week, it emerged that Musk discussed the possibility of combining the two firms, as per CNBC. A Tesla employee told the outlet that the move had been openly discussed internally.
WedBush Securities analyst Dan Ives predicted an 80% chance of the merger happening in an X post following SpaceX's IPO filing last week. He also wrote in a note the “groundwork [was] already in place for both operations to become one organization”, Forbes reported. The analyst claimed that a deal could happen in the first half of 2027.
We see an 80%+ chance that Tesla and SpaceX merge in 2027 @PowerLunch @CNBC ???????? https://t.co/7G1XKgw6B1
— Dan Ives (@DivesTech) May 21, 2026
Betting platform Kalshi has placed 52% odds on a Tesla-SpaceX merger taking place before May 1, 2027, as of Wednesday. The platform has predicted lower odds for Musk combining the two companies before April 1 (45%), and March 1 (37%).
Betting odds briefly jumped as high as 76.7% before SpaceX's IPO filing earlier this month. Kalshi rival Polymarket has claimed there's a 32% chance of a merger before the end of this year.
Musk is expected to become the world's first trillionaire after SpaceX's IPO, according to Forbes estimates. His stake in the rocket maker is almost 40%, putting the value of his equity at about $600 billion and potentially taking his wealth above $1.4 trillion.
Musk is also set to become the first chief executive of two firms with a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Tesla is worth a little over $1.6 trillion, while SpaceX is targeting a valuation of at least $1.8 trillion in its IPO, as per Bloomberg.
This is lower than the $2 trillion target that the outlet had earlier reported.
Elon Musk's companies have shared resources over the years, and also share board members like Musk and venture capitalist Ira Ehrenpreis. SpaceX bought Tesla's Megapack battery energy storage systems worth $697 million worth in 2024 and 2025 to power xAI data centres in Memphis, Tennessee. Following xAI's merger with SpaceX, Tesla's $2 billion investments in the firm became holdings in the rocket maker.
Other transactions include the electric vehicle manufacturer selling solar equipment and car parts to SpaceX and leaning on the rocket maker to develop a special alloy for its Cybertruck.
As of now, Musk has not commented publicly on the speculation. But if analysts and betting markets are to be believed, a merger between SpaceX and Tesla is on the horizon.
