For at least four decades, the Gulf of Panama has relied on cold and nutrient-rich water every dry season as it feeds fisheries, cools coral reefs and tempers the heat along the country's Pacific beaches - a process known as "upwelling". But in 2025, this phenomenon didn't occur, Science Daily reported. Scientists at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI) confirmed that the Gulf of Panama's seasonal upwelling failed to occur for the first time on record, as it broke a pattern that has held since the 1980s.
"Data suggest that the cause was a reduction in Panama wind-jet frequency, duration, and strength, possibly related to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position during the 2024-2025 La Nina, though the mechanisms remain unclear," the scientist wrote in the research.
The findings, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, link the collapse to a sharp drop in northern trade wind frequency. "Nevertheless, the consequences are likely significant, including decreases in fisheries productivity and exacerbated thermal stress on corals that typically benefit from upwelling's cooling," they further said.
"This event underscores how climate disruption can threaten wind-driven tropical upwelling systems, which remain poorly monitored and studied despite their importance to ecology and coastal economies."
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What Is Upwelling and Why It Matters
Between December and April, strong northern trade winds normally push warm surface water offshore. That allows cold, nutrient-rich water from the ocean depths to rise. It is called upwelling.
The surge acts like "the ocean's breath". It fuels plankton blooms that power the entire food web. It also supports some of Central America's most productive fisheries and shields coral reefs from thermal stress, and keeps Panama's Pacific coast noticeably cooler during the summer vacation months.
STRI has monitored the Gulf's upwelling since the 1980s. On average, the process starts around January 20 and runs for roughly nine weeks, dropping sea surface temperatures to about 66.2 degrees F.
In 2025, the onset didn't cross the threshold until March 4. The cool season lasted less than two weeks. Minimum temperatures only fell to 73.9 degrees F. Chlorophyll levels, a measure of ocean productivity, were also extremely low.
