Scientists are closely watching a newly identified asteroid that could strike the Moon in December 2032, an event that may send debris towards Earth and pose risks to satellites - while also offering a rare scientific opportunity.
Asteroid 2024 YR4, estimated to be about 60 metres wide, currently has a 4 percent chance of hitting the Moon on December 22, 2032. While the odds remain low, researchers say the impact would be powerful enough to attract global attention.
A new paper by Yifan He of Tsinghua University and co-authors, released as a preprint on arXiv, examines what scientists could learn if such a collision occurs. According to the study, the impact would release energy comparable to a medium-sized thermonuclear explosion, making it the most powerful Moon impact observed in modern times.
If the asteroid hits, it is expected to carve a crater about one kilometre wide and trigger a global moonquake measuring roughly magnitude 5. This would provide valuable data on the Moon's internal structure, something scientists have struggled to study directly.
The blast would also eject large amounts of debris into space. Some of this material could fall to Earth days later, creating an intense meteor display visible to the naked eye, especially over parts of South America, North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. At its peak, simulations suggest millions of meteors per hour could enter Earth's atmosphere.
However, the event carries serious risks. Falling debris could damage property, and space agencies warn that fragments might threaten satellites, potentially triggering a chain reaction known as Kessler Syndrome, which could disrupt global communications and navigation systems.
Because of these dangers, space agencies are discussing whether to launch a mission to deflect the asteroid. The decision, scientists say, will balance planetary safety against the chance to observe an extraordinary natural experiment.
