It looks like a done deal. Responding to questions on China providing assistance to Bangladesh on the Teesta River project, its Foreign Ministry spokesperson said, with perfect equanimity, that "China-Bangladesh cooperation does not target any third party and should be free from third-party influence". That's nice. One would like to see what Beijing's reaction would have been if the US or Japan played footsie in a project along the Mekong River or the Red river. This when China has 41 hydropower dams, two multi-purpose dams and 25 irrigation dams in its section of just one of those rivers, and still bristles even if an international bank is involved in any project in neighbouring countries.
So, no, that lofty statement doesn't wash.
The Fine Print
A reasonable degree of alarm was generated as Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rehman chose to visit China for his first visit abroad in this capacity. That's usually a privilege reserved for India, but times change, and processes too with it. But then came strong suspicions as the 'Joint Communique' issued during the visit declared that China will "provide support and help within its capacity to the Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project (TRCMRP)", together with experts from Bangladesh. Beijing is no open-handed generous power. That phrase, 'within its capacity', will probably mean that it will rope in an international bank to fund the project, leaving the Bangladesh government to mull over the bills. Add to that the fact that the firm involved in the project is PowerChina, a behemoth that works in almost every Asian country and is also part of the strategic works with the People's Liberation Army, and comes directly under SASAC (State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council). That's the Chinese communist party we're talking about.
The Chinese Are There Anyway
Diplomatic positioning notwithstanding, Beijing knows very well that the project has direct security implications for India. China had been angling for the project for years but was thwarted by the Hasina government's caution in getting Beijing too involved in the country in a project that's virtually next to a sensitive area. The river itself runs parallel to the India-Bangladesh border, thus placing the project about 10-20 km of the border, and a little further on to the highly sensitive Siliguri corridor. True, Sheikh Hasina did allow a contract with the Chinese in September 2016, when the Bangladesh Water Development Board entered a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Powerchina (Power Construction Corporation of China) to carry out a technical study to better manage the Teesta for the benefit of northern Bangladesh's greater Rangpur region. That involved dredging the river to prevent severe flooding during the monsoons and equally store water when needed. Though the feasibility studies and accompanying data was completed, the effort came to nothing as the then Foreign Secretary, Harsh Vardhan Shringla, hurried to Dhaka to nip that in the bud. Hasina raised the issue several times with Delhi, but attempts to address it were thwarted by the tempestuous Chief Minister Mamta Bannerjee, who opposed it tooth and nail.
While all this was going on, the Chinese were steadily entrenching themselves in the Rangpur division in various small businesses, including hotels and tourism, which services a large Chinese population involved in construction efforts in the district. This includes the SASEC Road Connectivity Project-II, improvement of the Elenga-Hatikamrul-Rangpur Road to a 4-Lane Highway, construction of a bridge over Teesta in Gaibandha, Barapukuria Coal Mine, Barapukuria Coal Fired Thermal Power Station, and the construction of Saidpur Simple Cycle (HSD based) Power Plant Project. Recently, the Chinese Ambassador Li was also visiting the Uttara Export Processing Zone in Nilphamari of Rangpur division. That's rather a lot of Chinese presence in a very sensitive area. Add to that the Yunus government inviting China to revive a World War 2-era air base in Lalmonirhat, again near the border, and you have a troublesome situation. All that seemed to have been rolled back as a new and young Prime Minister, Tarique Rehman, arrived like a breath of fresh air.
Back To Square One?
Are we back to square one? Perhaps not. Tarique Rehman has his share of troubles. The Jamaat-e-Islami is again on the warpath, with planned extended agitations to apparently push 'reform' even while it warns of civil war if matters are not addressed. The party's heady success in recent elections - after decades of being on the sidelines - has clearly left it wanting more. This comes alongside an increase in extremist group activity, even as police surveillance over such malign activity seems to have reduced. This occurs alongside the Jamaat steadily filling the vacuum left by purges and the exit of alleged Awami League sympathisers in local governments and upwards. There is again a sense of fear in the country, which has been erased as the BNP took power.
In tandem is the strong, across-the-board ingress of the Pakistanis, with a delegation to increase trade just having left the country this week. Rawalpindi has, in the meanwhile, reportedly proposed a 'Joint Military Command' that comes alongside offers of 16-48 JF-17 Block III fighters - together with a simulator already delivered two months ago. That's the first piece of Pakistani military equipment to enter the country since 1971. Remember, all this is being built with the Chengdu Aircraft Cooperation. There is a trilateral operation at work.
The Very Real Problem Of Delay
There is also the very real problem of water-sharing and its attendant dangers. In all, 54 rivers flow between India and Bangladesh and sharing of river waters has been a key bilateral issue. Teesta has been hanging at least since 2010, or even before. In 2011, during the United Progressive Alliance-II government, India and Bangladesh were close to signing an agreement, but again Chief Minister Banerjee walked out of the deal. In 2024, Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra approached Bangladesh with an offer of $1 billion in assistance to dredge and manage the Teesta. But by then, the clearly hostile Mohammad Yunus was parachuted into the country, who promptly invited the Chinese again.
Tarique And His Troubles
As of now, it is important to recognise that Prime Minister Rahman has difficult issues on all sides. In addition to having the Jamiat and pro-China groups in his government, the party itself is riven by factionalism, and by entrenched anti-India elements such as Dr Zahed ur Rahman, advisor to his government, among others. Meanwhile, Water Resources Minister Md Shahiduddin Chowdhury Anee has already announced that the government would begin work on the Teesta project in the ongoing fiscal year. After all, feasibility studies have already been done by China.
Meanwhile, it is entirely possible that the whole Teesta threat is also a ploy to get a favourable water-sharing pact for Ganges. That agreement completes 30 years in December 2026, and is likely to be a huge political litmus test. The BNP had earlier announced that ties with India would 'depend' on the treaty going through. All that means there is rather a lot riding on the shoulders of the leaders of both countries.
What India Should Do Now
India has signalled that it wants the best of ties with its neighbour, with a highly-placed political appointee being ambassador. While that is commendable at a time of serious difficulties, it is far from enough. A calculated policy at state level, of pushing back 'Bangladeshis', is hardly likely to help in mending the relationship.
At times, it does seem that Delhi's right hand has no control over its left. Meanwhile, there is an even more serious issue: that of reduced water flow in the Ganges, driven by climate pressures. Upstream water diversions and other factors have led to increased salinity, degrading the potential of river-based fisheries. It might be time to take Bangladesh experts on board to study the Ganges and its myriad issues and strike a partnership to get the best deal for the mighty river and its subsystems, for everyone's sake.
At the same time, offer a generous package for the Teesta project. It's never too late. Especially when Delhi does have a reputation of giving generously - even if at snail's pace - rather than demanding a pound of flesh in debt later. Dhaka is well aware of Chinese practices, and it is wary of extending Pakistani influence, especially when Islamabad has nothing to give. A little Indian generosity, well in time, could go a long way. In fact, there really is no choice at all. Even a watered down 'Monroe doctrine' of its own will require some really heavy lifting, and a lot of grace and generosity. That's what is in terribly short supply in a world at war. It just might do the trick.
(Tara Kartha is a former Director, National Security Council Secretariat)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
