Pakistan's geoeconomic ambitions find themselves in an anticipated predicament amid the resurgence of violence in the restive province of Balochistan. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) on January 31 launched the second phase of its 'Operation Herof', targeting over ten districts across the province. While conflicting casualty reports have emerged, local reports state the involvement of suicide bombers, including female fighters in the operation. In retaliation, the Pakistani security forces launched a counter-militancy operation and reported the killing of over 150 BLA-linked militants in the aftermath of the violence. During the operation, the authorities reportedly suspended mobile services in several districts, including the provincial capital of Quetta, and Mastung, Kalat, Khuzdar, Nushki, Dalbandin, and Kharan. Military measures have often accompanied communication blackouts as part of the state's response to security challenges in Balochistan.
However, the Pakistani state framed the insurgency as externally driven, designating BLA militants as 'Fitna-al-Hindustan' to allege Indian involvement. Within hours of the incident, Pakistan's Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi in a statement said, "These were not normal terrorists. India is behind these attacks. I can tell you for sure that India planned these attacks along with these terrorists." The Pakistani authorities have previously also accused Afghanistan and Iran's role in the Baloch militancy theater. While Baloch militants are known to operate out of southern Afghanistan and southeastern Iran, Pakistan's accusations of state involvement continue to lack credibility or independently verifiable evidence.
The Nushki Gateway
During the operation, the BLA held control over Nushki, therefore highlighting the district as a critical flashpoint between the militants and Pakistani security forces. Strategic control over the territory of Nushki enables militants to sever the land link between the provincial capital, Quetta, and the western part of the province. More significantly, Nushki serves as the entry point to Chagai district, known to be the heart of Pakistan's mineral capital. Home to the Reko Diq gold and copper mines as well as the Saindak copper-gold project, Nushki holds considerable significance for Pakistan's currently expanding geoeconomic calculus. By maintaining a presence in the region, BLA has gestured with intention and capacity to disrupt the logistics of upcoming mining projects, which they have historically portrayed as 'colonial extraction' by the federal government.
The focus on Nushki reflects the insurgents' strategy to exploit geographic bottlenecks and paralyse state-led economic corridors and extractive projects. Foreign investors must be closely monitoring the existing security faultlines in Pakistan's restive provinces. Weeks after Pakistan's Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, showcased a briefcase of mineral samples in the presence of Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif at the White House in September 2025, Washington signalled interest in Pakistan's purportedly untapped mineral resources.
Billions Invested
In December 2025, the US Export-Import Bank approved USD 1.25 billion in financing for the Reko Diq copper-gold mining project, with US President Donald Trump publicly expressing business interest in Pakistan. In the following days, the 7th China-Pakistan foreign ministers' Strategic Dialogue's joint statement announced the prioritisation of the mining sector on January 4. Meanwhile, Pakistan's Federal Minister for Petroleum Ali Pervaiz Malik held a meeting on January 28 with the Australian High Commissioner to discuss bilateral cooperation in the mining and rare earth sectors.
While analysts have been tempted to frame the narrative around Pakistan's mineral wealth as a US-China competition, the domestic security challenges warrant foremost attention. For foreign investors, it is expected to remain an irritant, also considering that Pakistan's internal security resources already remain stretched thin. Alongside separatist violence in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa remains a conflict zone with the continued operations of Islamist factions, most prominently the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). In the Balochistan insurgency, the reported involvement of female fighters in active combat operations underscores the current character of the insurgency. This marks a big shift from the auxiliary roles Baloch women have historically played in the insurgency, thereby suggesting an expansion of the recruitment pool and psychological impact of the conflict.
Ambition vs Capacity
The sustenance of this conflict presents a challenge for large-scale extractive and connectivity projects for all foreign investors. Given that foreign investments require secure supply chains, predictability, and local legitimacy, Balochistan fits in none of these conditions. The militarised approach, including communication blackouts and enforced disappearances by Pakistan, may temporarily suppress violence. However, it is unlikely to address long-term drivers of the insurgency. Even as the international interest in Pakistan's mineral resources has increased, the dissonance between capacity and ambition will become clearer despite the optics of investment diplomacy.
(Aishwaria Sonavane is a research analyst at the Takshashila Institution)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
