From around the early 1990s, when Pakistan was unabashedly exporting terrorism into India, a few realists in the Indian establishment advanced the argument that India needed to use the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) to punish Pakistan. But successive governments in New Delhi balked at the idea of exercising this 'nuclear' option. Pusillanimity aside, the decision not to use IWT as a leverage was also guided by the traditional caution that has been the hallmark of India's 'grand strategy' or lack of it. To the extent that at the time, India was susceptible and vulnerable to external pressure from Western countries that seemed to indulge Pakistan and turn a blind eye to its deviant behaviour, the decision to err on the side of caution could be justified.
Over the last decade or so, not only has the cup of India's patience with Pakistani terrorism run over, but she has gained considerable economic and diplomatic heft and is more assertive on the global stage. Add to this a government in Delhi that is not risk-averse and has shed the diffidence and hesitation that afflicted its predecessors. After the 2019 Pulwama attack, the Indian establishment toyed with the idea of suspending the IWT. But the decision took a back seat because the government decided to prioritise constitutional reforms in Jammu and Kashmir. The process of chipping away at the treaty did commence. Six years later, Pakistan presented another opportunity after it unleashed its jihadist proxies aligned to Pakistan-based terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba to carry out a massacre in Pahalgam. The Pahalgam outrage was the tipping point for India to finally do what Pakistan never imagined she would do - place the IWT in 'abeyance'.
Arrogance, Then Bluster
As is their wont, the Pakistanis initially downplayed India's decision to put the IWT in a state of suspended animation. The loudmouth spokesman of the Pakistan Army indulged in the usual bombast and declared that if India blocked Pakistan's water, Pakistan would 'strangulate' India. There was also the usual rhetoric of how meddling with the IWT or not adhering to it would be seen as an 'Act of War'. But as weeks and months passed, the Pakistanis started realising the magnitude of the move made by India, more so after the floods in Punjab last year. Until the floods, Pakistani officials and talking heads were claiming that all India could do was stop sharing data on river waters. This data could be gathered through other sources by Pakistan. According to them, India just did not have the infrastructure to divert or even manipulate the flow of water into Pakistan-controlled territory. The floods that devastated large areas of Pakistani Punjab, however, belied the claims of such 'experts'. Within weeks of the floods, Pakistan suddenly realised that the river flows in Chenab had become erratic and no longer conformed to traditional flow patterns. Soon, the penny dropped that even with the run-of-river dams India had built, it could manipulate the flows to a point that could cause pain, especially since Pakistan did not have the reservoirs to store the waters being released.
Because Pakistan was suddenly the new 'BFF' of the mercurial US president, and its diplomatic profile had taken a bit of a flight, it perhaps thought it could get its way in international forums. Pakistan managed to get favourable verdicts from the court of arbitration. But India refused to recognise the jurisdiction of this forum and outrightly rejected it. Since then, Pakistan has been doing the usual sabre-rattling, one day threatening nuclear war, another day threatening to cut off India's hands, a third day making some other bizarre and blood-curdling threat. As part of its campaign, Pakistan sent senior officials to western countries to lobby for its case and put pressure on India to restore the IWT. However, these efforts did not receive much traction. The World Bank, which facilitated the treaty, has begged off from intervening in the issue.
Failed Efforts At Narrative-Building
The international conferences Pakistan has organised, the social media campaigns and Punjabi English TV channels it has launched to project its image, have all fallen flat. All of these appear to be a case of Pakistanis trying to lobby Pakistanis against India, with a few obscure alleged scholars and influencers from other countries thrown in to make it look as if some major international pressure is being mounted on India. But people like a known Chinese Communist Party puppet like Victor Gao or some unknown Russian academic don't really add to much. Even otherwise, the logic being used by Pakistan to make its case doesn't have many buyers. For instance, Pakistan has accused India of 'weaponising water'. But the fact is, water has always been weaponised. One example of this is the bundh-cum-ditch defences that Pakistan has built. which are essentially the weaponisation of water. The Pakistanis, through CCP mouthpieces like Gao, have also threatened that China will start building dams on rivers that flow into India as retaliation. Again, however, the fact is that the Chinese have already been building dams on rivers flowing into India and have not even bothered to inform us, much less share data of these projects with India. Pakistan has also never protested against Chinese dams on Indus, Sutlej or Brahmaputra.
Threats Simply Won't Work
Pakistan's hysterics and fits haven't impressed India, much less make her re-consider her stand on IWT. As far as India is concerned, Pakistan's use of terrorism as an instrument of state policy against India violates a fundamental pillar of the IWT, vi "the spirit of good and friendship" and, therefore, India is under no obligation under the said treaty. This is relevant also in the context of Pakistanis and their advocates in India making the case that this treaty ensures regional stability. The fact is that it does no such thing because two big wars and numerous small wars had been imposed on India by Pakistan while this treaty was in force. Perhaps, using the treaty as leverage might work better in knocking good sense among the generally boorish generals of Pakistan Army to behave in a civilised manner.
As things stand, although the treaty is technically put in 'abeyance', for all practical purposes, the treaty, as it existed, is over. The Indian stand is that the treaty can be restored only if and when Pakistan dismantles the infrastructure of its jihadist-Islamist terror aimed against India. And even after that, the treaty will have to cater to the changes in technology and environment that have taken place since it was originally negotiated. This means that the kind of obstructionism, or, if you will, weaponisation of the letter of the IWT that Pakistan would do to stall run-of-river hydropower projects or use new techniques to increase the efficiency and life of these projects, will no longer be allowed. What has spooked the Pakistanis and sent them panicking is the fact that India has already announced new projects on the 'Western Rivers' and renovations in some old projects to increase their efficiency. This is being done with no reference to Pakistan.
A Self-Inflicted Crisis
The Pakistanis have a small window of opportunity to clean up their act and come back to the table to discuss the restoration of the treaty. All their war talk and threats of nuclear Armageddon won't bring the treaty back. India would have no hesitation in restoring the treaty albeit with some changes. But if Pakistan decides to continue with its sabre-rattling, it will miss what is on offer and will be confronted with the fait accompli of India building new infrastructure and remodeling existing dams. Given Pakistan's track record of not missing any opportunity to miss an opportunity, it will continue to go for broke, not realising that the ground has already shifted and what is on offer today will not be on offer tomorrow. But because Pakistan is what it is, it will prefer to first use lawfare and then try proxy warfare to force India to relent. Only after both tracks fail will it try to reach out and seek a diplomatic solution using the fifth column in India to plead its case.
India needs to be prepared for Pakistan ratcheting up military tensions and using terrorism to make its case. Given its desperation, Operation Sindoor 2.0 may just come sooner than anyone expects. But Pakistan should keep in mind that any such action will lead to India no longer just putting IWT in abeyance but actually abrogating it.
(The author is a Senior Fellow at ORF)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
