Everyone seems to be everywhere at once. India's Foreign Minister, S. Jaishankar, was recently in Moscow meeting his counterpart as well as the President. The National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, just returned from there, and the Prime Minister will soon visit Tianjin for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit. China's Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, has just left Delhi after signing an unusually cordial joint statement. All very heady stuff. But hang on - Wang Yi then left for Kabul for a Pakistan-Afghanistan trilateral. That would normally have put Delhi in a tizzy. Matters are shifting and changing rather quickly. Everyone is feeling out the outlines of the ‘new world disorder'.
The Trilateral Thing
Wang Yi flew directly to Kabul for the trilateral, a visit about which Delhi would have been briefed to some extent. This process first started in 2017 but never took off until 2022, a year after the Taliban took over Afghanistan. China, which had previously relied on Pakistan for its Afghan influence, was by this time ready to launch out on its own, without the Pakistan army's hand jogging its elbow. Its new ambassador, Zhao Sheng, was welcomed lavishly in 2023, though it seemed this did not amount to formal recognition. China's influence spread rapidly, until in 2025 a ‘role reversal' occurred, with Beijing pushing for better ties between the Taliban and its erstwhile Pakistani patrons. At an ‘informal' trilateral in Beijing in May 2025, the Taliban were told in no uncertain terms that their future lay in making up with Pakistan. The read-out of the meeting plugged exchange of ambassadors on both sides and a strict admonition to both sides to ‘jointly combat terrorism', the carrot at the end of all this being Beijing's promise to help in developing Afghanistan.
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It is this format that has been taken forward with a good deal more of finger-wagging by Wang Yi, who said that China is “ready to work with Afghanistan and Pakistan to deepen good-neighborliness and mutual trust…and firmly oppose(d) interference by any external forces in the region, as well as any organization or individual engaging in acts within their countries that undermine the national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of the other sides”. Though the ‘external' force is not specified, the Pakistanis would certainly have complained loudly about India. But there's another aspect. Russia has long accused the US of supporting a section of the Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) in Afghanistan, a proposition now aired by none other than The Economist, which quotes Pakistani officials to note that the ISK is supported by the US to undermine Russia and China. Remember how departing US troops had, rather mysteriously, left behind a treasure trove of American small arms and light weapons that are now spreading across the region.
Meanwhile, Wang Yi's direction to the two uneasy ‘partners' is to “safeguard regional peace and stability, and strive to create a sound external environment for the development and revitalization of each side”. In other words, stop fighting and start trading.
The Riches In The Valley
With his bilateral with the Taliban, a more-than-friendly statement promised early work on mining and exploration of mineral resources, which are estimated by the US Geological Survey to be worth “trillions”. For instance, the Hajigak iron ore deposit alone, where India's Steel Authority of India leads a consortium of companies, is believed to contain up to 2 billion metric tons of high-grade ore. China took up the Mes Aynak copper deposit in Logar Province, which holds over 12 million metric tons of copper - resources valued at more than $50 billion in the global market. India went into Afghanistan in 2011, and China in 2008. Neither has been able to extract anything, so far. It's not just a security situation, but about the wherewithal to get it out of the country. China had promised the infrastructure to connect Afghanistan to Central Asia. That didn't happen either. Which is why Wang Yi is now talking of completing a railway line to Pakistan and a tie-up with CPEC.
There's more to tempt Beijing, including substantial lithium reserves, located primarily in the provinces of Ghazni, Nuristan, and Helmand. Apart from this are some 47 oil wells, the majority of them concentrated in the Sar-e Pol, Sheberghan, and Amu Darya basins.
Why Kabul Is More Interested In China
At the trilateral, the Pakistan Foreign Minister, Ishaq Dar, nodded enthusiastically and declared a ‘shared determination' to promote regional peace and the works. But even as he spoke, Afghan trucks carrying fruit, among other things, were being held up at Torkham and other borders for days together, causing severe losses - all this after the trading points were officially open. No wonder then that rumours noted how Dar was not welcome as per the protocol due to him when he reached Kabul, being received by a Deputy Foreign Minister rather than the Foreign Minister himself.
Point being, Kabul wants to cosy up to China. About Pakistan, it is far less enthusiastic. This is also why Beijing's offer to link up the Afghan trade route with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) may not enthuse Kabul. It would much rather have the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) going north to link up with the Chinese highways, or use Iran's Chabahar, which has no nasty strings attached.
The Last Stop: Pakistan
Wang Yi then went on to his final stop in Pakistan, where he met his counterpart in a meeting that seems to have been admirably brief, but which had some vital points that need to be read in their entirety. At the presser, he linked India, Pakistan and Afghanistan entirely, noting that though all three “have different national conditions, they all recognize that development is the top priority and the broadest consensus among them”, adding that “a peaceful, stable and prosperous South Asia serves the common interests of all parties and meets the aspirations of the people of all countries. In the face of pressure from unilateral bullying … the three countries all believe that they should adhere to multilateralism, safeguard their legitimate rights and interests, and strive to promote equal and orderly multipolarization of the world and inclusive economic globalization”. Notably, he added, “The three countries are willing to strengthen good-neighborly friendship with China, their largest neighbor, deepen exchanges and cooperation, and seek mutual benefit and win-win results”. All very interesting in terms of a regional frame for a nice, wide picture.
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Wang also met the real power centre. Pakistani media shows the Chief of Army Staff and Field Marshal, Asim Munir, beaming from ear to ear at a less-than-enthusiastic Wang Yi. While local media covered the visit in glowing terms - as always - there is little clarity on what the Chinese wanted. Both sides seem ready to proceed with the second phase of CPEC - delayed five years now - which refers rather mysteriously to several ‘corridors': for innovation, green energy, ‘Digital Pakistan', and an ‘Inclusive Regional Development' programme purportedly meant to reduce regional imbalances. That implies connectivity to Afghanistan and Iran. Pakistan still wants China to invest in the Mainline-1, a project that has been in the pipeline for years and whose budget has been scaled down from $9.85 billion to a rationalised and agreed-upon cost of $6.678 billion. Curious, since the basics of the proposed railway line remain the same. In other words, wrinkles in the corridor.
China's Big Gambit
In sum, this is China stepping into the breach created by Trump's shenanigans. Wang's China seems to be viewing the problem through the lens of South Asia as a whole. Notably, it has been talking up peace in the region and is stressing on ending terrorism for a good ‘regional ‘ climate. None of this means that China is willing to give up on Pakistan, especially with the US knocking on the door and Secretary Rubio due to visit. But Beijing has realised what the US hasn't: that it is better to take the biggies in South Asia along as a whole, rather than letting Washington use its divide-and-rule strategy. That's smart. Whether it will work is another matter.
Meanwhile, Afghanistan's lithium deposits are likely to prove equivalent to what oil was for West Asia - trouble and political interference. In short, Delhi needs to gird itself for trouble all around. More hectic diplomatic activity can be expected. Time to pack that box, even while thinking outside it.
(Tara Kartha was with the National Security Council Secretariat)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
