The Blue tsunami on Capitol Hill washed away many Republicans and changed the landscape, but it's unlikely to sweep India's existing woes with President Donald Trump into oblivion.
A divided government could be worse for all concerned as Democrats lock horns with Trump and demand answers on war and peace. Gridlocks are a typical characteristic of such situations, eating up legislative time and littering the battleground.
On the bright side, issues related to India may fly under the radar and not attract undue attention from new members interested in human rights and issues related to religious freedom. “Democratic backsliding” - a term coined by Democrats - might come into vogue again.
Sensing a friendly environment in Congressional corridors, quasi-official bodies and busybodies both may become hyperactive, trying to generate letters of condemnation against the Indian government from incoming members, especially those from the left. But such letters are generally performative and should be treated as such.
Be it tariffs or Russian oil or immigration issues, it's best not to expect dramatic changes just because the Democrats are in power, especially because Delhi has put more faith in the Republicans in recent times, only to be shocked by the second Trump Administration.
Much as policy makers in New Delhi would like to wish, hope, and read into the stunning outcome of the US midterm elections, the world according to Democrats may only differ on the margins while remaining the same in the centre.
A better balance between the executive and legislative branches will no doubt emerge, but Trump will still have the final word on foreign policy issues. His unpredictability and propensity to rule by executive orders are unlikely to diminish. He may want to punish those he still can, especially abroad. As they say, a wounded tiger is more dangerous.
Prepare for a more divided, contested Washington, which may not have the time or bandwidth to take up India-related issues, leave alone resolve them. But it may still hurt Indian interests on the sidelines. Some are worried that India could get it “from both sides” now. Preemptive outreach to incoming members can certainly help.
It's important to remember that the contest for 2028 presidential contest began as the midterm elections ended, with potential candidates testing the waters. They may be occupied more with fund-raising than Congressional business.
The primary focus of a Democratic-controlled Congress will be on domestic issues on which the party swept the polls. Three “A's” will likely dominate the agenda - efforts on finding answers to affordability, accountability, and anti-corruption issues.
“Affordability' was a key plank for the Democrats. It resonated with the people hurting from high prices all around. Gas, diesel, fertilizers, and food prices registered an increase, largely as a result of Trump's war of choice against Iran.
To bring prices down, the incoming Congress is expected to address the president's tariff wars against the world, which may address Indian concerns but peripherally. Sweeping tariffs on imports have been one of the main reasons for a rise in prices in consumer products, while the Iran war pushed the cost of gas and diesel because of disruption in oil supplies from the Middle East.
But the ability of Congress to curb presidential trade authority is limited. It means rewriting major trade laws which even the optimists say is a bridge too far. Things can change only if Democrats can muster enough Republican votes to counter Trump's veto which he has already announced he plans to use frequently.
As Democrats tackle the issue, another complicating factor could be the bipartisan antipathy to Russia. It was with Democratic support that the current Congress passed the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act (SRIA) of 2026 this year, which directly impacts India, a major buyer of Russian oil.
Although Trump waived the sanctions two days before the act was to come into effect, the law remains a weapon in Trump's arsenal. It allows him to impose tariffs of up to 100% on the top five buyers of Russian oil, India included. How the new Congress tackles politics around Russia is anyone's guess.
The Democrats have said they will use the “power of the purse” and war powers resolutions to try to force Trump's hand on Iran and push him to end the war. India will find relief if they succeed. Congressman Ro Khanna has suggested that money for combat activity by US troops in Iran should be prohibited to bring an end to the war of choice.
If the new Congress succeeds in cornering Trump, not only India but the whole world would heave a sigh of relief.
(Seema Sirohi is a Washington, DC-based columnist and the author of 'Friends With Benefits: The India-US Story', a book about the past 30 years of the relationship)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
