Opinion | Trump's Gaza Plan: Ushering "Peace for Our Time" In West Asia?

President Trump's sudden announcement on October 9 about Hamas and Israel having both "signed on the First Phase of his Peace Plan for Gaza" might have prompted many Indians to call out de ja vous - reminding them of a similar Trumpian claim five months ago, taking credit for stopping the four-day-old India-Pakistan air war. The two claims have similarities, but also fundamental differences. These were both premature and prompted by ulterior motives, viz., a full-throated and self-serving quest for the Nobel Peace Prize, which ironically still eluded him. The differences between the two cases, however, are quite stark and require some analysis.

It's Just That Complicated

Firstly, while taking credit for stopping the India-Pakistan air war might be a Trumpian "Truthful Hyperbole" and confined to largely calling up the two capitals over a relatively short span, the Gaza cessation needed a protracted engagement with the two belligerents. It did not help that Washington had proscribed one of them, Hamas, as a non-state actor deemed a terrorist outfit, while its proximity to the other, Israel, was widely disapproved, particularly by the Arab-Islamic Ummah.

Secondly, as compared to the relatively simple act of persuading the two South Asian leaderships to de-escalate, the Gaza bid was quite complex, involving a group of mediators, as Washington needed to cobble an elaborate, sequentially arranged, multi-phase Peace Plan.

Not So Easy, Not So Soon

Thirdly, while Trump's proverbially short transactional attention conveniently moved on to the sub-continent once the ceasefire was achieved, the Gaza ceasefire is a sticky can of worms. The long-elusive ceasefire is only the opening overture of a fiendishly complicated serial act. To begin with, it requires sustained follow-up through multi-layered minefields, involving meeting the humanitarian needs and resettlement of over 2 million Gazans, living amidst millions of tons of debris that the UN estimated might take a decade for clearance.

Fourthly, the US and other stakeholders would then have to wade through a veritable obstacle course, which Trump's 20-point programme has charmingly glossed over. For instance, persuading Hamas and associated militias, in power for nearly two decades and having survived through two years of an all-out Israeli onslaught, to agree to disappear both militarily and politically. The initial post-ceasefire developments belie that intention. Further, creating a Hamas-proof political and security state structure from scratch would require patience and perseverance, particularly if Hamas resists it. Further, a universally acceptable pathway to a viable Palestinian State would meander through comprehensive reforms to the Palestine Authority (PA). Morphing the PA into an entity perfect at governance and yet subservient enough to be acceptable to Israel and the settlers is a contradiction in terms and a prescription for instability.

Account For The 'Other' Actors

Once all these mutually contradictory pre-requisites are met, the White House's long-term ambition of extending the Abraham Accords to Saudi Arabia and other prominent Arab and Islamic countries could be realised. Only then can Trump's breezy claim of "Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace" in the region at hand become a fait accompli. But the scenario presupposes that in the meantime, the rejectionists led by Iran and motley fundamentalists such as ISIS and al-Qaeda would lie low. That is a highly unlikely prospect. No wonder seasoned observers of the volatile region, while acknowledging the tactical gains of the typical sleight of hand by Trump, may advise taking it with a ladleful of salt.

The Text Itself

A careful parsing of the 20-point Trump Plan, revealed on September 27 after close consultations with the Israeli Prime Minister and eight Arab and Islamic leaders, makes for interesting reading. It is carefully scripted - to avoid various red lines such as a "two-state solution", "the past UN resolutions and role of its agencies", "Gaza Riviera", "Palestinian territorial integrity", "genocide and war crimes", "Israeli settlements", etc. At the same time, it includes the various essential buzz words insisted upon by various stakeholders: such as Israeli sine quo non "immediate release of all hostages", creating Gaza as a "deradicalised terror-free zone that does not pose a threat to its neighbours", Israeli "security perimeter presence", "No role for Hamas and other factions", etc. For Hamas, there are references to "amnesty", "non-occupation and non-annexation of Gaza", "full restoration of aid", "redeveloped for the benefit of the people of Gaza", "No one will be forced to leave Gaza", and the US-led dialogue between Israel and Palestinians. To entice Saudi Arabia and other fence-sitting Arab-Islamic countries, specific mention has been made of "pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, which we recognise as the aspiration of the Palestinian people", "PA reforms", "transitional governance of a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee", "interfaith dialogue" to promote tolerance and peaceful co-existence". Finally, for the personal aggrandisement of the occupant of the White House, the plan talks of a "Board of Peace headed and chaired by President Donald J. Trump" and "Trump economic development plan to rebuild and energise Gaza".

Conspicuous by their absence in the text are any roles for the "international community" (excluding the Western Europeans, Russians, Chinese and the UN at large), the "Arab League", the "OIC", etc. This uncompromisingly ensured that Washington remains the only arbiter of this process - apparently, Trump's regional stakes are too high to accept other meddlers. The only global aspect included is the International Stabilisation Force (ISF), which would do the dirty work of ensuring the return to peace and normalcy in Gaza after two years of volatility. Interestingly, the US has announced an initial contribution of 200 military personnel to the ISF, with the caveat that they would not serve in Gaza. While the Chinese have remained taciturn about the evolving Trump Plan, Moscow has voiced reserved support.

The Art Of The Deal - No, Really

Even though the contents of the 20-point plan were quite elastic and custom-tailored, the tactics deployed in pursuing its acceptance were straight out of the four-decade-old, ghost-written Trumpian classic, The Art of the Deal. It leveraged the dynamics of his symbiotic relationships with both Netanyahu and the Gulf Arab leaders, alternately coordinating, refining, and even cajoling them. Selective White House leaks and the use of his regional envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner were deployed to keep his interlocutors off balance and portray the White House as being tough on Israel. Frequent, starkly worded, one-liner public ultimata were issued to Hamas to intimidate and create an aura of omnipotency. Pressure was also mounted on Hamas through its traditional supporters such as Qatar and Turkey. As the short-term results showed, the ends justified the means, but we would have to wait for the dust to settle to have the full silhouette of this narrow-based Trump Tower still being built.

War prevention and war cessation is a messy and risky business, not given to lofty claims. Most wars eventually end in a political settlement. However, sometimes, the converse is also true. On his return from Munich on September 30, 1938, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain told his countrymen that the "Munich Agreement" giving Sudetenland to Nazi Germany and the bilateral Naval Agreement signed alongside would ensure "peace for our time", recommending them to "go home and sleep quietly in your beds". Within 11 months began the Second World War, the most destructive carnage humanity has ever witnessed. We still remember President George W Bush II claiming the "Mission Accomplished" in 2003 in Iraq - only to be followed over a decade of bloodletting. Consequently, even as we mark the release of hostages and prisoners today, it's too early to tell whether history will etch the Trumpian October 12 claim "The War is Over" and his assertion "I think it's (the region) going to normalise" next to the other two instances of make-believe and braggadocio.

(Mahesh Sachdev is a retired Indian Ambassador. He currently heads Eco-Diplomacy and Strategies, a Delhi-based consultancy)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author