Opinion | Trump, Tughlaq, Tariffs: The Dangers Of Strength Without Sense

President Donald Trump's announcement of a punitive 50% tariff on India for its continued purchase of Russian oil is a dejà vu for Delhi from a very different century. Impulsive, poorly thought through, and oblivious to the complex realities of modern geopolitics, the decision bears an uncanny resemblance to the 14th-century decisions of Muhammad bin Tughlaq, the eccentric Sultan of Delhi, whose reign is synonymous with grand ideas that ended in spectacular failure.

Like Trump, Tughlaq was often described as an erratic ruler with no shortage of ambition but a chronic inability to foresee the consequences. Among his most infamous decisions was the attempt to shift his entire capital from Delhi to Daulatabad, a logistical nightmare that hollowed out the empire, alienated his subjects, and caused massive disruption. And just like Trump, Tughlaq is also said to have been exceptionally touchy. If anyone thinks that the US tariffs are not a response to India's refusal to pander to Trump's endless ceasefire claims, they are missing an important and obvious aspect of Trump's personality.   

For The Love Of Drama

Trump's tariff on India seems driven less by strategic calculation and more by the optics of dominance and disciplining. The move might resonate with specific domestic constituencies, but ultimately ignores the web of modern global interdependence. The irony here is bitter. In a multipolar world, where rising powers like India balance ties across the geopolitical spectrum and are unwilling to be pawns in a binary global order, Trump's action smacks of medieval absolutism. A zero-sum worldview that confuses punishment for diplomacy. 

Just like India's policy of strategic non-alignment, Vietnam's "Bamboo Diplomacy," rooted in a 2016 speech by former leader Nguyen Phu Trong, offers a case study in pragmatic, non-aligned foreign policy. Despite a shared communist heritage with China and long-standing ties to Russia, Hanoi has taken a cautious, flexible stance on Ukraine, while simultaneously deepening its relationships with the West, including Washington. Vietnam's tariff stands at 20%.

Trump's tariff tantrum exposes that he doesn't understand this chaotic, overlapping world order. By punishing India for engaging with Russia - a country it has long-standing defence and energy ties with - Trump is effectively demanding loyalty in a geopolitical climate where exclusive allegiances are a relic of the past. 

Let's Be Real

India's balancing act is illustrative. It continues to court investment from the West, primarily through revived EU-India trade talks, while also purchasing discounted Russian crude to stabilise its own economy. The EU, for its part, has been struggling to transition away from Russian energy - a process that will take years and substantial investment. (As yet, the EU has not been punished by Washington's Tughlaq for it.) No serious European policymaker today would suggest punishing India for its energy calculus. Economic realities and corresponding energy needs don't bend easily to moral imperatives or geopolitical ultimatums.

Trump, however, prefers the politics of spectacle over the nuance of diplomacy. The Oval Office scene with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has not yet been forgotten. The Pew Research Centre's recent survey across 24 countries shows just how divisive his leadership style remains. Majorities in 19 countries expressed little or no confidence in his ability to handle global affairs. Large numbers view him as a "strong leader" - a testament to the endurance of the strongman archetype. Strong leaders can build states, but they can also leave a trail of international chaos.

Trump, Like Tughlaq

This is the paradox of Trump - and of Tughlaq before him. Strength without strategy. Vision without realism. Leadership that inspires awe and fear but leaves rubble in its wake. This dichotomy - admired for strength, distrusted for decisions - is also a warning. It suggests that global leadership today is dangerously susceptible to theatrics. In an age where multipolarity is taking root, where countries like India and Vietnam are crafting non-exclusive partnerships and resisting bloc politics, the Trumpian impulse to enforce allegiance through economic threats feels not just outdated, but counterproductive.
Muhammad bin Tughlaq's name endures not for the empire he built, but for the opportunities he squandered and the chaos he sowed. If Donald Trump wishes to avoid a similar legacy in foreign policy, he would do well to remember that strength without sense is no virtue - and that in today's world, the game is not domination, but collaboration. The Global South is not waiting to be invited into alliances shaped in Washington, London, Brussels, or Berlin. It can also not be bullied into choosing sides in great power rivalries. 

The transactional nature of American diplomacy rightly figured out the importance of India in the global order after a long iciness in bilateral relations. Previous dispensations in Washington recognised that sovereignty is not up for negotiation. Modern diplomacy requires treating partners as equals, not vassals. Trump has channelled only the erraticism of Tughlaq and not his wisdom or sophistication. India will definitely suffer after losing access to the largest market in the world, but what is the vision for the US? The billions in tariff dollars are not really flying into the US territory. 

Of course, Tughlaq's downfall was ultimately hastened by his own people, weary of his inconsistencies and unpredictability. 

(Nishtha Gautam is a Delhi-based academic and author)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author