When the US steps back, China moves in. Beijing is making significant inroads in Africa, using a combination of investment and soft power in a region that's now a vital player in the global contest for resources.
The strategy is working. In parts of Africa, public opinion on China is more favourable than in many other regions, according to an Asia Society survey released this month. That enthusiasm contrasts sharply with Beijing's standing in the West and some of Asia, where views have soured dramatically.
The advance is intentional. Sub-Saharan Africa's share of the global population will more than double this century, according to World Bank data. That could potentially turbo-charge international growth, despite low levels of purchasing power. Africa is home to 30 per cent of the world's mineral reserves, many of which are pivotal for the clean energy industry.
Beijing's popularity is helping it to score points against Washington. And in the race for these critical elements, it's drawing ahead. News earlier this month that Morocco had secured $5.6 billion in funding to host the continent's first-ever battery gigafactory is just the latest sign of how Chinese investment is transforming the region into a key supplier of batteries for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage.
Chinese firms currently account for 8 per cent of Africa's total mining output. That's still well below Western giants, but the trend is shifting. Recent deals have stretched across the region, with companies making major acquisitions for copper in Zambia, cobalt in the Democratic Republic of Congo and lithium in Zimbabwe.
But this is about more than resources. It's about cultivating a new generation of leaders shaped by Beijing's political worldview. Cultural exchanges, scholarships and ideological training schools are helping China achieve this. The continent has become a testing ground for President Xi Jinping's Global Security Initiative, aimed at reshaping international governance structures to create a more conducive environment for his foreign policy goals.
It's an effective approach. Positive views of China among citizens in sub-Saharan Africa far outnumbered negatives — roughly 3-to-1, according to the Asia Society. And it's not just among the elite. Beijing is genuinely popular with ordinary people, the study shows. In contrast, average approval ratings in North America, Europe, Latin America, South Asia, and Oceania have all become much more negative. The picture is even worse among Northeast Asian countries, while Southeast Asia's once strong positivity has cooled.
This relationship has historic roots. China supported several African liberation movements during the Cold War, partly to diminish the West's influence. In 1971, it was African votes at the United Nations that helped Beijing displace Taiwan and claim China's seat on the Security Council.
In contrast, under President Donald Trump's America First mantra, Washington has focused its attention away from Africa. This undermines US relevance in the global race for technological and strategic superiority.
There are legitimate concerns about China's aims in Africa, particularly around what Beijing will want in return for its largesse. The US has complained these strategies will create a network of vassal states, forced to service their debts by offering China access to resources, trade opportunities and locations for military bases. Beijing already has one naval facility in Djibouti in the Horn of Africa, and there is speculation it wants another in the region.
But for many African leaders, China's offer of infrastructure, funding and jobs is more tangible than Western promises, which are often coupled with unwelcome lectures on human rights. At last year's Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Summit in Beijing, Xi offered Africa $50 billion and promised a million jobs. For a continent facing immense development needs, this is hard to turn down.
To stay relevant to future generations, Washington needs to genuinely re-engage with the continent. Chinese foreign ministers have typically prioritised Africa for their first overseas trip of the year. That level of commitment from the US is lacking, not just from the Trump administration, but from previous governments, too. Extending a duty-free trade program for African manufacturers, which is due to expire at the end of this month, would be an immediate act of goodwill.
African nations, for their part, should avoid overdependence on a single partner. There's already some scepticism about Beijing's generosity — at times coming from Africans themselves. In 2023, the International Monetary Fund and World Bank identified at least 13 African countries at high risk of debt distress. Seven were already in trouble, with China holding an average of 12 per cent to 20 per cent of their external debt. Balancing Chinese investment with others could reduce vulnerability to economic leverage and political influence. Pushing for deals that maximise technology transfers, create local jobs, and provide training for in-country staff would help strengthen long-term growth versus the short-term extraction of precious resources.
With rare earths and critical minerals in high demand, the continent is in a stronger bargaining position than ever before. It shouldn't squander the moment.
(Karishma Vaswani is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia politics.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
