With Uttar Pradesh headed for assembly elections next year, a contest widely billed as the 'semi-finale' before the 2029 Lok Sabha battle, Rahul Gandhi has once again put OBC politics, caste census, and reservations at the centre of the Congress campaign. The timing is deliberate. Uttar Pradesh sends more MPs to Parliament than any other state, and whoever controls Lucknow shapes the national narrative going into the next general election.
The Missing Column
At the heart of Rahul Gandhi's latest offensive is a technical-sounding but politically loaded complaint: the ongoing national census does not carry a dedicated OBC column. The Congress argues this is not an oversight but a deliberate dilution, calling the absence of an OBC field in the questionnaire a serious concern and accusing the government of trying to weaken the caste census exercise.
This complaint arrives at an awkward moment for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). After years of resisting the demand, the Modi government relented and agreed to conduct a caste enumeration alongside the delayed decennial census. For the Congress, that concession itself was proof that sustained pressure had worked. But having won the principle, the Congress is now contesting the method.
Proportion And Population
Rahul Gandhi has revived a slogan with deep roots in Mandal-era politics: representation in proportion to population. Congress has repackaged it for the current moment, pairing the demand for accurate enumeration with a call to lift the 50% cap on reservations once real numbers are available.
Rahul Gandhi has framed the caste census as an 'X-ray of India', a foundational data exercise, not merely an electoral talking point. He argues that policy cannot be designed for communities that have never been properly counted.
The BJP has pushed back hard, branding Congress "anti-OBC" and "anti-reservation". BJP spokespersons have pointed to the party's own record of promoting OBC leadership at the state and national level, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi's backward-caste identity. They have accused Rahul Gandhi of hypocrisy, noting that Rajiv Gandhi had opposed OBC reservations in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
OBC support had propelled the BJP to form a government with record mandates in 2014 and 2019. The BJP's support from upper and lower OBCs almost doubled in 2019 compared to 2014, and this has come at the cost of Congress as well as Others (regional and smaller parties/Independents).
In 2024, however, the BJP lost 2% support amongst upper OBCs while gaining similar numbers from lower OBC groups. The Congress, on the other hand, gained 5% from upper OBCs and 8% from lower OBCs, riding on its "samvidhan khatre mein hai" (Constitution is in danger) campaign and the caste census plank.
Why UP Is The Real OBC Battleground
OBCs make up roughly 40% of the state's population - Yadavs around 11%, Kurmis about 5%, Koeri/Kushwahas near 4%, and a long tail of "Other OBCs" making up the remaining 20%. For a decade, the BJP's dominance in Uttar Pradesh rested on a coalition that went beyond its traditional upper-caste base to include non-Yadav OBCs, who saw the Samajwadi Party as a Yadav-first outfit.
That coalition delivered the BJP sweeping wins in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP wrested the state from the Samajwadi Party in the 2017 Vidhan Sabha polls, and retained it in 2022. The 2024 general elections broke that pattern. The Samajwadi Party, in alliance with the Congress (INDIA bloc), won 43 of Uttar Pradesh's 80 Lok Sabha seats, pulling the BJP's national tally below the 272-seat majority mark for the first time in the Modi era.
Estimates from that campaign point to real erosion in the BJP's non-Yadav OBC support: Kurmi and Koeri backing reportedly slipped from around 66% in 2022 to 61% in 2024 - a five-point drop - while support among other OBC groups fell from about 66% to 59%, a seven-point drop. Over the same period, the INDIA bloc's standing among these same blocs rose by 9 and 11 points, respectively.
Akhilesh Yadav adopted a 'PDA' formula, focusing on 'Pichda' (backward), Dalit, and 'Alpasankhyak' (minority) groups. By reducing core family/community saturation - giving only five tickets to Yadavs and four to Muslims - the party successfully countered the BJP's accusations of the SP being a Muslim-Yadav party. It gave 27 tickets to non-Yadav OBCs, fifteen to Scheduled Castes (Dalits), and 11 to General/Upper Caste candidates.
The INDIA bloc made a strong comeback in OBC-influenced seats in the 2024 general elections. Of the 68 Yadav-dominated seats, the INDIA bloc led in 44 assembly segments, a gain of eight seats compared to 2022, while the NDA led in 24, a loss of six. The losses were bigger in Kurmi-influenced seats, in which the INDIA bloc led in 23 assembly segments - a gain of 14 - while the NDA led in just 12, a loss of 14. In 60 Kurmi-Koeri-Kushwaha-influenced seats, the INDIA bloc led in 41 assembly segments (a gain of 27), while the NDA lost 29.
This shift, coupled with the decline in support from upper castes and non-Jatavs, was large enough to cost the BJP close to a hundred assembly-segment leads compared to 2022, with SP+ estimated to be ahead in roughly 224 segments against the BJP's 175. In terms of vote share, both alliances were tied at around 44%.
Out of every 100 voters who backed the BJP, 47 were from the OBC community in 2022. This dropped to 43 in 2024. Of the 99 seats gained by the INDIA bloc, more than a third came from OBC-influenced seats.
New Problems
Complicating this caste arithmetic is a newer, less predictable factor: youth discontent and allegations of 'chanda chori' in Ayodhya's Ram Temple. Rahul Gandhi hopes that the non-Yadav OBC youth, the bedrock of the BJP's support base and among whom the discontent over the lack of jobs and paper leaks is growing, coupled with middle-aged and senior OBCs frustrated with 'chanda chori', could give a big boost to the INDIA bloc's vote share this time and thus help it unseat the Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government.
The BJP is wary of both the PDA formula, Gen Z discontent, and Hindu frustrations over 'chanda chori' after the upset in the 2024 general elections. The BJP intends to offset these trends by making appropriate, poll-aligned appointments. Pankaj Chaudhary, who hails from the Kurmi community, has been appointed state president. A large number of tickets will be given to Kurmi and other non-Yadav OBC communities in the assembly elections. A fascinating contest is on the cards.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
