Analysis | What Are Vijay's 5 Big Options Right Now? Look At Maharashtra, Bihar, And Karnataka

The political situation in Tamil Nadu remains fluid, with the Governor asking the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) to demonstrate the actual numbers it has on its side to cross the halfway mark in the assembly.

These are situations where the Governor's discretion plays an important role in the ensuing elections.

Likely Scenarios In Tamil Nadu

• President's Rule and one more election before the year-end: President's Rule can be extended six months at a time. So, if it is imposed with no suitable coalition forming the government, fresh elections have to be held, mostly before the year-end, to elect another assembly
• The DMK and the AIADMK try to cobble up a government. The two parties together have 106 seats. They will have to show the Governor the support of every single MLA to cross the 118 mark. However, the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) cannot cohabit in an alliance - just like, say, the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Which means that the minimum possible strength of the alliance is 121, but for that, it will have to include all parties: the Congress's five MLAs, the VCK, the MUL, the CPI, and the CPM's two each, and one each of the DMDK and the AMMK. But for this, every single party leader, such as Premalatha of the DMDK and Dhinakaran of the AMMK, will have to be appeased. Such a formation will thus be a nine-party alliance. 
• TVK aligns with a breakaway AIADMK group. The AIADMK splits, with two-thirds of its MLAs claiming to be a new party. For this, at least 34 MLAs of the AIADMK will have to walk out of the parent party and claim to be the original AIADMK. But for this, the leaders will need time to muster the numbers. The key question still would be, will the Governor wait before imposing President's Rule and calling for a fresh election?
• TVK makes way for multiple Deputy Chief Ministers. They will come from parties like the Congress, the PMK, and others, with the TVK heading a full coalition government. If the PMK does come over, this would mean doing business at least with two regional satraps: the DMDK and the AMMK, leading to a tally of 119. Or, the TVK would need to do business with the Left and the Muslim League, taking the tally to 123. Currently, the Left, Muslim League, and the VCK have pledged to be with the DMK, leaving the TVK with the option of banking on only the PMK (which has already demanded the Deputy Chief Minister post) and the DMDK and the AMMK.
• All TVK MLAs resign. This would reduce the legitimacy of the mandate. But there are past precedents. In 1972, all 14 CPM MLAs elected to the Bengal assembly refused to participate in the functioning of the assembly, as they called the election illegitimate. Such a step would exert the most pressure, but it remains to be seen whether things will come to this.

 The next 48 -72 hours shall be the most interesting ever in Tamil Nadu politics.

In the recent past, India has seen three instances of assemblies throwing up hung verdicts and Governors exercising their discretion. The outcomes have varied widely. Here's a recap

Bihar, 2005: A Year Of Two Assembly Elections

This was the year when two assembly elections were held in Bihar. It all started on February 27, 2005, when the Bihar Assembly results threw a fractured mandate. Three pre-poll alliances were in the offing: the NDA, with JD(U) and BJP; an RJD-Left combine; and an LJP-Congress front. 

However, the NDA failed to win a majority of 122. It bagged a total of 92 seats, with the JD(U) winning 55 and the BJP 37. The LJP-Congress alliance got 39 seats (LJP's 29 and Congress's 10), while the RJD-led front got 82 seats (RJD's 75, NCP's three, and the Left's four). Independents, on the other hand, got 17 seats, while the CPI(ML) got seven. Others' tally was six. 

Amidst these numbers, President's rule was imposed on March 7 as no government could be formed. It was then that the NDA's Nitish Kumar conveyed to the Governor that he enjoyed the support of 115 MLAs in the 243-member House. This was less than the halfway mark.  The only stable way to cobble up an alliance with a majority, for the NDA, was to split the LJP, taking its support fully and winning over smaller non-Left Parties.

Governor Buta Singh, deployed by the UPA government at the Centre, imposed President's Rule on May 21. This was approved by the Cabinet on the night of May 22, rendering the previous assembly redundant and paving the way for fresh elections. Elections were held again in October 2005 before the expiry of six months of the President's rule.

The final outcome was that the NDA emerged with a clear majority in subsequent elections held within a year and formed the government in November 2005.

The clincher here was the Governor's discretion. The single largest coalition needed time to cobble up an alliance. It was up to the Governor to decide whether to let them have that or go for fresh elections.

Karnataka, 2018 - The Single Largest Party Norm

Results for the assembly elections in Karnataka were declared on May 15, 2018. The BJP won 104 seats, falling just short of the 113 majority mark. The Congress won 78, and the JD(S) won 37; they were not pre-poll allies.

On May 16, Vajubhai Vala, the Governor of Karnataka, invited the BJP to form a government in Karnataka as the single-largest party. To this, Abhishek Manu Singhvi, representing the Congress and the JD(S), filed a petition with the Supreme Court, seeking a stay on the swearing-in ceremony of the BJP's BS Yeddyurappa. On May 19, realising he lacked the numbers to survive the trust vote, Yeddyurappa resigned.

Ultimately, the Congress and the JD(S) entered an alliance and formed the government. Here, too, the 'single-largest-party' norm was used by the Governor to invite the BJP, even if ultimately a majority could not be mustered.

Maharashtra, 2019: Leadership Shows Numbers, But Actual Support Fails

Results for elections to the Maharashtra Assembly were declared on October 24, 2019. The BJP emerged as the largest party with 105 seats. The Shiv Sena got 56, the NCP 54, and the Congress 44. The halfway mark for the assembly was 148.

Thus, the BJP and the Shiv Sena, which had a pre-poll alliance, together had 161 seats, while the Congress-NCP combine had 98 in total. But the Shiv Sena failed to deliver the letters of support as the supporting ally at the last minute - reportedly because it was keen on having the Chief Minister's post. 

Following the deadlock, President's rule was imposed on November 12 because no single entity could form a government.

On November 23, 2019, Devendra Fadnavis was unexpectedly sworn in as Chief Minister, with NCP's Ajit Pawar taking oath as his Deputy. The two met the Governor and pledged support of their respective party MLAs. However, the coalition failed to prove a majority on the floor of the House, leading both Fadnavis and Pawar to resign just 80 hours later, on November 26.

Finally, a Congress-NCP-Shiv Sena government was ushered in under the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) umbrella. 

Here, the Governor was convinced that if two parties with a tally of more than the halfway mark could prove a majority in the House, they could be invited to form the government. However, a majority could not be proven ultimately.

All these precedents could give the reader some idea about what could transpire in Tamil Nadu. 

(The author is a renowned psephologist)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author