Opinion | Trump Shanghais The World To Tianjin

The historic success of the 25th Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) over the next weekend in Tianjin in northern China owes itself to six months of ceaseless work by one person. Although US President Donald Trump would not be there, his Tariff War Wolf Diplomacy has alienated much of the world, ensuring that the Summit of the 10-member SCO would be attended by 20 Heads of States and 10 Heads of International Organisations. This would be the highest-ever presence of leaders in 25 years of this body. Although China and President Xi Jinping have a lot of pulling power, the White House push has guaranteed the incarnations of both the Middle Kingdom and the SCO.

A Mammoth Grouping

The SCO comprises 10 members (Belarus, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan), two observer states (Afghanistan and Mongolia) and 14 dialogue partners (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cambodia, Egypt, Kuwait, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Turkiye, and the United Arab Emirates). All taken together, they span nearly half the world's population, a quarter of its landmass and around a quarter of global GDP - rivalling the G7. Moreover, according to a 2022 trade development report, in the first 20 years since its establishment, the total trade of SCO member states increased nearly 100-fold, tripling their share of global trade from 5.4% in 2001 to 17.5% in 2020.

The SCO was born out of Shanghai-Five (comprising China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan), put together in 1996 with the limited mandate of managing post-Soviet Union border and security issues in Central Asia. However, in July 2001, a collective decision was made to convert the Shanghai-Five into the SCO, which evolved over the next two years. The goals of the SCO are:

• to strengthen mutual trust, friendship and good-neighbourliness between the Member States;
• to encourage the effective cooperation between the Member States in such spheres as politics, trade, economy, science and technology, culture, education, energy, transport, tourism, environmental protection, etc;
• to jointly ensure and maintain peace, security and stability in the region; and
• to promote a new democratic, fair and rational international political and economic international order.

Internally, the SCO adheres to the "Shanghai spirit", namely, mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality, consultation, respect for diversity of civilisations and pursuit of common development; and externally, it upholds non-alignment, non-targeting at other countries or regions and the principle of openness.

The Internal Workings

The Organisation has two permanent standing bodies - the Secretariat in Beijing and the Executive Committee of the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) in Tashkent.The supreme decision-making body of the SCO is the Council of Heads of States (CHS), which meets annually to decide upon all the important issues of the Organisation. The Council of Heads of Government (Prime Ministers) (CHG) also meets once a year to discuss the strategy of multilateral cooperation and priority areas within the Organisation, determine fundamental and topical issues in economic and other spheres, and approve the budget of the SCO. In addition, the SCO also has fora for meetings on foreign affairs, national defence, security, economy and trade, culture, health, education, transport, emergency prevention and relief, science and technology, agriculture, the judiciary, tourism, industry, energy, poverty alleviation, sports, etc. The Council of National Coordinators is the SCO coordination mechanism. The SCO has entered into cooperation frameworks with international and regional organisations, such as the UN, WTO, CIS, ASEAN, etc.

On Terrorism And Other Sticky Issues

The SCO has evolved an elaborate defence and security structure, notably the Regional Anti-Terror Structure (RATS), and held their regular deliberations. Apart from terrorism, the SCO agenda has also included common military exercises, but these have taken a back seat since the Russia-Ukraine war. Still, its deliberations and actions since its formation in 2001 have remained somewhat sub-optimal and fluffy mainly due to an imprecise mandate, unwieldy and diverse membership and varying degree of enthusiasm, giving it a dismissive epithet of being just a "talking shop." An Indian wag once called it the "Shanghai Contradictory Organisation". For instance, countering terrorism (defined to include separatism, religious extremism, narcoterrorism and drug smuggling) was the raison d'être for the SCO RATS structure. However, the member states often disagree on which groups to list as adversaries. In June 2025, India refused to endorse a joint statement at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) defence ministers' meeting in Qingdao, China, citing concerns that it did not reflect its position on terrorism. India objected to the omission of the April 22, 2025, Pahalgam attack, in which 26 Indian tourists were killed, even as the statement referenced militant activity in Balochistan. India argued that the statement aligned with Pakistan's narrative and urged the SCO to hold accountable those who use "cross-border terrorism as an instrument of policy". India maintained that such omissions made the statement unacceptable. Several members have reservations about the Chinese and Russian branding of Uyghur groups and the opposition Anti-Corruption Foundation, respectively, as terrorist entities with the RATS.

Also Read | Trump Is Indeed Making A Country Great Again. But It's China

What To Expect In Tianjin

In recent years, China, the SCO's largest economy, has sought to expand the ambit of the bloc's collective action to include economic cooperation, technological innovation and people-to-people exchanges. It wishes to define the SCO's pathways along its model prescript for infrastructure connectivity, green energy, digital economy initiatives, financial cooperation - including discussions for an SCO Development Bank - as well as artificial intelligence, public health, scholarships and cultural exchanges. The Tianjin Summit may see tangible movements in these directions. Beijing may have multiple motives in its drive to reinvigorate the SCO, including better global optics strengthening its hand against the US, tapping into swirling anti-US global sentiments, burnishing its own credentials with the Global South as a liberal, globalising economy, demonstrating to its public that China remains a formidable and popular power, and leveraging the summit to further its complex bilateral agendas with key countries such as Russia, India, Iran and the ASEAN group.

The summit may also allow Beijing to refocus its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) programme more narrowly on the Eurasian region. China, which has territorial and other disputes with many of its neighbours, would like the summit to paper them over. Last but not least, with Trump's Tariff War curbing China's goods and services exports to the US market, it may exploit the Summit to devise ways to find alternate markets. The Tianjin Summit will adopt several documents likely to forcefully call for rule-based multilateralism and rail against the unilateral tendencies without naming the United States. Its political pronouncements on contentious global issues would be tilted towards SCO member states, esp. China, Russia and Iran, without being overtly committal. The event may also see the launch of several of the aforementioned theme projects.

Also Read | Trump Has Miscalculated That India Is A Softer Target Than China

India Is An Active Partner

India joined the SCO in 2017 for geostrategic, security, and economic reasons, primarily to combat terrorism, strengthen its Eurasian economic ties and energy security, and expand its influence and connectivity in Central Asia. The group was seen as a platform for multilateral diplomacy and cooperation on security issues like counter-terrorism and regional stability in the Eurasian region in our extended neighbourhood. India also felt that its presence in the SCO would help manage its interests vis-à-vis China and Pakistan. At the same time, India's presence gave the bloc greater diversity and democratic depth. Since joining, India has actively participated in the SCO's activities. Prime Minister Modi participated in the group's summits in 2018, 2019, and 2022. Summits in 2020, 2021 and 2023 (hosted by India) were held in virtual format due to the pandemic. The External Affairs Minister represented the Prime Minister at the 2024 SCO Summit as the event coincided with the inaugural session of the 18th Lok Sabha. During its SCO Presidency in 2022-23, India hosted more than 140 meetings and events, including 14 Ministerial-level meetings. Hence, it's fair to say that the Indian PM is a regular at the summits, and his participation at Tianjin is no exception.

Why The Current Trip Is Significant

However, PM Modi's presence at the next summit is noteworthy because it involves going to China, a country he has not visited for seven years. Further, his likely bilateral meeting with President Xi Jinping would be only the second since the border clash at Galwan in 2020, which had claimed the lives of 20 Indian soldiers. It also comes on the heels of Trump's August 27 decision to double tariffs on Indian exports to the US to 50%, which India has called unfair and unjust. India has reiterated its pursuit of national economic interests, including the import of Russian crude, if found competitively priced. While many observers have seen the PM's China visit to be a significant act of Indian rebalancing, it is a nuanced manifestation of the diplomacy of "Strategic Autonomy" that India has pursued in recent years. In any case, Indian diplomacy is not known for jerky moves, and a slow turning of the Galwan page has been underway for some time. Much would depend on the outcome of the Modi-Xi Summit. India values optics, but more important would be credible Chinese sensitivity towards our expectations on core issues such as peace at the border, restraining Pakistan, curbing trade deficit, unobstructed supply of needed inputs, etc. The Prime Minister is also expected to meet President Putin and other leaders.

The Tianjin Summit would have been a non-event much like the previous 24 SCO summits. However, the context of global economic turbulence and mistrust unleashed by Trump's tariff wars has lent it extraordinary importance. Many of the participants, such as Russia and Iran, also have their specific grudges against the US and the West. The world would be watching to note whether the Tianjin Summit would emerge as the first collective sign of resistance to the onslaught seeking to reset the balance. The second focus would be on bilaterals and the oft-repeated call for activation of the Russia-India-China triumvirate. Most observers expect both these things to be only partially realised. To a very significant extent, it would be due to New Delhi's traditional penchant against taking extreme positions. That is something the India-bashing, Trumpian motor-mouths ought to be grateful to India for.

(Mahesh Sachdev is a retired Indian Ambassador. He currently heads Eco-Diplomacy and Strategies, a Delhi-based consultancy)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author