Opinion: JDU and Nitish Kumar's Existential Crisis

Nitish Kumar has taken over the reins of the Janata Dal United (JDU) again and will perform the double role of party president and Bihar Chief Minister. Four months ahead of the general elections, Lallan Singh, his predecessor, offered his resignation to focus on contesting in the Lok Sabha elections.

Nitish Kumar was, reports suggest, not very happy with Lallan Singh's growing proximity to rival-turned-friend Lalu Yadav's family. The move suggests Nitish Kumar wants control over the party organization as well, at a time when there are questions about the future of JDU.

Lallan Singh joins the long list of leaders whom Nitish Kumar has sidelined over the years, including George Fernandes, Sharad Yadav, RCP Singh, Upendra Kushwaha, and Jiten Ram Manjhi, for his political gains. In Bihar's political circles, the popular saying goes, "Aisa koi saga nahin, jise Nitish ne thaga nahin".

Nitish Kumar is reportedly upset about being left out of the race for convenor of the INDIA bloc of which his party claims he is the founding member. The poor showing by the Congress in Hindi heartland states in recent polls may also have seeded doubts in his mind about INDIA's prospects in 2024. With opinion polls and analysts predicting 2024 is a done deal for the BJP, Nitish has bigger things to worry about.

The JDU is not a family-controlled regional party, unlike most others like RJD, Samajwadi Party, Trinamool Congress, YSRCP, TDP, BRS, DMK, SHS, and NCP, so no leader has wider acceptance, apart from Nitish Kumar. He hasn't declared a successor like Naveen Patnaik has in Odisha. So the future of JDU after Nitish Kumar is a big question. What is his gameplan for 2024 and 2025?

The JDU mostly consists of leaders from the former Janata Dal, who left when Nitish Kumar and George Fernandes broke away over differences with Lalu Yadav and formed their own outfit, Samata Party, in the 1990s. Over the years, leaders from the RJD, Congress and even the BJP have hopped on to the party for power. The party is bereft of any core ideology, so after Nitish retires, the JDU faces the risk of a split, with leaders switching to either the RJD or the BJP.

Nitish has indicated that the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) could fight under the leadership of Lalu Yadav's son Tejashwi Yadav in state elections due in 2025. However, no one can really read what's on his mind. He may not give up the chair so easily (kissa kursi ka).

Nitish Kumar has two most pressing priorities.

• How he can ensure the JDU retains a maximum of the Lok Sabha seats won by the party in the 2019 elections?
• How he can ensure he remains Chief Minister of Bihar as long as he chooses?

To stay chief minister, he has been flipping between the BJP and RJD as he holds a crucial 15%-16% vote share comprising largely of Kurmis, Koeris/Kushwahas, Economically Backward Classes and Mahadalits, without which neither Lalu nor the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo can form a government in Bihar.

In order to hold on to most of his party's Lok Sabha seats, Nitish needs to make a gharwapsi to the BJP-led NDA. But he does not share a good rapport with Modi-Shah. Besides, his credibility will dwindle further, as the unflattering moniker of "palturam" (flip-flop man) of Indian politics is reinforced. The BJP may not wish to take him back but for their Mission 400 in 2024, the NDA needs allies to sweep Bihar and bolster its numbers..

With the Congress party's poor showing, Nitish may well reconcile to his prime ministerial dreams shattered for good. This means a national presence may not matter to him anymore. And the second priority of how he remains chief minister till 2025 and beyond attains greater importance. He may not trust the BJP for fear of a Shiv Sena-like strike.

The bigger question for Nitish Kumar is - to whom does he want to pass on his legacy - BJP or RJD? The RJD, for the sake of power and to enjoy the Deputy Chief Minister position, has to support Nitish unless it is able to break the JDU, which appears to be difficult at this stage. The RJD, though, is likely to flex its muscles closer to the 2025 Bihar polls, with Lalu Yadav demanding chief ministership for son Tejashwi and pole position for him in the campaign.

Nitish Kumar will be 74 years then and nearer to retirement, by some accounts, though people senior to him, like Naveen Patnaik and Pinayari Vijayan, still remain chief ministers. This could tempt him to bargain for 2025 as his last election with the RJD, be the chief minister face again, hold the top post at least for a brief period if he wins and then hand over the mantle to Tejashwi.

Being the junior partner but still occupying the chief minister's chair makes an alliance with any party tricky for Nitish, with the RJD plus allies just short of a majority by 7 seats. The Mahagatbandhan excluding JDU has 115 MLAs; NDA has 82, JDU has 45 MLAs in a house of 243 where 122 is needed for a simple majority.

The future of Nitish Kumar and the JDU hangs in the balance. Will Nitish remain in INDIA or rejoin the NDA? Will the BJP take back Nitish Kumar to bolster its Mission 400 prospects? Or will the JDU merge with RJD to prevent a split with the condition that he would be chief minister face in 2025?