Prime Minister Narendra Modi's roadshow in Coimbatore today may serve as the de facto launch of the National Democratic Alliance's (NDA) 2026 campaign in Tamil Nadu. But behind the optics lies a complicated electoral terrain that remains largely unchanged even after the NDA's recent victory in Bihar. Tamil Nadu continues to be one of the toughest frontiers for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the alliance arithmetic it depends on is more fragile than ever.
The biggest challenge comes from within the NDA fold. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) - the BJP's principal partner and once the gateway to political relevance in the state - is still navigating deep internal fractures. The expulsions of VK Sasikala, O Panneerselvam and TTV Dhinakaran have left the party divided. For the BJP, the exit of two of these leaders, both from the influential Thevar community and until recently part of theu NDA, means losing what could have helped prevent a split in the AIADMK vote. The recent expulsion of veteran leader and western Tamil Nadu heavyweight KA Sengottaiyan adds another layer of uncertainty in a region that has traditionally been an AIADMK bastion.
Since Jayalalithaa's death, the AIADMK has lost three elections back to back - 2019, 2021 and 2024 - two of them in alliance with the BJP, reinforcing a perception that the national party is electorally isolating. The turbulence is not limited to the AIADMK. The Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), another NDA constituent, is witnessing a serious tussle between founder Dr S Ramadoss and his son Dr Anbumani Ramadoss, raising the possibility of a split or competing factions contesting against each other. The Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), once an ally, has yet to clearly decide its direction.
Adding to the unpredictability is actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), which will debut in 2026. Vijay has repeatedly described the BJP as his ideological opponent, ruling out any direct or indirect alliance. By extension, this rejects any AIADMK-BJP-TVK convergence. Some former NDA partners may explore an understanding with Vijay, who has suggested a willingness to share power - an attractive proposition for smaller parties.
Coimbatore, where Modi is showcasing the BJP's strength today, is one of the few pockets where the party has a rooted presence. Vanathi Srinivasan's 2021 win over Kamal Haasan came here, but, crucially, with the AIADMK alliance.
The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), meanwhile, enters this phase from a position of continuity. Its alliance has remained intact through three consecutive election victories. The government is relying on its flagship welfare schemes - monthly Rs 1,000 assistance for women, free bus travel, and financial support for government-school college students - while projecting its faster double-digit economic growth. Politically, the DMK continues to target the BJP at the Centre on issues central to Tamil Nadu's identity and rights, such as alleged financial discrimination, denial of NEET exemption, Hindi imposition, and delays over the Keeladi archaeological report. These themes have resonance in a state known for its strong linguistic and cultural positions.
In this backdrop, Modi's Coimbatore roadshow is significant not just for energising the cadre but for signalling whether the BJP is willing to recalibrate its approach in a state that has remained electorally elusive. Tamil Nadu's political grammar has historically resisted national narratives. Whether Modi adjusts his tone and outreach to match the state's sensibilities will determine whether today's spectacle will become the starting point of genuine momentum - or if it will remains a symbolic show of strength in a still-unfavourable terrain.'
(The author leads NDTV's Chennai Bureau)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
