Maharashtra's political landscape is witnessing unprecedented realignments as the state prepares for municipal corporation elections across 29 bodies, a poll that comes four years behind schedule.
The most significant of these changes involves the coming together of estranged Thackeray cousins and tentative steps toward reconciliation between the rival Pawar factions.
The Thackeray Reunion
In a development that few saw coming, Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) has broken away from the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance to join hands with cousin Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena for the elections to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC).
This partnership represents more than mere electoral convenience; it is a strategic attempt by both cousins to reclaim the legacy of the legendary Balasaheb Thackeray, whose towering personality once dominated Maharashtra politics.
The alliance is built on carefully calculated electoral arithmetic. Together, the Thackerays are wooing the Marathi Manoos, who constitute approximately 40% of Mumbai's population, while also banking on support from the Muslim community, which makes up about 20%.
The reasoning behind this strategy is straightforward: the united Thackeray front believes it is better positioned to defeat the Bharatiya Janata Party than the Congress, hence leaving no option for the Muslim community but to back them.
The seat-sharing arrangement reflects the relative strengths of the partners. Shiv Sena (UBT) will contest 165 seats, MNS will field candidates in 52 constituencies, while the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar faction) will contest just 10 seats as part of this new coalition.
At a joint press conference announcing the tie-up, the Thackeray brothers invoked a potent warning to the Marathi Manoos: "batenge to katenge" - divided we fall, united we stand, taking cue from the BJP's slogan in the 2024 state elections.
High Stakes For Uddhav's Shiv Sena
For Uddhav Thackeray, these municipal elections represent nothing short of an existential battle. Shiv Sena held sway over the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation for nearly three decades, making it not just a political bastion but a symbol of the party's power and reach.
The 2022 split that saw Eknath Shinde walk away with a majority of MLAs has left Uddhav's faction at serious risk of losing this crucial stronghold. The battle between the two Shiv Sena factions has produced mixed results so far.
In what can be termed Round One, the Lok Sabha elections, Uddhav's faction emerged victorious. However, Round Two - the Vidhan Sabha polls - went to Eknath Shinde's faction. These municipal corporation elections, particularly in Mumbai, represent the decisive Round Three that could determine which faction truly inherits Balasaheb's mantle.
Uddhav has reasons for optimism. Of the 20 seats his party won in the 2024 Vidhan Sabha polls, half came from the Mumbai region corresponding to the BMC. While the party's overall vote share across Maharashtra stood at just 10%, in the Mumbai region it was an impressive 24%. This concentrated support base could prove crucial in municipal elections where local factors often outweigh state-level considerations.
The MNS, despite its smaller footprint, also has a significant presence in Mumbai. While it recorded less than 2% vote share statewide in the 2024 state elections, it managed 7% in the Mumbai zone, suggesting that Raj Thackeray's appeal, though diminished, remains relevant in the city where his party was born.
In direct contests between the two Shiv Sena factions, the scoreline has been close. Of 11 such fights, Uddhav's party won six while Shinde's faction won five, indicating that the battle for Balasaheb's legacy remains evenly poised.
An Ascendia Strategies survey adds another dimension to this contest, revealing that 45% of 'Marathi Manoos' in Mumbai believe Shiv Sena (UBT) is the real Sena - a significant psychological advantage in a battle fought as much over legitimacy as over votes.
Formidable Challenges Ahead
Despite these encouraging signs, the Thackeray brothers face severe challenges that could undermine their alliance. Raj Thackeray's political graph has been declining consistently across Maharashtra, with many viewing him as an opportunist who has changed sides multiple times over the past decade. This perception of unreliability could alienate voters who value political consistency.
Uddhav faces his own image problems. Many perceive him as lacking the charisma and aggression that characterised his father, Balasaheb. More damagingly, his alliance with the Congress party is seen by some as a compromise with Hindutva ideology for the sake of power - a charge that resonates in a party built on Hindu nationalism.
The BJP-Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) alliance has made significant inroads among the Marathi Manoos, with the community's vote now split 44-42%, according to an Ascendia Strategies survey. The Muslim vote, which Uddhav's party enjoyed due to its alliance with Congress in state elections, may not automatically transfer to the Thackerays now that the alliance has been broken.
The Muslim community is in a quandary, wondering whether it should support the Congress or SP/AIMIM in pockets, or back the Thackerays, who appear to be the main challenger to the BJP. The risk of Thackerays making a gharwapsi to a BJP-led alliance in the future is also playing on their minds.
Young voters, who dominate largely urban constituencies, tend to be sceptical of dynasty politics and have developed good rapport with leaders like Devendra Fadnavis, who project a more modern, development-oriented image.
The Pawar Reconciliation
While the Thackerays attempt reunion, the rival Pawar factions are taking tentative steps toward rapprochement. The NCP (Ajit Pawar faction) and NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar faction) have joined hands to contest the Pune Municipal Corporation and Pimpri-Chinchwad Municipal Corporation together, signalling that blood ties may prove thicker than political differences. In a recent interview, Ajit Pawar even said that the workers of the two factions wanted to unite and that all tensions within the Pawar family had been resolved. The two NCP factions are apparently coming together for the Pimpri-Chinchwad municipal corporation polls at the demand of party workers.
These developments have only amplified the speculation about broader realignments in Maharashtra. Rumours have circulated for some time about the senior Pawar faction joining the National Democratic Alliance, with Ajit Pawar handling Maharashtra politics and Supriya Sule being given a national role.
Sharad Pawar, in the final phase of his storied political career, may wish to secure his daughter Supriya's future, particularly since she is not seen as having the mass appeal of Ajit Pawar. Initial talks reportedly explored both factions fighting under the same symbol, but the Sharad Pawar faction refused, indicating that complete reconciliation remains some distance away.
Nevertheless, the joining of hands serves mutual interests, primarily the need to reclaim ground lost in Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad, parts of Western Maharashtra that were once NCP strongholds.
The BJP wrested control of both corporations in 2017, pushing the NCP to second position. Even in the recent Vidhan Sabha polls, the BJP won maximum seats in these two districts, demonstrating that the NCP's decline in this region has been sustained and significant. The Pawar alliance represents an attempt to reverse this trend.
Strategic considerations also play a role. The NCP factions may be preparing for a political future without the BJP. There is speculation that the BJP may contest the 2029 elections alone, which could leave Ajit Pawar's faction in the lurch. By maintaining channels of communication with his uncle's faction, Ajit Pawar may be hedging his bets against such an eventuality.
These municipal elections will, therefore, serve as a crucial test not just of organisational strength but of political strategies. For the Thackerays, it is about survival and legacy. For the Pawars, it is about rebuilding lost ground and securing future options. The outcomes will shape Maharashtra politics for years to come.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
