Opinion | Congress' Biggest Challenge For Kerala? Not Letting It Go Down The Karnataka Way

The irony is not lost on anyone. Sachin Pilot is in Thiruvananthapuram as the Congress party's senior observer to aid in the election - or selection - of the next Chief Minister of Kerala. Pilot had revolted against the leadership of Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot in 2020, unhappy that he was the Deputy Chief Minister without any real powers. Pilot would be fully aware of what unfulfilled aspirations could do to the health of the Congress party and knows he will have to navigate the demands of the different groups within the Congress in Kerala.

Posters have appeared in both Thiruvananthapuram and New Delhi, pushing the candidature of Congress organisational secretary KC Venugopal for the top job. Competition back home is tough. There is Leader of Opposition VD Satheesan, who has led this campaign from the front. Former Home Minister Ramesh Chennithala missed his opportunity in 2021, when the UDF lost, but is ahead in seniority, with Satheesan calling himself a follower of Chennithala.

The DK-Sidda Tussle

The Congress has to ensure this does not end up becoming another Rajasthan or Karnataka-like leadership tussle. In neighbouring Karnataka, the Congress finds itself split down the middle. Every few days, MLAs supporting Chief Minister Siddaramaiah or his Deputy DK Shivakumar air-dash to Delhi to press their case with the High Command. This is because the Shivakumar camp believes he was promised the top job after Siddaramaiah completed 30 months in office in the winter of 2025. This has made the Congress regime in Karnataka a picture of trust deficit. 

Kerala could easily go the Karnataka way because Congress politics in God's own country has revolved around factions since the late 1970s. A political history lesson will help. Posts in the Congress in Kerala have traditionally been given based on whether a leader owes his allegiance to the Indira group or the Antony group. When the Congress split in 1978, K Karunakaran sided with Indira Gandhi and his faction was called the 'I' group. Another section, led by AK Antony, left the party disillusioned with Indira Gandhi's style of politics, and this faction was called the 'A' group. It subsequently returned to the parent Congress in 1982, but the factions never quite merged in spirit. 

The 'A' vs 'I' Dynamic In Kerala

As a matter of rule, political goodies have always been distributed between the two factions. So if the KPCC president was from the 'I' group, the Chief Minister or the Leader of Opposition (LoP) post would go to the 'A' group, and vice versa. For example, when Oommen Chandy from the 'A' group was Chief Minister, Chennithala from the 'I' group was the No. 2 in the Cabinet as Home Minister. In fact, this 50:50 or quota culture extends to every single appointment, right down to the block committee level. This ensured parity between the two groups and also that no single leader became too powerful. But this also meant that the party was constantly at war with itself.

The saving grace, however, is that even while factional loyalties were the hallmark of the Kerala Congress, the two groups never tried to annihilate each other. They out-negotiated each other, based on the spirit of mutually assured survival. The same spirit of live and let live will have to dictate the equations now to settle the tussle for the Chief Minister's chair. 

The 'I' vs 'A' tussle is not the bone of contention this time, as all the claimants are deemed to be part of the 'I' faction, though all of them would have to woo MLAs of the 'A' faction to strengthen their case. 

The CM Race 

So, how does the Congress resolve the leadership question given the number of claimants? On paper, Satheesan has the best credentials for the job as the charismatic leader is seen to have led the party on the ground, much like YS Rajasekhara Reddy did in united Andhra Pradesh in 2004. But then Chennithala, being senior to him, would be reluctant to be a minister in a Satheesan Cabinet. 

Then there is a section within the Congress in the national capital that would like to see the back of Venugopal and sees in this victory a chance to ease him out. Also, a majority of the 63 Congress candidates who have been elected are known to owe their allegiance to Venugopal. Making Venugopal the Chief Minister would also seem the logical step, given the inability to decide between Satheesan and Chennithala. A section within the Congress also thinks that Venugopal's closeness to Rahul Gandhi and his understanding of national politics would be a plus and would ensure that the UDF government is not a rickety arrangement.

But there are roadblocks. For one, keeping the alliance architecture in mind, an NOC ('No Objection Certificate') of sorts will have to be taken from the IUML, which, with its 22 seats, is the second largest party in the UDF. Right now, the IUML seems to be tilting in Satheesan's favour. 

Troubles For Venugopal

Second, K Sudhakaran, former Pradesh Congress Committee (PCC) chief and at present the Congress MP from Kannur, was keen to contest the assembly elections. He was not allowed to, declaring that no MP should be in the fray. How can the rule then be relaxed for Venugopal, who is the Lok Sabha MP from Alappuzha? This will also send the message across that none of the 63 legislators elected on the Congress ticket is good enough to be Chief Minister. Certainly not a good look for a party that is coming to power after a decade in the state. At the same time, Venugopal as 'Super Chief Minister', armed with the remote control, would be a recipe for disaster.

Third, Venugopal's decision to contest the Lok Sabha election in 2024 meant he had to give up his Rajya Sabha seat in Rajasthan, and that seat was eventually won by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Now, if he is to be made the Chief Minister, he would have to make an elected MLA resign, and two by-elections would have to be held - one to the state assembly and one for the Alappuzha parliamentary seat.

While a rotational system has not been tried in Kerala, it is important that the Chief Minister - whoever is chosen - is only the first among equals. The moment a Chief Minister uses the police or vigilance to cut a rival Cabinet colleague to size, the Congress could implode. 

Finally, keeping in mind the rotational nature of electoral preference of the Kerala voter, any decision will also have to factor in the generational shift in the Communist Party of India (Marxist's) leadership in Kerala in a post-Pinarayi Vijayan phase. 

(The author is a senior journalist)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author