Soon after Operation Epic Fury began, the Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran, Saeed Khatibzade, who was visiting India to participate in the Raisina Dialogue, announced that Iran and the Gulf states had been engaged in back-channel talks when the joint Israel-US attacks on Iran began. The messaging was clear. The assaults were, in part, to sabotage these talks; they began also when Iran had been negotiating with the US over its nuclear programme through Omani mediation.
For decades after the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran - which, by the way, the Arabs have always called an "Iranian revolution", dismissing claims of it being "Islamic" - the security architecture of the Gulf countries has been developed as a counter to Iran and to pre-empt its export of the 'revolution' to their lands. The primary fear has been the toppling of the monarchies in these countries. Saudi Arabia, for instance, had admitted that it had invested millions in exporting Wahhabism across the world, primarily as a counter to the Shiite political Islam that Iran was exporting.
The Birth Of The Carter Doctrine
Intra-Gulf relations were transferred, as were the relations between the Gulf countries and the US. America's reliance on Iran and Saudi Arabia, the two largest energy powerhouses in the region, was replaced by the Carter Doctrine. In 1980, the then US President, Jimmy Carter, unveiled it in his State of the Union address, which declared that the US would use military force to defend its interests in the Persian Gulf.
In 1981, the Gulf monarchies joined forces to form the Gulf Cooperation Council. Since then, the security architecture of the region has been anchored in the Carter Doctrine, which made the US the net security provider in the region.
While the Shiite threat remained, with Iran forming its axis of resistance through the creation of proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, Houthis in Yemen, and, much later, the Hashed al Shabi, or armed Shiite militias in Iraq, yet another threat arose over the last decade.
The Arab Spring, which brought back political Islam on the Arab map and led to the rise of Sunni militants such as ISIS - which even launched attacks on facilities such as Saudi Aramco - shook the GCC. The perceived US disinterest in the region following its pivot to Asia, together with its endorsement of the Arab Spring, led to Arab capitals rethinking their security doctrine.
The Abraham Accords
Israel capitalised fully on this window of opportunity that had opened up against common goals. It had long been trying to cultivate ties with the Arab and Muslim world. However, while it had been successful in the Muslim world, it could establish ties with only two Arab countries - Egypt and Jordan.
Intense back-channel talks and lobbying by the first Trump Administration resulted in the path-breaking Abraham Accords in 2020, where a range of Arab countries, beginning with GCC heavyweight UAE, then Bahrain, and then Morocco, normalised ties and established diplomatic relations with Israel. While Saudi Arabia, as Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, was more circumspect, it did engage in unofficial relations with Israel. The common threat that underpinned these Accords was Iran.
Therefore, a normalisation of the ties between GCC states and Iran would hardly have been looked upon benignly by Israel, or, for that matter, even by the US under a second Trump administration.
Questioning It All Now
In spite of their security arrangements with the US, the GCC countries have, during the current crisis, come to terms with the fact that this arrangement has been counterproductive for them. For one, Iran has retaliated by targeting not just Israel but also US bases in the Gulf as well as civilian infrastructure, where US military personnel have a presence with their drones and missiles.
As Israel bombed Iran's oil storage refineries and sites, Iran struck energy infrastructures in the GCC, including Shaybah oilfields in Saudi Arabia and its most important refinery, Ras Tanura, and Qatar Energy's facilities at Ras Laffan, which made the world's largest LNG producer halt production entirely.
GCC stocks have plummeted, trade and tourism have come to a grinding halt, and the image of the region as an oasis for global business and money now lies tainted. Worldwide, oil prices have spiked to more than $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022.
On the other hand, the GCC has also come to face the bitter truth that the US prioritised Israel's security over the Gulf's safety. As Israel's air defence system was overwhelmed with Iran's barrage of drones and missiles, the US began moving its air defence systems from the GCC to Israel.
'Step-Fatherly' Treatment For Middle East?
Ironically, while Israel is not an immediate neighbour of Iran, most GCC states are. They have been in the line of fire and had anticipated this. In spite of this, they were not taken into confidence or informed in advance of the joint Israel-US assault on Iran, leaving them susceptible to the very threat they had long anticipated.
Moreover, while Israel received mostly military aid and grants, the GCC pays for its security arrangements with the US but still doesn't have many of the US technologies that Israel has been given access to. Transactions run into billions of dollars; just a year ago, President Trump had agreed to arms sales of $142 billion dollars to Saudi Arabia.
'We Constantly Informed You'
Inevitably, the pushback has begun. The GCC states have publicly announced that they would not allow their territories to be used for launching attacks. On Iran, they also know that part of its military doctrine is guided by the fact that US bases in the region, in the case of any attacks on Iran, become legitimate targets.
The UAE's ambassador to the UN stated, plainly, "We have constantly informed [you] that our territories would not be used for any attacks against Iran. Yet, we are being targeted, frankly, in a very unwarranted manner."
Similarly, influential UAE billionaire Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor has stated, "The truth is that hasty American decisions are what embroiled the region in a war whose peoples were not party to its decision-making, and its local allies were not consulted before it was launched."
Oman's Foreign Minister, Badr Al Busaidi, has called for restraint, a ceasefire, and an urgent return to diplomacy as the US-Israeli war on Iran drags on with no end in sight. "The action taken by Israel and the US against Iran is both immoral and illegal," wrote Mr Al Busaidi on X. "But the retaliation by Iran against its neighbours is also deeply regrettable and unacceptable," he added.
Speaking on his nation's television, Kuwaiti analyst Masaed Al-Mannan said that the Arab countries are the ones protecting America, not the other way around.
This statement has received widespread Arab support.
Most importantly, former Saudi intelligence chief Prince Turki al-Faisal called the crisis "Netanyahu's war" that the Israeli Prime Minister pushed President Trump to launch, all to create a distraction from his actions in Gaza, the West Bank, and even inside Israel.
US Continues With Its Threats
Against this background, the words of Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, one of the most ardent supporters of the war, have been rejected across the GCC. Graham wrote on X: "It is my understanding the Kingdom refuses to use their capable military as part of an effort to end the barbaric and terrorist Iranian regime who has terrorized the region and unalived 7 Americans. Should America do a defense agreement with a country like the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia that is unwilling to join a fight of mutual interest? [sic]" He added: "Hopefully this changes soon. If not, consequences will follow."
In a way, Graham's post betrays both the US's desperation and coercive tactics. But it also has a clue for what Gulf states can do. While many observers had been able to predict it, the US couldn't somehow foresee the depth and range of Iran's retaliation. In spite of the decimation of Iran's top leadership, no organic regime change has come about. Instead, a new Supreme Leader, Mujtaba Khamenei, the son of slain Ali Khamenei, has been installed.
Can The GCC Unite?
The war has entered its second week, Iran burns, but it continues to retaliate. Instead, reports now find the US being culpable for civilian massacres, such as the strike on the girls' school, which claimed the lives of over a hundred schoolgirls and their teachers. That is now widely believed to be a "double tap" strike, an attack in which a strike is followed by a deliberately timed second assault several minutes later, aiming to inflict maximum casualties.
On the other hand, the US itself has seen loss of personnel, as has Israel, even if far less in numbers than what Iran has suffered. The Pentagon just announced that 140 American personnel have sustained injuries in the current conflict.
Let down by its ally and security provider and targeted by Iran, the Gulf states can change the trajectory of the war if they, in unison, resolutely refuse to allow their territories and airspace to be used for launching attacks on Iran. This, in fact, is a precondition that Iran has set for any kind of negotiations to begin. Such a step would spare the Gulf Iranian wrath, and the latter may even allow their energy trade to resume through the Strait of Hormuz, in turn constraining Israel and the US.
Will the GCC assert itself and act? That's the question it really needs to ask itself.
(The author is a senior journalist)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
