Opinion | If Mamata Banerjee Wins Again, It Might Be Only Because Of One Particular Group

The lead author has been asserting for more than a decade that while credible polling agencies with transparent methodologies are more or less certain to get nearly accurate vote shares in an exit poll, it is a mug's game to expect even the best of them to get the right forecast for the number of seats. That point has been proven time and again, particularly with the series of elections beginning with the Lok Sabha elections of 2024. Keeping that in mind, CVoter has decided to stick to vote shares and leave seat projections to those brave enough to do it.

Two Parallel Narratives

Yet, when you have hundreds of field personnel on the ground for an extended period of time backed by daily tracker surveys, you do get a sense of what might possibly happen. In the case of West Bengal, one has seen two parallel narratives. The first narrative is that there is so much anti-incumbency and so much anger against the lower rung leadership of the TMC that a regime change is inevitable in this assembly election. What does it mean in terms of actual data? In the 2021 assembly elections, the TMC had a near 10% vote share advantage over the BJP. For the first narrative to come true, there has to be a 5% swing in vote share.

This is where the second parallel narrative comes into play. It does not completely contradict the first narrative, but is more nuanced. In this narrative, there is acceptance that there is widespread resentment and anger against the lower-rung leadership of the Trinamool. At the same time, there is an assertion that Mamata Banerjee remains the tallest and the most popular leader in the state. More importantly, the series of welfare schemes and doles, particularly centred around women, will help the Trinamool cross the finishing line. Female voters will naturally play a critical role in this. Even independent observers and analysts who think that the TMC has governed very poorly seem to think that the Bengali female has once again come to the rescue of Mamata.

Promises vs Delivery

There are two reasons for this nuanced analysis. The first is the recent history of assembly elections since the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where all exit polls turned out to be inaccurate. Elections have been conducted since then in Haryana, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Delhi and Bihar. In all these assembly elections, the incumbent has made promises in concrete terms about women-centric welfare schemes and doles. Opposition parties have made even more extravagant promises. But barring Delhi, female voters have found the comparatively more modest dole promises by incumbents to be more credible.

Even in Delhi, one must remember that Arvind Kejriwal could not actually deliver the "first instalment" to the accounts of female voters. So, there was no 'bird in the hand' to start with. Actually, both birds were in the bush, as far as the election promises of AAP and the BJP were concerned. Even then, Kejriwal actually polled more votes than the BJP among female voters. However, what eventually became a net negative for him was the fact that in Delhi, there was no turnout differential as far as male/female voters were concerned, and Delhi electoral rolls were heavily male-skewed (53:47) in ratio. In all other states, this ratio became a minimum of 50:50 due to the record-breaking high turnouts of female voters, a trend that, unfortunately for Kejriwal, did not replicate in Delhi. Not surprisingly, except AAP in Delhi, incumbents have won all assembly elections.

The fascinating question is: will West Bengal witness a repeat of recent assembly elections where female voters have decided to stick with the known "devil" rather than go for a tectonic regime change?

The Bengal Polling Percentage

To understand this better, let's look at the polling percentages in West Bengal. In the first round, where 152 seats were up for contest, the poll percentage was 93.19%. There was no eye-catching gender difference, with the female polling percentage being just about 2% higher than males. In the second, more crucial round on April 29, where the 142 seats up for grabs have long been a TMC citadel, the poll percentage dropped a little to 91.66%. The female poll percentage was once again just about 2% higher than male. There is nothing much to conclude from this set of data.

But this is where the authors rely on months-long pre-poll surveys conducted by CVoter on a weekly and daily basis to gauge voting intentions, right up to the first week of April 2026. Anyone familiar with the recent political and electoral history of West Bengal knows that while the BJP has done extremely well in north Bengal, it has so far failed to breach the Mamata citadel of south Bengal. This is particularly true for the five Presidency districts - Kolkata, Howrah, 24 North Parganas, 24 South Parganas and Nadia - that send 108 members to the assembly. In 2021, the TMC won 97 of these 108 seats. Any chance that the BJP has of dethroning Mamata will materialise only if it breaches this citadel.

Right up to the first week of April, CVoter tracker surveys showed two clear trends. In north Bengal, neither party had a decisive edge when it came to the female voter. However, in south Bengal, our surveys indicated that the TMC enjoys a near 4% female vote share advantage over the BJP. In deeply polarised and keenly contested bilateral contests, even a 4% advantage among female voters could prove to be the most critical factor.

Exit polls have made various kinds of seat projections for the BJP and TMC in West Bengal. As stated right at the beginning, CVoter is not doing it. However, the authors still feel that it could be advantageous for the TMC. If Mamata Banerjee manages to become chief minister for the fourth consecutive time, the only reason would be her south Bengal female voters, who would have saved the day for her. But that is a big 'If', and we would get answers only after the results are out.

(Yashwant Deshmukh is the Founder & Editor-in-Chief of CVoter Foundation, and Sutanu Guru is Executive Director)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author