"Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar meeting each other over a breakfast had as much media attention as a Putin-Zelensky meeting," remarked a senior journalist as he saw the news coverage unfold.
Was, and is, the Congress Karnataka power tussle settled? Is there clarity on whether Siddaramaiah will complete a five-year term or will he give in and allow DK Shivakumar to take charge in the next few months? The answer to both those questions is a no.
The highly publicised idli, dosa meeting of the Chief Minister and the Deputy CM of Karnataka, was a categorical effort to set the optics of a Congress in chaos right. They both met because the high command instructed them to talk to each other and send out a message of unity, especially as the BJP threatens to move a no confidence motion in the Karnataka assembly session starting December 8.
Now that the optics has been sent with Idli and Vada, the next task for the high command will happen over Karnataka's traditional Ragi Mudde or Delhi's famous Chole Kulche! Both leaders have left it to the high command to settle the issue.
So, what next? It's clear that Siddaramaiah has to yield to a power transition, but to who and when is the question. It's also clear that DK Shivakumar has categorically refused to back down. But it's also true that he cannot create a rude and abrupt split in the party and has to ensure a smooth take over, he will have to wait - but is not willing to wait for long.
What was agreed between the two leaders in 2023 remains a hazy mystery. But it's clear now that something was agreed to. It's now the job of the high command - Rahul Gandhi - to enforce a transition, if not smooth functioning of the government.
According to discussions gaining traction among Congress insiders, the emerging understanding includes four major elements. A clear transition of power to DKS before 2027, Siddaramaiah would hand over the chief ministership to DKS, perhaps soon after the State budget in February/March 2026, two years before the 2028 Assembly elections. This way, he would have hit the record for the longest serving CM of the state - a record that's now currently held by the late and legendary Congress leader Devraj Ars.
Shivakumar will continue as the only Deputy Chief Minister until then and as State Congress president. No Cabinet reshuffle or changes in the middle. And that Siddaramaiah's loyalists get accommodated under DKS. Most importantly, Siddaramaiah gives his backing for a smooth transition.
Why DKS may agree to wait a little longer?
Despite his ambitions, DKS is seen as pragmatic about his current political arithmetic. He lacks the numbers to unseat Siddaramaiah today without destabilising the government. A sudden attempt to topple the CM could fracture the party and alienate key communities. Most importantly, he would lose his most powerful calling card - the staunch party loyalist who will keep it together. A messy attempt to take over would leave both Siddaramaiah and him in a precarious political situation. He simply has to do this with Siddaramaiah on board.
For Siddaramaiah, the deal also comes with clear incentives. He has repeatedly signalled that he will retire by 2028 , though politicians rarely retire and power rarely is abandoned. However, he has to offer a transition at some point and he is aware of that.
A smooth transition helps him solidify his legacy as a leader who kept the party united. Ensuring an orderly handover may allow him to exit as the tallest Congress leader in Karnataka, preserving his political stature and influence. Most importantly, he can cement the position of his loyalists and perhaps his own political successor or successors.
However, a day is a long time in politics, and a few months could be an era! So, will DKS fully trust Siddaramaiah to honour a timeline? Will the party make the agreement public or keep it informal? A decision has to be taken now and adhered to.
There are lot of caste sensitivities the Congress needs to keep in mind and let's not forget there are 137 Congress MLAs who may largely side with the high command, but cannot be taken for granted. What next in Karnataka will brew over many more lunches, dinners and breakfast meetings between Bengaluru and New Delhi. This story is far from over!
(The author is Executive Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
