Away from politics, floods, rain-related tragedies and the Trump tariffs, there is optimism in the air. With GST rationalized, inflation in control, the upcoming festival season promises good times. And why not? India won the cricket match against rival Pakistan in the ongoing Asia Cup. At least, on the cricket field, the world witnessed a decisive victory. No questions can be asked.
Even as global trade continues to adjust to the Trump administration's tariffs and protectionist policies, India's domestic economic indicators tell a more hopeful story. That stability provides the foundation for consumers to enjoy the festival season without anxiety about the future.
Bonanza for Bihar
In an election bonanza for Bihar, on September 15, Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated development projects worth Rs 40,000 crore for the state - covering railways, airports, electricity, and water, fulfilling the aspirations of Seemanchal.
The new airport in Purnea and the new Vande Bharat and Amrit Bharat trains are expected to improve connectivity immensely, especially during the festival season, when people struggle for train seats and travel long circuitous routes to their native places.
It was also a big moment for over 40,000 beneficiaries of permanent housing under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana. Entering a permanent home before Dhanteras, Diwali, and Chhath Puja is a matter of great fortune, the Prime Minister told a mammoth crowd.
Splurge on
The new GST regime will be operational from September 22. It also coincides with the end of the inauspicious period, with Mahalaya Amavasya on September 21. People mostly avoid making purchases during this period. The spurt in consumer spending would begin after this.
A research report from Crisil points out that the revenues of India Inc are likely to rise by 6-7% this fiscal due to the reduction in GST rates. "The new GST rates will lower the prices of products in key sectors, such as FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods), consumer durables and automobiles," the note said.
The simplified GST structure is also expected to multiply the effect of e-commerce, which is already a major driver of sales during the festive season. It is also estimated that certain sectors impacted by the US tariffs, such as readymade garments, will get a major push to offset some of the losses.
Earlier in the year, the changes made to the income-tax slabs augmented household budgets to check the consumption slowdown.
The inflation rates too have seen decline in the last nine months. The latest (August 2025) retail inflation is at 2.1%, just marginally within the RBI's comfort band of 2%-6%, with no real macroeconomic risk.
Love-less sweets
Indians love to gorge on sweets, especially during festivals. The day the Purnea airport was inaugurated, Pappu Yadav, the local MP (independent) known to be close to Congress Party, was seen distributing sweet rice kheer.
A recent report from the ISMA (Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association) shows that institutional sugar consumption in India-i.e. sugar used in processed foods like confectionery, biscuits, non-alcoholic beverages, bakery products etc-has increased from about 50-55% in 2018-19 to 60-65% in 2023-24 of total sugar consumption.
This suggests that more of our sugar isn't being sprinkled on tea or made into jaggery, but baked, emulsified, and hidden in foods we eat daily.
Though affluent and calorie-conscious households are opting for low-sugar foods, the lower middle-class households - with their rising incomes - are leaning towards sugar-rich packaged consumption. This is not good news for the country, which has a high number of diabetes cases.
A 2023 study by Lancet estimates that 101 million people in India - 11.4% of the country's population - are living with diabetes.
A survey commissioned by the Union Health Ministry also found that 136 million people - or 15.3% of the population - could be living with pre-diabetes.
In recent years, though there has been a growing mindfulness around sugar consumption, especially during the festival weeks, many still choose to ignore the precautions and binge on sweets and similar processed products.
The cure for this could be in community-level awareness about healthier alternatives, organic treats, and homemade delicacies.
Whether it's the ease of travelling to the villages and towns, lighting lamps in new homes, buying new clothes, or a sweet indulgence, India's festive spirit is remarkably robust.
(The author is Contributing Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
