Opinion | Dear Delhi Pollsters, Please Stop Writing Nitish Kumar Off Every Election

For a leader who has spent decades in power, Nitish Kumar remains a figure beyond calculations. Ahead of nearly every election, commentators predict his fall. They call him indecisive, fatigued, past his peak, or politically overextended. And yet, Bihar has repeatedly turned to him to anchor the state's politics for the last several elections. The 2025 election results have reinforced this pattern with striking clarity: Nitish Kumar remains Bihar's ultimate X-factor, and it's time we stop writing him off so easily. 

A Vote Share That Makes Him Indispensable

What keeps Nitish Kumar at the heart of Bihar politics is plain numbers. Across cycles, he has consistently commanded a formidable 15-20% vote share on his own. In a fragmented state where no single party dominates across caste and regional divides, this is a mammoth share. It is why from 2005 to 2010, 2015, 2020, and the 2024 Lok Sabha election, political formations that have allied with him have usually ended up winning.

Nitish retains credibility among a broad social coalition: OBCs, EBCs, Mahadalits, non-Yadav OBCs, and a steady section of Muslim voters. He is one of the few leaders in Bihar capable of pulling support from communities with competing political interests. 

A Centre of Gravity for Muslim Voters

One of the most understated aspects of Nitish's politics is the quiet trust he enjoys among Muslims. Under him, the JD(U) has positioned itself as a centrist, moderate counterweight to majoritarian politics. His presence keeps coalition politics balanced, ensuring that Bihar does not tilt ideologically like many other states have done. This brings him a sizable chunk of the Muslim vote. 

Why Women Remain His Strongest Pillar

However, if there is a single constituency that has transformed Nitish Kumar's political fortunes, it is women - arguably the most influential electoral bloc in Bihar today. This support is not sentimental; it is the direct result of policies that touched everyday lives. For instance, the Mukhyamantri Balika Cycle Yojana launched by his government encouraged girls' schooling. Combined with free uniforms and scholarships, it created enormous goodwill for his government among women.

Then there was the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana, which put ₹10,000 directly into the accounts of over a crore women. Add to that the long-running network of self-help groups under the Jivika Didi programme, where lakhs of women accessed credit, savings, and income-generating support. 

The alcohol prohibition undertaken by his government also yielded clear political dividends for Nitish Kumar, especially among rural women. Less domestic violence, more savings in the household, and a quieter, more stable family environment made women support his government. For many, this positioned Nitish as a leader willing to take politically costly decisions in their favour.

These interventions collectively created perhaps the most dependable female vote bank in Indian politics. 

The evidence is visible in turnout: in seats where women outvoted men, Nitish-led alliances historically performed significantly better. For instance, in 2020, women outvoted men in 119 out of 243 seats. The NDA ended up winning a whopping 72 of these seats - a 60% strike rate. In contrast, in seats where men voted more than women, the NDA's strike rate fell to a mere 40%.

Nitish Kumar's comeback ability is also something to consider. Here are two examples:

• In 2020, despite an aggressive sabotage campaign led by the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) - fielding candidates against the JD(U) in targeted seats - the JD(U) still managed to win 43 seats, enough for the NDA to form a government.

• In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the JD(U) won 12 of a total of 16 seats, outperforming the BJP, a proof that his ground network remains sharp and underestimated.
   

The JD(U)'s current tally of more than 80 seats reaffirms what analysts often forget: Nitish's electoral machine, and the social coalitions it rests on, do not wither simply because the political conversation grows impatient with him. Being an X-factor, after all, is far, far bigger than being simply the flavour of the day. It's time we stopped writing Nitish Kumar off. 

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author