Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives in India tomorrow for a two-day summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This is his first visit to India since 2021, and it is on account of the 23rd bilateral annual summit. Last year, Modi had travelled to Moscow in July for the 22nd summit.
The meeting is taking place at a particularly fraught conjuncture for both leaders. Putin is facing US pressure to end the war against Ukraine, while Modi has had perhaps his most challenging year in foreign policy terms - India has fought a short war with Pakistan, and relations with the US have nose-dived. In addition, India is under the Damocles Sword of the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 as well as pressure to reduce, if not end, its lucrative oil purchases from Russia, for which India is paying a tariff penalty of 25% on exports to the US. India is also living with the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAASTA) through special waivers for purchasing Russian defence equipment.
The aim of the visit is to give a new gloss to the India-Russia relationship that has seen better times. In the current troubled geopolitical moment, both see this as an opportunity, and reports suggest that the summit, for which they have done considerable home-work, will be consequential.
The Oil Question
The agenda for the summit is sizeable and comprises both the geopolitical and the substantive. The first item is the manner in which the two partners can deal with the issue of Russian oil purchases. India's steady reduction of Russian oil purchases cannot be to Moscow's liking, but the issue is just how New Delhi can balance it. As of now, private refiners like Reliance, Mangalore Refinery and Hindustan Petroleum have stopped their purchases, but some state-owned refiners such as Indian Oil and Bharat Petroleum are resuming purchases from non-sanctioned suppliers. Russia believes that the decline will be short-lived and is working to establish new trade mechanisms to bypass sanctions.
The New Weapons On The Cards
Then there is the issue of arms purchases. India's defence relationship with Russia goes back to the Cold War, when it became the first country to supply us submarines and supersonic fighters, both of which had been denied to us by western suppliers. Currently, 60-70% of Indian military equipment is Russian, comprising mainly T-90 tanks, Su-30MKI and Mig-29 fighters, the INS Vikramaditya aircraft carrier, and a clutch of eight Krivak class frigates, the first of which came in 1999 and the last was commissioned in July this year.
Russian systems - the Almaz-Antey S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile systems and the BrahMos (Indo-Russian), delivered outstanding performance in India's four-day Operation Sindoor against Pakistan. India had contracted five squadrons of the S-400 systems but has so far received only three because of Russia's Ukraine commitments. Reports suggest that India may go in for five more now. There has been talk of the purchase of the even more capable S-500 Prometheus, which can even intercept hypersonic cruise missiles and aircraft, as well as of Russia's fifth-generation fighter the Su-57. But as of this moment, it looks unlikely that New Delhi will go for them.
However, India and Russia are likely to proceed with a project to make the Brahmos-II, which will be based on the Russian missile Zircon, a scramjet-powered, hypersonic cruise missile. While the Brahmos-I has a speed of Mach 2.2, the Brahmos-II could go up to Mach 8, and while the former has a range of 400 km, the newer missile could reach 1,000 km.
The Pantsir Missile System
Last November, Bharat Dynamics signed an agreement with Russia's Rosoboronexport to collaborate in the manufacturing of the Pantsir self-propelled anti-aircraft and missile system. The plan is to use the system to replace the 1,200 or so outdated L-70 40 mm and ZSU-4 Schilka anti-aircraft guns of the Indian Army.
Another purchase India is contemplating is that of the Russian Almaz-Antey Voronezh long-range early warning radar. This will be oriented towards the Chinese threat and be used for early warning of Chinese ballistic missiles, stealth aircraft and drones. The plan is to have at least 60% of the system made in India.
A Russian Advantage
The most important aspect of India's arms transfer relationship with Russia is that the Russians are willing to offer systems that others would hesitate to provide, and do so without any pre-conditions. Almost all American systems come with some pre-conditions, which include on-site inspections.
The most important in this category are nuclear-propelled submarines. The Russians helped us to make our first such vessel, the INS Arihant, and since then, two other successor submarines have been made in Vishakhapatnam with substantial Russian help. Now, India is considering making nuclear attack submarines, which are faster than the ballistic missile submarines, and you can be sure that Russia will play an important role there.
Another way that Russia has helped us in this area has been to lease nuclear-propelled submarines, which have helped the Indian Navy familiarise themselves with running such vessels. Beginning 1988, the Russians leased us attack submarines that were named INS Chakra. Since then, in 2012, a successor vessel was leased for 10 years. In 2019, the two countries signed up for a $3 billion lease of a new Akula-class submarine. However, for a variety of reasons, the boat has not yet been received by India.
A Balancing Act
India knows that western systems are more advanced than those of Russia, and it has sought to balance between the two by steadily reducing its arms imports from Russia. But there are systems, like submarines, or missiles, like Brahmos, which will not be available to India. New Delhi is making strenuous efforts to reduce its dependence on foreign suppliers, be they Russian or Western. But that process will take time.
Another important item on the agenda is trade. Currently, Russian exports to India amount to $65 billion, mainly on account of oil. India's exports are an anemic $5 billion. Both sides are determined to change things. To this end, an important item on the agenda is to shape alternate payment systems to bypass western restrictions. Importantly, the two sides will discuss the issue of the Indian trade deficit and the need to sharply boost Indian exports to Russia. One item being identified is very small modular nuclear reactors.
Putin's visit will rejuvenate Russian ties with India. In the somewhat turbulent geopolitical environment of the day, the visit by a long-standing and steady partner will be well-received by the country. The US will be closely watching the outcome, both from the point of view of the oil issue and additional arms deals between India and Russia.
India will also have to contend with the views of the European Union, since tensions between Brussels and Moscow remain high. Maintaining strategic ties with Russia, even while deepening partnerships with the US and the EU, makes for an especially difficult phase, with the negotiations over the Ukraine war intensifying.
India will have to figure out ways to square the circle.
(The writer is a Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
