Consumer companies can cope with the baby bust. They just have to pivot to baby boomers.
Birth rates falling to historic lows across the developed world, combined with people living longer, are reshaping the global market for the things we eat, wear and put on our skin. Yet despite the fact that older people have more purchasing power, the consumer goods world is still far more obsessed with catering to the young. It's time for manufacturers to pay more attention to the silver economy - where there's a market for everything from food and personal care items to toys and fashion.
Japan has long been the epicenter for catering to an aging population, from having dedicated malls for seniors to employing robotic carers. But populations are also aging in Europe and the US.
Although children still outnumber older adults in the US, the gap is narrowing, according to the Vintage 2024 Population Estimates, released in June by the US Census Bureau.
Consumer goods companies are already starting to acknowledge this population shift. One of the most successful examples has been diaper manufacturers investing more in incontinence care. As the chart below shows, demand for incontinence products is growing faster than that for nappies. What's more, many of the items for older people aren't just bought by consumers - they're also purchased by facilities caring for the elderly, such as nursing homes, that will become even more prevalent as society confronts aging populations.
That's a lesson for other product categories. Infant nutrition could follow the same route. That explains why Nestle SA, the world's largest food manufacturer, and smaller rival Danone SA, both of which have big baby milk businesses, are increasingly developing products for adults, including the elderly, with specific dietary needs.
It's not enough to simply target existing items to new audiences. Pitching baby food to seniors would be a horrible idea. Yet companies that produce infant formula have the nutritional know-how to navigate the needs of older adults - seniors have smaller appetites yet need more nutrients, requiring more densely packed food - as well as the production facilities to manufacture specialist items in a highly regulated environment.
Nestle, for example, has developed a range of drinks containing very high concentrations of protein. It is also conducting a seven-country trial to investigate the benefits of a specialized drink for people with mild cognitive impairment, which affects about 20% of people over 65 and about 40% of those over 90.
It helps that protein is thefood industry's latest craze, driven in part by consumers taking GLP-1 weight loss drugs, whose appetites also shrink. But this paves the way for smaller, protein-packed portions for older people.
US meal delivery service Bistro MD offers plans tailored to individual requirements, such as weight loss, but also to those with diabetes, gluten intolerance and on GLP-1 medication. It has even introduced Silver Cuisine, specially designed for the over 50s.
Toys are another product at risk from declining birthrates. But almost 20% of the toy market in Europe and the US now comprises items for people over 18, according to research group Circana. Toys for seniors could be a multi-billion dollar market.
Indeed, since 2023, Hasbo Inc. has been working with Ageless Innovation, spun out of the toy giant in 2018, to create new versions of its popular games, such as Scrabble, with easier-to-pick-up pieces and new, shorter game options. There's also a version of Trivial Pursuit with cards containing questions for all generations.
But it is Ageless Innovation's range of robotic pets - debuting in 2015 with a cat and a dog the following year - that has particular potential to address isolation and loneliness among the elderly. The lifelike cats, dogs and a cheaper bird, dubbed the "Walker Squarker," contain sensors that respond to changes in sound, touch and light. The cat, like a real animal, has a vibrational purr and interacts in random patterns. The dog, which is more predictable, has a soothing heartbeat and technology enabling it to "bark back" to its owner. The pets don't contain AI yet, but gathering some data, perhaps to provide alerts to caregivers, could be future possibilities.
Rival Mattel Inc. has teamed up with Open AI to design and in some cases power toys. The initial set of products will be for teenagers and upwards. But there is clearly an opportunity to go further up the age range.
Finally, despite older adults spending more on travel and meals out, elderly fashion is often neglected. There is a market for clothing that is stylish yet suitable for silver fashionistas. And given that many older people have accumulated assets over their lifetimes, it's a potentially lucrative market at a time when demand elsewhere is fragile.
Higher necklines, more pockets and looser sleeves could easily be incorporated into designs. We get shorter as we age, so more length options in dresses and men's pants would be a relatively simple easy win, too.
For the very old, dexterity becomes more of an issue, making elasticated waists and front-fastenings necessary. Learnings from children's wear could be valuable here. British retailer Marks & Spencer Group Plc has created a range for children with disabilities or limited mobility, including hidden openings for feeding tubes, softer fabrics and replacing buttons on shirts with Velcro fastenings. It's not hard to see such features applied to items for the elderly. If technology - such as fabrics that help cool the body - could be incorporated, garments would be even more effective.
But perhaps the biggest opportunity for consumer companies is what trend forecaster WGSN has described as "living for longevity," in other words preparing for our many later years throughout our lives.
The wellness and beauty industries are most obvious beneficiaries. Collagen production is already a focus for skincare brands and vitamin makers. Nestle is also working on addressing cell decline, which begins in a person's 40s and starts to accelerate in their 60s. Creatine, which supplies energy to muscles and can also support brain health, is also coming into the longevity picture.
The consumer sector is fascinated with Gen Z and Gen Alpha. Thinking about their later years at the same time as selling them the latest frippery won't exactly make demographic change child's play, but it should make companies more resilient.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
