Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose: The more things change, the more they stay the same, is an apt description of the mood in Bangladesh on the eve of the elections due on February 12. The masks have fallen, one by one. The events of July-August 2024 that led to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's ouster - a movement once touted as a "spontaneous students' uprising" - are now recognised as the most recent among regime change operations that Bangladesh has witnessed, such as in 1975 (following the assassination of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman) and in 1981 (after the assassination of Zia-ur-Rahman). How Sheikh Hasina escaped with her life is another episode altogether.
The 13th national parliamentary elections are being hailed as 'different', quite distinct from those organised by Sheikh Hasina's government, most recently in 2024. The Yunus-led interim regime has banned the activities of the Awami League, barring them from participation in the forthcoming elections. By definition, this decision to ban the single largest political party in Bangladesh, with a steady vote share of 35-40%, has rendered the forthcoming elections non-inclusive and non-participatory. Such elections can hardly be described as credible since they flout the basic tenets of democracy. Bangladesh's second-largest political party, the BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party, presently led by Tarique Rahman, son of Begum Khaleda Zia), was never banned by the Awami League. The BNP made a deliberate choice not to participate in the 2024 elections.
The Wind Blows Many Ways
The national opinion survey conducted by Bangladesh's leading vernacular daily, Prothom Alo, in October 2025, published on December 9 that year, revealed that close to 70% of those surveyed want the Awami League to participate in these elections, conditionally or unconditionally. Twenty-eight per cent said they did not want the Awami League to participate in the elections. However, in terms of likely vote share, the survey revealed that close to 66% would vote for the BNP, and nearly 26% would vote for Jamaat-e-Islami, with only 7.2% voting for the Awami league. It is not a coincidence that the vote share of the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) and the percentage of those who do not want the Awami League's participation is approximately the same.
The Jamaat-e-Islami has been the de facto ruler of Bangladesh for the last 18 months, with Mohammed Yunus as their willing spokesperson. Their prime interest is to transform this into a de jure control through the February 12 elections. Is this possible? Using tactics like mobocracy and street riots, accompanied by the most brutal and horrendous violence, the JeI has forced the resignations of the entire senior judiciary, as well as key bureaucrats, university vice chancellors and any academician whose political views or affiliations were considered unacceptable. The attacks on religious minorities (Hindus, Buddhists, Christians, Sufis and Ahmaddiyas) follow the same pattern, and have continued unabated, bringing these communities to their knees, even as such attacks are described - even justified - as 'political' and 'non-communal' in nature. The media has similarly been brought under control through board-room takeovers, large-scale dismissals of 'inconvenient' journalists, and even imprisonment (including on murder charges) for scores of media personnel. As the traditional democracies of the West watch on in mute acquiescence, the JeI has acquired strong control over the levers of power, sabotaging every institution of democracy. The victory of the JeI's youth wing, the Islami Chhatra Shibir, in all the students' union elections held so far (Dhaka University, Jahangirnagar University, Jagannath University) signals strong control over students' bodies, pushing away both BNP and the recently formed NCP (National Citizen's Party, comprising the 'students' who were active in last year's events and dubbed the 'King's party' for its affiliation with Yunus). Notably, a recent article in The Washington Post reporting the transcript of an American diplomat's conversation seems to signal the US's support for the JeI.
The 'Undecided' Ones
On January 13 this year, Prothom Alo published the results of the December 2025 poll survey conducted by four organisations, covering all 64 districts of Bangladesh. This survey indicates a sharp increase in the support for JeI, now running neck-to-neck with the BNP. The results brought out that "over 34 per cent of voters intended to vote for the BNP, while over 33 per cent intend to vote for the Jamaat". The NCP, which has now joined the JeI's 11-party alliance, is shown as receiving a little over 7% of the vote share, while the Islami Andolan Bangladesh, which supports the declaration of Sharia law in Bangladesh, is reported as receiving over 3% of the vote share. This survey, if correct, cements JeI's lead, especially with the add-on of the NCP votes. However, 17% of those surveyed said they were undecided on who they would vote for.
These are the ones who hold the key. Among the undecided voters are a large number of women. The women of Bangladesh are dynamic, entrepreneurial, and fiercely protective of their independence. The last 18 months have been traumatic for them, the largest minority group of Bangladesh. Women's safety has been severely compromised, with a substantial increase in rapes, molestations and harassment on the streets of Dhaka and other towns/cities. Self-styled moral police routinely seek to impose (Islamic) dress-codes and question the popular use of the bindi (teep) by women across the nation. Constituting less than 4% of all candidates, there are hardly any women candidates in the fray, and many among these are 'dynastic'. The JeI does not have a single woman candidate, and the BNP has just 10 out of a total of 250. Add to this the burden of the economic crisis (job losses, especially among women workers in the ready-made garments sector, and uncontrolled inflation), where women are facing the brunt. The Daily Star concludes that "women voters are not undecided, they are unconvinced". JeI inflicted a self-goal when, in late January and early February, their Ameer Dr Shafiqur Rahman tweeted derogatory statements about women. There were protests on university campuses and by women's groups, with demands for an apology, which is not forthcoming. This has swung the vote away from JeI. But the question remains: will women now transfer their vote to the BNP?
On A Knife's Edge
The final poll survey before the elections was published by Prothom Alo on February 9, covering all 300 parliamentary constituencies, and conducted between January 21 and February 5. This shows an erosion of the January lead predicted for the 11-party alliance being led by the JeI. This survey shows the BNP-led alliance receiving 44.1% of the vote share, with JeI's alliance receiving 43.9%. In this survey, the number of undecided voters has come down to 6.5%. The election results are set on the proverbial knife's edge.
The Awami League, banned from participating in the elections, has been running an active "No Boat, No Vote" campaign (boat is the electoral symbol of the Awami League). This calls upon all Awami Leaguers to boycott the elections, which would bring the voter-participation rate crashing down. Across Bangladesh, there is heavy pressure, including threats from both JeI and the BNP, for Awami Leaguers to go to the booth and cast their vote. One survey result, conducted by a private organisation, published on February 9, claims that 80% Awami Leaguers will vote for the BNP, as will 77% of the women. This will give the BNP a thumping majority of 208 seats (out of 300), with just 46 (estimated) for the JeI. This, however, is an extreme scenario, unlikely to materialise.
There have been large-scale accusations of vote engineering. Tarique Rahman is said to have complained to the Election Commission about big increases in voter lists, with as many as 15 lakh new voters being shown across the 17 constituencies of Dhaka. There are examples where a household of four voters has received voter slips for 41 voters, with no explanation. Stuffing of ballot boxes is common in all elections ever held in Bangladesh. Since the reins of power are with JeI, a lot of these pre-election measures are being seen as part of JeI's all-out efforts to secure a majority for themselves, together with their alliance partners. In the end, this may prove to be elusive.
A 'Government Of National Consensus'
What is most likely to emerge after the February 12 elections is a Government of National Consensus, bringing together the JeI and the BNP, along with their alliance partners. This option has been on the table since June 2025, when Mohammed Yunus, on a visit to London, held detailed discussions with Tarique Rahman. The formula under consideration is Yunus being President of Bangladesh, with Tarique Rahman as Prime Minister and the Ameer of Jamaat-e-Islami as Deputy Prime Minister. Subsequently, Yunus has said he will hand over charge after the elections, and Tarique Rahman has said he will form the government on his own, with no coalition other than his alliance partners. Nonetheless, the likelihood of a National Consensus Government persists, with no single party likely to secure a majority on its own.
Yunus has shown extraordinary interest in obtaining a yes-vote for the referendum on the July National Charter-2025, scheduled to be held on the same day as the national elections. His regime was even issuing instructions to various branches of government to ensure a yes-vote, until the Election Commission raised objections. The ballot papers for the referendum have no numbering, allowing unlimited printing. A single yes or no vote is demanded on a total of 84 complex questions, clubbed into four segments. There is no provision for a referendum in the constitution of Bangladesh. Neither does the interim government enjoy the authority to undertake constitutional reforms, or in any way alter the structure of government. Yet the July Charter has been finalised, suggesting major changes, including additional powers for the President, with reduced responsibilities for the Prime Minister.
Yunus' Fate Is Bangladesh's Fate
Yunus sees himself as the prime candidate for the post of President. Yet, on the streets of Bangladesh, he is unpopular and much reviled. Ultimately, the acceptance (or otherwise) of Yunus as President may well be the turning point for the stability of the new post-election government. The people of Bangladesh have been patient, but are now increasingly critical of the deteriorating economy, the non-existent control of law and order, and the attempt (through the referendum) to force through the acceptance of constitutional changes. "Agei bhalo chhilo" (it was better before) is the constant refrain across the nation. Widespread violence could break out if there is any attempt to gerrymander the election results.
(The author is Former High Commissioner of India To Bangladesh)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
