Opinion | Pakistan's Jihad Factories May Soon Be Getting A 'Saudi' Lifeline

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) at the Royal Court in Al-Yamamah Palace, Riyadh, on September 17. Under this pact, any aggression against either country will be treated as aggression against both, thereby spectacularly formalising and consolidating a military partnership that has spanned decades.

The details remain opaque; however, the agreement essentially consolidates what has long been an informal practice between the two nations. Pakistan has historically maintained close ties with Saudi Arabia, mainly rooted in the Islamist orientation enshrined in Article 40 of the Pakistani Constitution and sustained by decades of financial support by the Kingdom. 

The Really Awkward Timing

The timing of the deal gains high notability given its arrival just days after an Israeli strike on Doha, Qatar, a Gulf neighbour of Saudi Arabia. It further follows the brief military confrontation between India and Pakistan in May, following the terror attack in Kashmir. On the face of it, the deal signals the emergence of a new security architecture linking the Indian subcontinent with West Asia. From Riyadh's perspective, the pact reflects diminishing confidence in the US as the security guarantor of the Gulf region. In that light, aligning with nuclear-armed Pakistan offers the Kingdom an added layer of deterrence and an ally with military capabilities. This is particularly considering the limited military capability in Saudi Arabia despite its strong financial resources. 

With Pakistan emerging as an active security player in West Asia, New Delhi will now have to recalibrate its strategic calculations. India's key concern is how Pakistan might leverage Saudi resources - financial aid, oil facilities, and diplomatic support - to advance its hostile designs. This piece focuses specifically on how the deal strengthens Pakistan's military-jihadi complex (MJC).

What The Military-Jihad Complex Really Is

The military-jihadi complex in the Indian security doctrine essentially is a single entity in Pakistan's strategic calculus. This framework conceptualises Pakistan as comprising two overlapping but distinct components - the formal state represented by a civilian government, and the MJC, a structure dominating the commanding heights of power. Under this logic, the Pakistani military establishment is not merely a passive supporter of anti-India outfits such as Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), but is functionally intertwined with them. The MJC encompasses military support structures, militant proxies, socio-political fronts, religious ideologues, criminal syndicates, and political influence to maintain domestic dominance while pursuing a hostile anti-India policy.

The impact of this deal on the MJC ecosystem could be seen beyond the lens of financial support from Riyadh. Historically, the MJC relied on support from Gulf countries for ideology, resources, and political cover. A formalised pact between Islamabad and Riyadh could deepen those dependencies.

For decades, Saudi Arabia has financially supported clerical organisations and madrassas promoting the Salafi and Wahhabi schools of thought in Pakistan. If the new deal expands such patronage, it may solidify the ideological framework on which the MJC relies. Continued funding of extremist networks could keep the pipeline of radicalised recruits flowing, thereby, in parts, emboldening Pakistan's security establishment. In the absence of explicit intent, the agreement could hold symbolic value, signalling to militant groups that their ideological orientation remains utilitarian.

Where The Money Comes From

Financial inflow holds more significance. The Pakistani military's influence ultimately hinges on external rents. As such, resources from Saudi Arabia in terms of oil on deferred payment, direct cash transfers, or investments could offer added insulation to the MJC from domestic economic shocks and Western aid conditionalities. This cushioning will enable the security establishment in Pakistan to sustain proxy operations in Kashmir or Afghanistan, despite internal fiscal challenges and diplomatic pressure. While this outcome is not inevitable, the precedent of assistance from Saudi Arabia suggests a high plausibility. The complex system already draws on financial resources from military-owned conglomerates, grey markets and charitable fronts. 

There Are Other Perks, Too

In the long term, despite uncertainties, closer defence ties raise the possibility of indirect access for Pakistan to sophisticated Western weapons, considering Riyadh's extensive procurement from the US and European countries. An exposure of this sort could enhance the Pakistani military's capabilities and confidence. In that light, the perception of improved strength in conventional military could consequently embolden proxy groups and inspire risk-taking in the region.

Deeper support from Saudi Arabia carries geopolitical weight too. It may not prevent Pakistan from sanctions, but it may likely widen the scope for negotiations while reducing costs for non-compliance. As the custodian of Islam's holiest sites, Saudi Arabia could also provide symbolic legitimacy to solidify the MJC's position in domestic discourse.

India Must Keep Its Eyes Open

For India, continued diplomatic engagements with Riyadh are key to signalling that support for militant proxies carries deep reputational costs. On September 18, Indian foreign ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said that the Indian government was "aware" of the signing of the Saudi-Pakistan defence pact and would "study the implications of this development for our national security as well as for regional and global stability". These developments do not indicate a downturn in India-Saudi Arabia ties; rather, Riyadh's reported decision to keep New Delhi in the loop on the developments was likely intended to manage regional sensitivities and maintain strategic balance. Moving forward, India should leverage diplomatic channels to reinforce security apprehensions vis-a-vis Pakistan-based groups while continuing cooperation with Gulf nations on trade, energy, and counter-terrorism initiatives.

(Aishwaria Sonavane is a research analyst at the Takshashila Institution)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author