The Indian Prime Minister has made three trips to West Bengal in the last two months. The Trinamool Congress compares PM Modi to a migrating bird, who shows up frequently during election seasons. But what's the reason for these frequent visits?
The West Bengal Assembly elections are quickly approaching, and will end between April and May of 2026. PM Modi and his chief lieutenant, Amit Shah, have quietly altered their West Bengal strthategy this time. Here are ten key pointers on what the BJP may be planning.
1. Taking On Mamata
The BJP doesn't have a strong figure in West Bengal who can challenge Mamata Banerjee in this election. As for the TMC, it has declared that in this election, Abhishek Banarjee's face will be less visible than Mamata's, who is expected to be featured heavily on posters and banners. Thus, in an attempt to offset Mamata's singularity, the BJP has chosen to endorse Modi as its face in Bengal.
True, the BJP has several competent leaders in Bengal. Like, Shamik Bhattcharyya, the new party president and an urban, middle-class, secular figure. Additionally, despite coming from the TMC, Suvendu Adhikari is a district leader in Medinipur and, in contrast to others, a mass leader due to his industrious work and active involvement in party activities. There is also Sukanta Majumder, the former state unit President and State Minister of education in the Indian government, who is also from North Bengal. But none of them can be an equal challenger to Mamata Banerjee. As for Dilip Ghosh, once the BJP's face in Bengal, he is now no longer a contender, thanks to various controversies.
2. Bengal's Guarantee
Since PM Modi has a strong national brand, the BJP is attempting to position him as Bengal's guarantee. The old catchphrase, "Modi hain to mumkin hai", will serve as a plank for creating a new Bengal - one that is developed, has law and order, and is free of 'infiltrators'.
Abhishek, on the other hand, claims that every booth he walks in will result in victory, unlike the BJP, which lacks the organisational power of the TMC.
This is why PM Modi has been going local and has been meeting with local workers in the district. Since the last election, the BJP has become aware that despite PM Modi's numerous messages, they were unable to reach every village because of the BJP's lack of organisational capacity. To close this gap, the BJP is using vlogs, podcasts, and local advertisements this time as part of its more aggressive social media campaign, and is even utilising the RSS's district-by-district help. Hence, one can expect greater coordination between the BJP and RSS this time.
In addition, though Mamta Banarjee has consistently promoted well-known programmes such as "Lakshmir Bhandar" and "Amader Para, Amader Samadhan" - and the BJP may find it difficult to beat the TMC on this - this time, they are attempting to bring in RSS employees from outside so they can work at the ground level and guage how much the people are actually benefiting from these schemes.
3. BJP-RSS Equation
The last time, there were some differences in opinion between the BJP and the RSS. The RSS Bengal 'pracharaks' are not fairly united, even though the party has an organisational secretary who represents the RSS. When Mohan Bhagwat was here previously, he chose to concentrate on RSS workers rather than meeting BJP officials.
The RSS's plan is also to replace Mamata Banerjee's regime in Bengal, but they have chosen to work independently of the BJP on this, which is a better approach. Therefore, the RSS plays a pivotal role in this election, and the outfit will plan their door-to-door campaign, meetings with civil society members, intellectuals, and RSS 'sakha' meetings in various districts.
4. Hindutva's Appeal
'Jai Shree Ram' is not the party's central campaign slogan this time. Instead, development is the theme. In his recent rallies, the Prime Minister used slogans like "Jai Maa Kali" and "Jai Maa Durga", and, in fact, at his Dumdum rally, he used neither. Instead, he focused on developmental issues to convey that only PM Modi, through the BJP government, could provide West Bengal the progress it so desperatly needs. Thus the "BJP lao, Bengal Bachao" slogan.
5. Focus Is TMC Government
This time, personal attacks on Mamata Banerjee are not part of the strategy either. Because of Abhishek Banerjee, Mamata was the primary focus of the last election. However, following the ED raids on Abhishek's home during the 2021 election, BJP leaders have been playing up the allegations against him of extortion, corruption, illegal coal mining, cow smuggling, sand smuggling, and other offences at every meeting. This time, at least as of yet, the emphasis is on corruption and the poor governance under the West Bengal government, as well as the state's unemployment and lack of work opportunities. The ;Renaissance city' has devolved into a decadent metropolis in the 19th century; it has to be revived, and the BJP government wants to convey that only they can bring forth a new era. This is a new strategy.
6. Polarisation Politics
Suvendu Adhikari had previously campaigned in the state on Hindu-Muslim issues. Since the BJP's primary strategy is to garner Hindu votes, polarisation politics will be a mainstay this time. The TMC on its part also needs Hindu votes, but not through Hindu-Muslim conflict, as Mamata cannot win with just Muslim support - that might work in Uttar Pradesh, but not in West Bengal. This is the latest observation made by the BJP.
Thus the focus on issues like cross-border infiltration and 'outsiders'. In his speeches, the Prime Minister has focused on how infiltration is unlawful occupation and illegitimate migration, and that people should not be allowed to vote or reside in West Bengal. He did this without resorting to hyperpoliticisation.
In contrast, the TMC claims that the West Bengal-Bangladesh border is the longest shared border with the state, and that the BSF paramilitary force is in charge of preventing infiltrators from crossing the border. In effect, the TMC has chosen to lay the blame on the Centre's door.
The BJP, however, contends that the TMC's protection and the West Bengal police are significant factors and that the BSF shouldn't be held solely responsible for infiltration. When it is possible, the BJP says, the Tripura government tracks down infiltrators, but the West Bengal government does not do the same.
7. Voter List
The voter list revision process in Bihar is rather thorough. The TMC, though, is making every effort to undermine this by taking the matter to court. Conversely, the BJP has launched political campaigns claiming that the SIR revision is a legitimate and common practice, but that the TMC is scuttling it because of the multiple deceased voters it continues to utilise to rig the election machinery. Ironically, decades ago, when the CPM had been in power in the state , the TMC had made similar allegations.
It remains to be seen what the Election Commission has to say on this.
8. The Scams In Bengal
There are multiple viewpoints within political circles regarding whether or not election corruption is an important issue. It has occasionally, but not usually, been a problem in our country. Rajiv Gandhi was knows as 'Mr. Clean' till 1984, but then Bofors happened in 1989, and the slogan, "Gali gali main shor hain, Rajiv Gandhi chor hain" caught on in every state.
So far, Mamata has remained unaffected by the BJP's efforts to campaign against Partha Chatterjee, the education scam, and other scandals in West Bengal. Despite the TMC's portrayal of corruption as a "washing machine issue" - that is, selective corruption - the BJP is working to popularise discussion on it and spotlight the problem.
9. Trial And Error
The BJP government is using a trial-and-error approach. Following the prime minister's first three rallies, surveys will be carried out and the results will be analysed in order to draw conclusions and organise the rest of the campaign appropriately.
What the next year brings remains to be seen.
(The author is Consulting Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
