- Bengal's 294-seat Assembly election results will be announced on May 4
- Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool seeks fourth term against BJP's bid
- 37 "bellwether seats" historically predict Bengal's ruling party since 1977
Bengal remains one of the most keenly watched states in the election results to be announced on May 4. Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool is seeking a fourth-consecutive term, while the BJP is fighting to form its first government in the eastern state.
Bengal has 294 Assembly constituencies, and many of them are expected to see a close contest. Predicting who will win becomes very tough, but poll experts point to 37 “bellwether seats” which may help determine the eventual winner.
Since 1977, whichever party has won the majority of these seats has always gone on to form the government in the state, DeKoder reported.
These 37 seats make up about 13 per cent of the total 294 Assembly constituencies. They are spread across the state and include all types of seats – general, Scheduled Caste (SC), and Scheduled Tribe (ST).
Around 15 to 20 per cent of these seats are located in areas like central Kolkata, south Bengal, and Southwest Bengal. Constituencies such as Bhawanipur, Diamond Harbour, Ausgram, Uday Narayanpur, and Magrahat East have often followed the winning trend.
“Even if you add all the ‘super bellwether' seats from across the country, they don't come close to the 37 seats in Bengal alone," said election analyst Dorab Sopariwala on DeKoder.
He added that West Bengal stands out when compared to other states. Uttar Pradesh has just one such seat with a perfect record; Bihar and Maharashtra have none; Madhya Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have 3 each; Odisha and Gujarat have 5 each, and West Bengal alone has 37.
One major reason behind this strong trend is Bengal's political history.
For nearly 50 years, the state was mostly ruled by two parties – the Left Front for 34 years and then the Trinamool Congress. Since governments didn't change often, people in many of these seats got used to voting in line with the party that was popular across the state.
So, when the ruling party was picked across Bengal, these seats also voted the same way. Over time, this made them strong indicators of the overall result.
West Bengal has a 294-member Assembly, and a party needs at least 148 seats to form the government.
