- Vijay's second political conference attracted large crowds, mainly young voters and first-timers
- Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam may split anti-incumbency votes, benefiting ruling DMK
- Vijay could draw minority Christian votes away from DMK, but large shifts seem unlikely
Actor-turned-politician Vijay's second major political conference has reignited debate on the kind of impact he could make in Tamil Nadu's 2026 Assembly elections. The event, billed as a show of strength, drew large crowds, particularly from young voters and first-time electors - a constituency that Vijay's supporters believe will form the bedrock of his Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).
Political observers, however, remain divided on the electoral implications. One section believes Vijay could end up drawing anti-DMK votes and, in the process, cut into AIADMK's traditional base, splitting the anti-incumbency vote and indirectly helping the ruling DMK. Another section points out that actor Seeman's Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK), which commands considerable support among the youth, could lose a significant share of its base to Vijay's TVK.
There is also speculation over minority votes. Vijay, being a Christian, is expected to attract some sections of minorities who traditionally support the DMK. But with the ruling party firmly in power and Vijay's political credentials yet untested, many believe a large-scale shift may not happen.
Despite reiterating that the 2026 elections will be a "direct fight" between DMK and TVK, Vijay has not been able to infuse confidence among potential allies. Though he has promised a share in power for partners, no major party has so far joined hands with him. Sources indicate that if the AIADMK snaps ties with the BJP closer to elections, Vijay could be open to striking an alliance - a move that could significantly alter Tamil Nadu's political arithmetic.
In his speech, Vijay evoked the legacies of CN Annadurai and MGR, predicting that 2026 would mirror the watershed 1967 and 1977 elections that reshaped the state's politics. Annadurai's 1967 victory ended the Congress's dominance in Tamil Nadu, while MGR's 1977 triumph kept the DMK out of power for over a decade.
Yet, sceptics caution against expecting a repeat of the MGR-Jayalalithaa era. They point out that over the last few decades, several stars, including Sivaji Ganesan, Vijayakanth, Sarathkumar and Kamal Haasan, have failed to reach the Chief Minister's chair in a state where cinema once played a decisive role in politics. Even Superstar Rajinikanth had to opt out. Many political watchers estimate Vijay's vote share could be in the 7 to 9 per cent range - not insignificant, but not enough to capture power outright.
