Uttarakhand is grappling with an unprecedented climate crisis. November and December passed without a drop of rain or a flake of snow, and with more than half of January gone, there are still no signs of relief. From high-altitude peaks like Om Parvat and Adi Kailash to popular hubs like Kedarnath, Badrinath, and Munsiyari, the mountains remain uncharacteristically bare. This lack of precipitation is devastating local horticulture, agriculture, and a tourism industry that usually thrives on heavy winter snow.
A Fundamental Shift in the Seasonal Calendar
This is not merely a short-term fluctuation. Data from the last 15 to 20 years confirms a fundamental shift in the Himalayan climate: winter is eroding, and summer is expanding. While early winters have become dry, recent years have seen heavy snowfall delayed until February, March, or even April.
The Science Behind the Dry Spell
Scientifically, both atmospheric and ground temperatures are rising. A major factor is the weakening of Western Disturbances (WDs). Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director-General of the IMD, confirmed that climate change is altering the Subtropical Westerly Jet Stream. As these disturbances shift northward and away from the Arabian Sea, they lose access to moisture. This results in weaker systems, altered tracks, reduced precipitation, and increased smog across northwestern India.
The "Third Pole" Under Threat
Dr DP Dobhal, a renowned glaciologist formerly with the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, emphasises that the Himalayas - often called the "Third Pole" for their massive store of ice - are in peril. With over 16,000 glaciers across the range, their survival depends entirely on the volume and duration of snow cover.
Dr Dobhal's research highlights several alarming trends:
Shrinking Snow Cover: The decline in snowfall began 10-15 years ago, causing the snowline to shift to higher altitudes.
Delayed Seasons: In the 1980s, snowfall began in September. Today, that timeline has shifted into late December or January.
Rapid Melting: Glaciers are now melting well past October, previously the standard end of the melting season.
Structural Risks: Rising temperatures are causing cracks in glaciers, leading them to collapse under their own weight and increasing the risk of avalanches.
The Impact on Small Glaciers
While large, debris-covered glaciers are somewhat insulated by layers of rock and soil, smaller glaciers (those under 1 square km) are disappearing rapidly. These small glaciers make up 60% to 70% of the Himalayan ice pack and serve as a crucial water source for the region.
Ultimately, the current dry spell in Uttarakhand is a localised symptom of a global problem. While the Karakoram and parts of Jammu and Kashmir received some snow this year, the Western Disturbances remained too weak to reach Uttarakhand, leaving the "Devbhoomi" peaks brown and dry.
