BJP Prefers A Weakened But Not Decimated Trinamool. It Serves 2 Purposes

The Trinamool Congress looks stuck in a downward spiral since the recent electoral debacle in West Bengal. The party and its leader Mamata Banerjee who ruled the state for 15 years have surprised even their worst critics with the stunning speed at which it is unravelling after May 5.

Within days of the results, a string of spokespersons were sacked after speaking against the party leadership and pinning the blame of the loss on party general secretary and Mamata Banejee's nephew Abhishek Banerjee.

Since then, it has been all downhill for the party. The latest "rebellion" in its legislature party has come as a rude jolt to the fledgling leadership. The appointment of the Leader of Opposition in the Assembly has split the party down the middle. A large chunk of party's 80 MLAs have rallied behind the expelled leader Ritabrata Banerjee and want him to be the Leader of Opposition, in a direct challenge to Mamata Banerjee's authority who has nominated Sobhandeb Chattopadhyay as her pick for Leader of Opposition.

In a replay of the Shiv Sena saga of Maharashtra, this faction, according to another expelled leader Riju Datta, is likely to claim itself the "real" Trinamool and demand the post of the Leader of Opposition. In case of a likely showdown with the Didi-nephew duo, the rebels may even make a play for the party symbol.

Mamata Banerjee must have got a reality check on the brewing resentment against her and Abhishek Banerjee when over 60 of her MLAs didn't even turn up for a meeting at her residence on Sunday.

It's All Working To BJP's Benefit

The BJP since the election victory has categorically stated that its doors are shut for the Trinamool leaders. While politics watchers predicted an exodus from the Trinamool to the BJP, the saffron party stated that it was not interested in the "Trinamoolisation" of the BJP and there was no question of taking in the disgruntled leaders. So, what could be the BJP's gameplan? A disintegrated, divided and diminished Trinamool, rather than a destroyed Trinamool. That's what the BJP seems to be betting on. The party would prefer a weakened Trinamool under a new leadership as opposition rather than have Mamata Banerjee the unchallenged Opposition leader attempting a comeback and revival. 

The BJP is politically too shrewd to underestimate Didi's capacity to try and make a comeback. If BJP opens its doors to the disgruntled Trinamool leaders, it risks making Mamata Banerjee a martyr stabbed in the back by her own leaders at the time she needed them to aid her fightback. That makes the turncoats traitors to Didi's cause. That's something BJP would not want to happen. Rebellion within the Trinamool Congress against Mamata Banerjee, a fight over the control of the party and its symbol serves BJP's interest better. A fractured TMC rather than a fighting fit TMC is what BJP would prefer.

Jostling For The Opposition Space

Keeping Trinamool there in a diluted form also serves the BJP purpose of keeping the Congress and Left's hopes for revival in check. Congress smells a chance of revival in Trinamool's trouncing, and the party must be secretly hoping for largescale desertions from the party. In the process, it may also hope for some Trinamool leaders to make their way back into the Congress, from which Mamata Banerjee broke away to establish her party. BJP would not want that. It would prefer Trinamool Congress to remain the main opposition, even though symbolic. 

Destroy TMC From Within, Not Outside

TMC leaders speaking out against Mamata Banerjee and Abhishek Banerjee, discrediting them in the eye of public, a new leadership taking over the party, a split in the ranks that diminishes Didi-nephew stronghold over the party - that's the best-case scenario for the BJP. For the party knows too well that Mamata Banerjee may be down for the moment, but is definitely not out. But, if she is seen as unable to hold her own party, her political stocks definitely go down. A political weakened Mamata is also bad news for INDIA bloc. With little political heft in Bengal and a party withering away from her control hurts Didi's political capital within the opposition alliance.

For Didi, Dilli Ab Door Hai

Not the one to hide her national ambition, Mamata Banerjee has always wanted a bigger role in Delhi. There is talk of her shifting to Delhi after the Bengal loss. But the crisis within her party is sure to keep her engaged more in Bengal than work on some national plans. BJP would prefer a Mamata Banerjee confined to Kolkata crisis management and trying to retain control over her party than a Mamata breathing down their neck in Parliament. Didi clearly has bigger battle at hands in Bengal that will need her attention. Dream for a Delhi run might have to wait.