Tamil Nadu Decides: Will DMK Dominate, AIADMK Fight Back, Or Vijay Rise?

Monday dawns with Tamil Nadu holding its breath, the focus on the counting of votes for what is widely regarded as one of the most unpredictable Assembly elections in recent years.

In the driving seat is Chief Minister MK Stalin and his Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.

Backing his bid for a second term (and fourth major election win) is the Secular Progressive Alliance - a tried and tested bloc that includes the Congress, two Left parties, and the Indian Union Muslim League, as well as a handful of Tamil outfits.

To this, he has added late actor Vijayakanth's Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam - to help consolidate northern and central districts - and O Panneerselvam from the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, to lock in Thevar community votes.

MK Stalin, the man who would be 'king', again (File).

The DMK has highlighted its governance record and welfare schemes in messages to voters, and emphasised the need for administrative continuity to ensure the state's development.

The unpredictability - marked by varied exit poll predictions - that underpins this election is in large part because of actor Vijay and his Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, his nascent political party.

The Vijay factor

Looking to follow other actors with successful political careers - MG Ramachandran and Jayalalithaa among them - Vijay has made it clear he will have no truck with the ruling DMK or the Bharatiya Janata Party, whose muscular brand of nationalism has never really gone down well with the Tamil people. One is his political enemy, the other his ideological foe, he has said.

The TVK's first election campaign has been nothing if not dramatic, with the controversy over the Karur stampede and the furore over Vijay's 'Jana Nayagan', reportedly his final movie as he makes the cinema-to-politics jump, grabbing the headlines.

Vijay, the cinema star who wants to be a politician (File).

Vijay's verbal sparring with the DMK has also been a feature of this election campaign, underscoring the tension between the king and his nouveau challenger. The actor has been as unsparing in his criticism of the BJP, accusing it of belittling Tamil pride and discriminating against the state with respect to administrative and governance issues.

But he has been more circumspect with the AIADMK for various reasons, likely the biggest of which is that attacking both Dravidian parties risks alienating almost the entire vote bank.

The old enemy

A stuttering AIADMK - the other half of the state's Dravidian political legacy - is doing all it can to position itself as the only alternative to Stalin and the DMK. But the raft of leadership issues and organisational challenges that have remained unresolved a decade after J Jayalalithaa's death.

There are still questions over Edappadi K Palaniswami's leadership of the AIADMK, and the loss of two senior leaders - KA Sengottaiyan to the TVK and O Panneerselvam to the DMK is a blow.

Edappadi K Palaniswami, the man plotting a comeback (File).

OPS' loss, in particular, could prove the big loss because he potentially splits the influential Thevar community vote that might normally land en masse in the AIADMK's pocket.

It has focused on cost-of-living concerns and law and order, and fired trenchant criticisms of the DMK government's performance. The AIADMK will also rely on anti-incumbency, though the emergence of Vijay will split that bloc of votes.

The 'outsider'

The BJP is a smaller but relevant player in this electoral landscape.

While it is unlikely to be a primary actor in this drama, its vote share and performance in certain constituencies could influence margins and results, particularly in multi-cornered contests.

And its alliance strategy - it has tied up with the AIADMK - could impact a few others.

The exit polls

The exit poll landscape is unusually fractured this time, with sharply divergent predictions placing each of the principal contenders - the DMK, the AIADMK, and the TVK - in the lead.

The Axis My India survey threw up the biggest surprise, projecting a sensational debut for the TVK with 98 to 120 seats to edge out the DMK 92 to 110, and leave the AIADMK with 22 to 32.

But the People's Pulse saw the DMK retaining power comfortably; it gave Stalin 125 to 145 seats, followed by the AIADMK at 65 to 80, and the TVK a still-impressive 18 to 24 seats on its debut.

Chanakya joined People's Pulse in predicting a second straight term for the DMK, giving it 125 seats while placing the TVK second with 63 seats and the AIADMK a distant third with 45. Vote shares estimates were 39 per cent for the DMK, 30 for the TVK, and 27 per cent for the AIADMK.

JVC–Times Now predicted a surprise AIADMK comeback, giving EPS party a barely credible 128 to 147 seats, with the DMK reduced to 75 to 95, and the TVK projected to win a handful only.

Parties push back

With each major formation being projected to win in at least one survey, political parties have largely dismissed the projections, choosing instead to project confidence.

For the DMK camp, spokesperson Dr Syed Hafeezullah described the positive projections as "conservative" and claimed the party would secure a clear majority on its own.

The TVK's Nirmal Kumar echoed similar optimism. He claimed that the ground reality would defy conventional projections and deliver a mandate in Vijay's favour.

And the AIADMK outright rejected the forecasts. Party MP Inbadurai said exit polls had historically underestimated the party. “We will win 150 seats,” he asserted.

It is interesting to note that Tamil Nadu usually returns decisive outcomes.

Region watch

The key area to watch will likely be the western belt, which has traditionally been an AIADMK stronghold. If the party can hold on to these seats, then it has a solid base to build on. For the DMK, the key areas are urban centres like Chennai, the minority vote, and the northern districts. Shifts here could indicate voter preferences and may even open the door for Vijay.

The target

Tamil Nadu has a 234-member Assembly. The majority mark, therefore, is 118.