Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah's plan to host a dinner meeting with his council of ministers on October 13 has triggered intense speculation about an impending cabinet reshuffle.
For now, the Congress officially insists there are no talks on a reshuffle till the Bihar poll ends. According to sources, the party high command will take the final call "only after the Bihar elections," scheduled for November this year.
Party leaders privately admit that the high command's current focus is the Bihar election, and that any major decision on Karnataka will be deferred until those polls conclude.
That decision, however, is tied to a more delicate matter -- the long-running speculation about a "rotation of chief ministership" between Siddaramaiah and his deputy, DK Shivakumar. The Congress, keen to project unity, has dismissed such talk in public, but multiple camps within the party continue to push competing agendas.
According to sources, Siddaramaiah's camp sees a reshuffle as an opportunity to consolidate his authority. The impression is that Siddaramaiah is pushing for a reshuffle because that reshuffle would mean he can rework the alignments within. If a reshuffle is effected with him at the top, then it means that his position is cemented.
The rival camp, loyal to Shivakumar, reportedly prefers no reshuffle at all but is pushing for a change of guard at the top itself.
That, sources say, is precisely what the Congress high command wants to avoid, and keep its focus right now on Bihar polls and not allow any kind of speculation or talk of dissent coming out in the open.
Against this backdrop, Siddaramaiah's October 13 dinner invitation has raised eyebrows. Officially, the Chief Minister has described it as a courtesy meeting to keep all the ministers informed and up to date with developments. But party sources say it could serve as an informal sounding board before the inevitable shake-up.
Shivakumar has publicly deferred to the party's leadership, saying all decisions would be taken "by the high command." Yet, insiders insist that Shivakumar's loyalists continue to push for a leadership change. MLA Iqbal Hussain openly declared, "DK Shivakumar will become Chief Minister."
Others, including Home Minister G Parameshwara, have tried to tamp down speculation. No extended reshuffle has been discussed, Parameshwara said, adding that the dinner meeting should not be misinterpreted.
On Tuesday, two key members of Siddaramaiah's cabinet -- PWD Minister Satish Jarkiholi and Parameshwara -- publicly urged the Congress high command to put an end to speculation about a leadership change.
"High command has to say - full stop. If they say, it will be good. If not, it will create confusion among bureaucracy and within the party," Jarkiholi said. "In my opinion a full stop has to be put to this topic at the earliest."
"What Satish Jarkiholi has said is right. Every day we are seeing each one (from the party) giving different statements in the media. His statement that the issue should be resolved is correct. The high command will do it. The high command is aware and know what medicine has to be given in what situation... As Satish Jarkiholi has said, I too will say - solve the confusion," Parameshwara concurred.
Speculation about a "change of guard" dates back to May 2023, when the Congress returned to power in Karnataka. The party had to carefully negotiate between the Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar factions to form the government.
As the government nears that halfway mark in November, some Congress legislators have reignited the debate. MLA HD Ranganath and former MP LR Shivarame Gowda claimed that "Shivakumar will become the next Chief Minister of the state," adding that "it will happen in November."
Siddaramaiah has dismissed these remarks unequivocally. Speaking to reporters in Mysuru during the Dasara celebrations, he said: "I will be the Chief Minister for a full five-year term." But he added a note of deference to his party leadership: "Whatever the high command decides, we have to go by it."
