- India's southwest monsoon shows a 28% rainfall deficit nationwide till June 14
- Central India records a 55% rainfall shortfall, East and Northeast about 40% deficit
- Monsoon rains remain weak due to an unusual upper-level jet stream shift
India's southwest monsoon, which made an early and promising entry, has hit a concerning lull, leaving vast swathes of the country parched and amplifying worries over agriculture, drinking water, and rural economies.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country received just 34.3 mm of rainfall between June 4 and June 14, compared to the normal 47.7 mm - a nationwide shortfall of 28%. Central India has been hit hardest, recording a 55% deficit so far, while East and Northeast India are down around 40%. The southern peninsula is marginally below normal at a 4% deficit, but Northwest India stands out as the only region with surplus rainfall (13% above normal).
Weak Activity To Persist
Meteorologists note that while the monsoon front has technically pushed into more parts of central and eastern India, the rain-bearing systems remain unusually weak due to an atypical shift in the upper-level jet stream. Large-scale monsoon activity is forecast to stay subdued through at least June 21, with most rainfall coming from scattered, localised thunderstorms rather than organised monsoon showers.
In the coming days, the Karnataka-Andhra Pradesh-Tamil Nadu border areas and the Eastern Ghats are likely to see pockets of moderate to heavy rain accompanied by lightning and gusty winds. The monsoon is expected to continue advancing on paper into remaining parts of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, and Chhattisgarh, but widespread vigorous rainfall is not anticipated during this phase.
Signs Of Revival
Conditions are expected to improve gradually in the second half of June. Thunderstorm activity is likely to pick up between June 22 and 28 over interior Karnataka, southern Tamil Nadu, and the Western Ghats. Coastal stretches of Kerala and Karnataka, along with areas extending towards Mumbai, may also receive increased rainfall.
A more robust revival is projected between June 29 and July 5, with stronger monsoon flows possibly bringing heavy spells first to southern Kerala's Western Ghats and the Konkan coast.
The IMD has already forecasted a below-normal monsoon season for 2026 overall, at about 90% of the long-period average. The current sluggish start aligns with the emergence of El Nino conditions in the Pacific, which are historically linked to weaker Indian monsoons. Global agencies, including the World Meteorological Organisation, have placed high probability on El Nino persisting through the June-August period.
State-Wise Impact
Several key agricultural states are facing steep deficits in the first two weeks of June:
- Gujarat: 75% below normal
- Maharashtra: 69% below normal
- Meghalaya: 86% below normal
- Madhya Pradesh: 23% deficit
- Chhattisgarh: Over 50% deficit
Nearly 200 districts across India are currently experiencing deficient rainfall. Regions such as Maharashtra, Goa, and the Konkan belt are still waiting for widespread monsoon rains.
While a prolonged weak phase could delay sowing, strain reservoirs, and affect rural demand, forecasters emphasise that the situation is being closely monitored. The expected pickup after June 23 offers cautious optimism that the season could still recover momentum in the weeks ahead. For now, many parts of India will have to depend on intermittent thunderstorms to bridge the gap until the full monsoon circulation strengthens.
