Race For Two-Thirds Majority: Inside Parliament's New Numbers Game

The BJP is gearing up for a massive political test in the upcoming monsoon session of parliament. The government is actively working on the numbers to pass two major constitutional amendments.

The first is the 130th Amendment Bill, which proposes the removal of a prime minister, chief minister or minister if they are jailed for 30 days, even on mere allegations. The second, and perhaps the most talked-about, is the 131st Amendment Bill. This crucial bill links the already-passed 33 per cent Women's Reservation to the Delimitation process, which means a massive restructuring and increase in the number of Lok Sabha seats.

Because these are constitutional amendments, a simple win won't do. The government needs a special two-thirds majority in both the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha. To reach this magic number, the BJP is trying to divide regional Opposition blocs and win the support of smaller parties.

Flashback To April: What Went Wrong?

Before looking at the current plan, we need to see what happened in the last session in April. The government brought the Delimitation Bill to the floor, but it failed to pass because it fell short by 54 votes.

Here is what the voting looked like back then:

Total MPs who voted: 528

Votes in favour: 298

Votes against: 230

Special majority (2/3rd majority) was 352

A screen shows the initial results of the vote on the Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill, 2026 in the Lok Sabha on April 17, 2026. Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla, after counting of ballot slips, later announced the final results of the division: 298 ayes and 230 noes with zero abstentions. Photo: Sansad TV via PTI

In the background of all this, the larger 'One Nation, One Election' (ONOE) project is also being reviewed by parliamentary committees. However, right now, all eyes are on the monsoon session. Recent political developments and changing friendships in the Opposition have made the NDA stronger, giving the government confidence to try again.

Shifting Alliances: Trinamool And DMK Factors

The biggest boost to the NDA's confidence comes from some major shifts in the political landscape. Recently, 20 rebel MPs from the Trinamool wrote a letter to Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla. In the letter, they said they want to merge into a new group called 'Nationalist Citizens Party of India' and officially become a part of the BJP-led NDA.

Down south, the DMK (which holds 30 seats in parliament - 22 in Lok Sabha and 8 in Rajya Sabha) has started distancing itself from the Congress and the INDIA bloc. This rift opened up after the Congress decided to support C Joseph Vijay in Tamil Nadu politics. Because of this tension, the DMK may silently or openly help the NDA with the numbers.

Bridging The Gap In Lok Sabha

There are 540 MPs in the lower house. To get a two-thirds majority, the government needs exactly 360 votes. Right now, the NDA has 292 MPs - short by 68 votes.

Scenario 1: Finding New Friends

With the new political equations, here is how the numbers could stack up for the government:

Current NDA strength: 292

If the 20 Trinamool rebels join as planned: Total becomes 312

If 6 rebel Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs join: Total becomes 318

If the 22 DMK MPs support the bill due to their rift with Congress: Total becomes 340

If 8 NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) MPs support: Total becomes 348

Interestingly, NCP (SP) leader Supriya Sule has offered conditional support. She said her party will back the bill only if the government formally guarantees a uniform 50 per cent increase in seats for the Lok Sabha and all state assemblies.

Even if all these parties support the NDA, the total reaches 348. The government will still need 12 more MPs to hit the 360 mark. To get these final votes, they will likely target smaller groups like the YSRCP (4), JMM (3), VCK (2), RLP (1), Akali Dal (1), and a few independent MPs.

Scenario 2: What If Opposition Walks Out?

Sometimes, parties do not vote against a bill; they simply walk out or remain absent. The special majority depends on the members present and voting.

What happens if the Trinamool rebels (20), DMK (22), Shiv Sena UBT rebels (6), and NCP-SP (8) decide to stay absent instead of voting directly for the NDA?

The total number of voting MPs will drop from 540 to 484.

The new two-thirds target will come down to 323.

With their current 292 MPs, the NDA will still be short by 31 votes.

The Rajya Sabha Challenge

Passing the bill in the upper house is equally tricky. The total strength of the Rajya Sabha is 245, though currently there are 242 MPs. The special majority needed right now is 162. The NDA currently has about 150 MPs.

Scenario 1: Relying On DMK Rift

If the NDA gets support from NCP-SP (1 MP) and the DMK (8 MPs, who are currently upset with the Congress), their total will reach 159.

Later this month, three former Trinamool MPs who recently resigned and joined the BJP are contesting Rajya Sabha bypolls. If they win, the NDA's strength goes up to 162. However, since the house will be back to its full strength of 245, the new two-thirds target will increase to 164. The NDA will still fall short by 2 votes. They will have to seek help from neutral parties like YSRCP (7), BJD (5), BRS (3), or the BSP (1).

Scenario 2: The Absence Game In The Upper House

If the 9 MPs from NCP(SP) and DMK choose to stay absent, the house strength drops to 233. The new magic number will be 156. The NDA, sitting at 150, will be 6 votes short.

If we include the 3 new BJP MPs from West Bengal, the total house strength goes to 245. If the 9 opposition MPs abstain, the voting members drop to 236. The two-thirds mark becomes 158. The NDA will have 153 MPs in this case, meaning they will still miss the target by 5 votes.

As the monsoon session approaches, the ruling party's floor managers will be working overtime. Every single vote, defection, and walkout will decide the fate of these historic bills.