- Climate models suggest a strong El Nino could develop late 2026 and persist into 2027
- Sea surface temperatures may exceed 2°C anomalies in central and eastern Pacific regions
- El Nino impacts include weaker Indian monsoons, droughts, heatwaves, and altered rainfall
Climate scientists and forecasters are closely watching the tropical Pacific after one of the world's leading seasonal forecasting systems indicated the possibility of a powerful El Nino developing later this year and persisting into 2027, potentially influencing weather patterns across India and around the world.
The latest projections from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), which combines outputs from multiple climate models, suggest sea surface temperatures in parts of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific could rise to levels associated with some of the strongest El Nino events on record.
The outlook for the November-December-January 2027 period projects sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2 degrees Celsius across large parts of the central and eastern Pacific, with some model outputs indicating warming of more than 5 degrees Celsius in certain regions. If realised, such warming would place the event among the strongest El Nino episodes ever observed.
Scientists classify a strong El Nino when temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region rise between 1.5°C and 1.9°C above average, while anomalies above 2°C are associated with very strong events.
"The NMME forecasts are a useful early signal, but they are not definitive," Prof. Anjal Prakash, public policy professor at FLAME University and an IPCC author told NDTV.
"By combining multiple climate models, the NMME reduces single-model biases and provides a more robust picture of large-scale climate trends. A consistent warming signal across the central and eastern Pacific increases confidence that conditions may be moving toward El Niño. However, predictability declines significantly beyond a few months because of internal climate variability and uncertainties in ocean-atmosphere interactions," he said.
Prakash said the projections should be viewed as an early warning rather than a prediction, but noted that the signal warrants preparedness in sectors such as agriculture, water resources, fisheries and disaster management.
While long-range forecasts remain uncertain, the persistence of the warming signal across multiple model runs has drawn attention within the climate community.
"At this lead time, nobody can say a super El Nino is guaranteed," said Raghu Murtugudde, Earth System Scientist and former professor at the University of Maryland and IIT Bombay. "But when multiple models begin converging on a strong warming scenario, it becomes a signal worth monitoring closely."
Operational forecasters are also seeing signs of strengthening Pacific warming.
"El Nino conditions are likely to strengthen in the coming months. Sea surface temperature anomalies in key parts of the equatorial Pacific are already approaching El Nino thresholds, and if the warming continues, its influence on global weather patterns could become more pronounced by the latter half of the year," said Mahesh Palawat, Vice President, Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather.
Speaking to NDTV, Palawat said that sea surface temperatures in parts of the eastern and central Pacific are already running around 1.5°C above normal, approaching levels typically associated with a strong El Nino. He said the Niño 3.4 region - a key indicator used to monitor El Nino strength - will be closely watched over the coming months as forecasters assess whether the warming signal consolidates into a stronger event.
The emerging signal is also being tracked by international forecasting centres, including the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which has indicated increasing odds of El Niño conditions developing in the tropical Pacific.
El Nino refers to the periodic warming of waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon capable of altering weather patterns across the globe. In India, strong El Nino years have often been associated with weaker monsoons, prolonged dry spells and elevated heat stress, although the relationship is not always straightforward.
"The climate system today is operating on a much hotter foundation than it was a few decades ago," said climate scientist Roxy Mathew Koll of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. "Any naturally occurring warming event such as El Nino now interacts with climate change, increasing the likelihood of extreme rainfall, heatwaves and marine heat stress."
Scientists are also paying attention to the longer-term implications of the developing event.
"The developing El Nino is expected to strengthen through late 2026 and peak around January-February 2027, with its influence likely persisting into mid-2027," Murtugudde said.
He noted that the warming impacts of El Nino often outlast the event itself.
"We saw this after the 2023 El Niño. Even as it began to decay, 2024 turned out to be even warmer globally because El Nino releases heat stored in the oceans into the atmosphere, and the climate system continues to feel those effects even after the event starts weakening," he said.
"As a result, there is a strong possibility that global temperatures could remain elevated into next year as the heat associated with this El Niño continues to be released from the oceans."
Historically, strong El Nino events have increased drought and wildfire risks in parts of Australia and Southeast Asia, brought heavier rainfall to western South America, and contributed to marine heatwaves, coral bleaching and disruptions to fisheries.
For India, the implications extend beyond seasonal rainfall totals. Scientists caution that the timing and distribution of rainfall often matter more than the final monsoon number.
"At this stage, I would not read too much into the June rainfall deficit," Murtugudde said. "June typically contributes only about 10-15% of India's total seasonal monsoon rainfall. Even though rainfall is currently around 8% below normal, the core monsoon months are July and August, which account for the bulk of the season's rainfall."
"If monsoon circulation strengthens and moisture transport improves, a large part of the current deficit can still be recovered," he said.
"The more important issue is not the cumulative seasonal total, but the distribution of rainfall - where it falls, when it falls, and whether it arrives during critical agricultural periods. A season can end with near-normal rainfall overall and still create significant problems if the rain is concentrated in a few heavy events or if large regions remain dry during key sowing and crop-growth stages."
Meteorologists emphasise that ocean-atmosphere conditions can still change significantly before 2027. Nevertheless, the latest model guidance suggests the Pacific Ocean may be entering a period of heightened climate volatility, with potential implications for monsoons, food security, water resources and extreme weather worldwide.
