No Rajya Sabha Innings Yet For New BJP Boss Nitin Nabin. This Is Why

Nitin Nabin took charge as the BJP's new National President Tuesday morning – 24 hours ago – and is already at work. The first decisions included appointing the party's in-charge and co-in-charge for the Kerala Assembly election later this year, as also some local body polls.

And this morning he kickstarted a day-long meeting with the senior leaders from the BJP's state units, including its presidents, and the party's organisational general secretaries.

Also on the immediate agenda is a visit to poll-bound Bengal, which is widely seen as the biggest, and potentially most difficult, electoral battle the BJP has faced in recent years, given the hat-trick of federal and Assembly election defeats to Trinamool boss Mamata Banerjee.

But the big question is this – will Nabin participate in the Bihar Assembly's budget session, which begins February 2. The question arises because even though he has resigned from Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's cabinet – he was the state's Roadways Minister – he remains an MLA.

Nabin as an MLA?

Nabin is a five-time Bihar lawmaker with four consecutive terms from the Bankipur seat.

And as long as he remains a Member of Bihar's Legislative Assembly, he must participate in House proceedings, a dual role that might not fit into an increasingly busy schedule.

But that scheduled can be adjusted by bringing Nabin into the Rajya Sabha, which means he can be based in Delhi; Nabin's predecessor, JP Nadda, was similarly inducted into Parliament.

Nabin as a MP?

This could happen as early as April. Five Rajya Sabha seats from Bihar fall vacant then and the numbers guarantee two of those for the BJP. Two more will go to Nitish Kumar's JDU.

In fact, if the BJP wishes to push, then it could also pick up the fifth.

And, even if a nomination via Bihar is not possible, there are 30 other Rajya Sabha seats that fall vacant this year, a majority of which is guaranteed to the BJP. This means Nabin – the youngest National President in the BJP's history – could represent another state in the Upper House.

But top BJP sources told NDTV this might not be the case.

The Amit Shah parallel

Nabin, sources said, could continue as a Bihar MLA for the foreseeable future because the party does not want to snap that connection with the eastern state. There is precedence for this.

In 2013 Amit Shah was made the National General Secretary of the BJP and then, the following year, appointed its National President. Back then he was still a MLA – he had won Gujarat's Naranpura seat by a massive margin – and so he remained a state lawmaker too, participating in Gujarat Assembly several times. It wasn't till 2017 when he was brought into the Rajya Sabha.

And in 2019 he was elected to the Lok Sabha from Gandhinagar.

Political analysts, however, suggest the case isn't the same.

Shah remained an MLA so he could track the BJP's organisational strength in Gujarat.

This was necessary then because the party's state unit was in transition after the stunning 2014 Lok Sabha win that catapulted Narendra Modi and Shah to Delhi. And the latter's presence was still required in Gujarat to ensure victory in the 2017 Assembly election.

But Bihar is safe?

In Nabin's case, however, there is no danger to the BJP in Bihar. The party-led alliance holds a strong majority in the House even though there may be squabbles with the JDU.

But there are other reasons the BJP may want to keep its eyes trained on Bihar, beginning with its planning for life after Nitish Kumar. When Nabin was made the BJP's Working President in December there were murmurs he was being groomed to take over from Nitish Kumar.

The murmurs were dismissed but questions over Nitish's future remain, particularly given his health, and over how the JDU might react to losing its grasp on the chief ministerial post.

There is talk, for example, of six Congress MLAs joining the JDU, which, if it comes to pass, will tilt the balance of power in its favour, giving it two more than the BJP and making it the largest party in the state. For this reason, sources suggest, Nitin Nabin could remain a Bihar MLA.

Big year for Rajya Sabha

As an aside, this an important year for the Upper House with 71 seats falling vacant, six of which are currently held by union ministers and eight by the Congress. Thirty of the seats falling vacant are held by the BJP which holds 103 seats overall, a number that could increase by end-2026.

One of the Congress seats falling vacant is held by party boss Mallikarjun Kharge.

Also retiring in April are six MPs from Tamil Nadu, five from Bengal, and three from Assam.

All three states will hold Assembly elections this year.

The maximum number of MPs retiring from one state is 10 from Uttar Pradesh, of which eight are currently from the BJP, which is guaranteed to retain a similar number.