India's "very fast growing" ageing population could soon become its biggest crisis, Mohandas Pai, Chairman of Aarin Capital, has warned.
At the Stanford India Conference 2025, the former Infosys CFO cited data and long-term projections to conclude that India's population above the age of 60 currently stood at 130 million and would rise to 200 million in the near future.
"India's biggest problem is going to be ageing," Mr Pai said. He said this was because of the country's declining fertility rates, particularly in the southern states.
"India's fertility is down. Indian women are dominating and Indian women are going great," he remarked. The fertility rate in India has now dropped to 2.0, below the replacement rate, while southern states are seeing even lower rates ranging between 1.6 and 1.7, he said.
"The whole of the south is at 1.6 to 1.7. And we are 1,020 women for 1,000 men. We have more women than men in India," Mr Pai pointed out.
Highlighting gender progress in education, Mr Pai said, "The good news is we have more girls in school than boys. Many of the boys are rowdy boys who come out of school."
"Eighteen to twenty per cent of board positions now are women. In the startup industry, maybe 15-20 per cent are women," Mr Pai said.
Of the 100 students entering Class 1, about 80 complete Class 10. Dismissing commonly cited Pratham data as misleading because it was based only on rural schools, he added, "80 per cent of the 80 pass, that is 64. 56 enter Class 11 and 12, and 28 go to college. So in the age group of 18 to 23, only 28 per cent go to college."
He also pointed out the growing presence of women in higher education and the workforce. "We graduate more women than men. More women are coming out than men in UP, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh. In the South, we are running out."
He also spoke of India's slower population growth rate of 0.8 per cent.
"Most people in Delhi sitting in JNU don't even look at data and bemoan the lack of employment," Mr Pai continued, adding the South was facing a shortage of people for employment.
"People come from the North to work because UP is now growing and is very good and we want UP to grow. Bihar is yet to grow. We get people from Jharkhand, West Bengal, which is a failed state, and Kerala etc. They all come to Bengaluru and the South to work and we have a shortage of people," he said.
Mohandas Pai, a Padma Shri awardee, has spent over four decades in sectors like finance, tech, education, and the startup landscape. He currently chairs Aarin Capital and holds key positions in SEBI, IFSCA, and on the boards of major institutions.
